Week 4 Waiver Suggestions
Starting week four it usually gets pretty hard to find waivers but there were a few injuries this week so there are a few guys you should try to pick up. Here are our waiver suggestions for this week by position:
When looking for quarterbacks to pick up you are looking for the ones that will start of course and that had a lot of passing yards. Try to avoid players who had strong performances because of rushing yards or because they faced a very weak defense.
Jason Campbell: To my surprise Jason Campbell was dropped in quite a few leagues after a poor performance in week one. Campbell benefited from a decimated Saints secondary in week two but he still has a solid completion percentage of 65.6% after three weeks in this new offense. He won’t be a top ten quarterback but he is a solid pickup in case of an injury to your starter and could be a good start against certain defenses.
Trent Edwards: Edwards had an impressive start in his second NFL season and seems to have a much better understanding of the new offense in Buffalo. Similar to Campbell, Edwards won’t be a top quarterback but he is a solid backup and could be worth a start against the Rams in week four.
Brian Griese: Griese had a great week because he attempted 67 pass attempts but don’t expect that from him every week. He is the starting quarterback on a pretty good offense so he could be worth picking up if your starting QB has his bye week soon.
Kyle Orton: Orton has looked surprisingly good this season this year and has likely secured his quarterback job. He had his first two touchdown passes this week so he could continue on that note in the upcoming weeks and be a decent replacement for bye weeks.
Injuries are starting to happen at RB and there are a few guys you should keep your eye on:
Steve Slaton: Pick him up if he is still available. He is the starting back in an offense that should get better later in the year and will probably want to give the rookie all the opportunities they can.
Rudi Johnson: Rudi looked very good this week against the 49ers and the surprising part is that he had the majority of the carries even though Kevin Smith was healthy. The Lions are one of the worst teams in the NFL and have a week off followed by a game against the Bears and the Vikings. Don’t expect much from him in the coming weeks but any time you can pick up a potential starter at RB on waivers you have to try.
Correll Buckhalter: All signs seem to indicate that Westbrook’s ankle is fine and that he will play next week but Buckhalter will probably still get a number of carries and receptions. It’s pretty clear that Buckhalter is now Westbrook’s main backup so even picking up this guy just to handcuff Westbrook or have him sit on your bench could be worth it in deep leagues.
Le’Ron McClain: The only reason you’d pick up this guy is if you previously had Ray Rice on your roster or are in a very deep league. McGahee is the starter in this offense and McClain got more carries than usual because they wanted to rest McGahee so don’t expect games like this from him every week.
T.J. Duckett: We’d suggest you stay away from him. Maurice Morris is going to be back in week five (Seattle has a bye next week) and he will limit Duckett’s carries to five or so.
Here is what I wrote a few weeks back about picking up wide receivers off waivers:
Looking at the 35 players who also had more than 10 points in the first week in previous seasons, only 12 of those finished the year with more than 150 fantasy points (approximately the top 45) while only 7 of the 55 who had between 5 and 10 points in the first week finished with more than 150. That means of the 13 that had more than 10 points this season, only four or five will probably finish the year with more than 150 points so our goal is to find those guys and avoid the others. It is very interesting to note that of the 12 players in the past three seasons that had more than 10 points in the first week and more than 150 points for the season, nine of them had at least six receptions. The “success rate” for those with at least six receptions is 60% and only 14% for those with five receptions or less. If you are confident about a certain player he could be worth the gamble but know that your odds of finding a good receiver are significantly lower if he had few receptions.
The “six receptions rules” still applies this week so I added the players who had six receptions in week three to our waivers list from last week.
Matt Jones: Looked solid again in week three and the Jacksonville offense is starting to get on track. Their offensive line is improving and will be even better once Meester comes back.
Amani Toomer: Another solid week from Toomer, he’s a good player that you can trust to have four or five receptions every week. He’s a perfect replacement with bye weeks starting in week four.
Ike Hilliard: Similar to Toomer, Hilliard is a good player that you can trust to have four or five receptions every week. He’s a perfect replacement with bye weeks starting in week four.
Brandon Lloyd: He followed his five receptions in week two with six receptions in week three and it is now clear that he is the #1 WR in Chicago. As bad as the Chicago passing game is, Bernard Berrian managed to put up solid numbers in this offense so don’t underestimate what Lloyd could do this year.
Antonio Bryant: Bryant came out of nowhere and had 10 receptions in week three after having only three in his first two games. He did benefit from Griese attempting 67 passes and that won’t happen every week but any time a WR has 10 receptions in a game, you have to expect him to keep getting four or five week in and week out.
Chansi Stuckey: We haven’t been very high on Stuckey in the first two weeks because we figured that sooner or later Coles and Cotchery would be the two main targets in this offense. That seemed to be the case this week but Stuckey still had six receptions and has had a touchdown in each of the first three games. His number won’t be as good when the Jets face tougher defenses but he could have a decent year if he remains Favre’s favorite red zone target.
Josh Reed: The #2 WR job in this offense has never been very prestigious but the Bills are 3-0 and have had over 200 passing yards in each of their first three games. I could see Reed getting over 60 receptions for the first time in his career this season.
Antwaan Randle El: He did not do much in week three, keep him if you have room on your roster but there are better options out there.
Lance Moore: Moore has very good hands but he is very small. He had seven receptions this week and could be worth picking up with Shockey out for 3 to 6 weeks, Patten possibly out and Colston still absent for a few more weeks.
Bryant Johnson: We really liked this guy in the off-season; we thought that he was a very underrated wide receiver and he’d finally get his chance this year. He had only one reception for 25 yards against Detroit in week three so he is showing that he is indeed inconsistent but he could have big weeks.
Hank Baskett: It now seems that Baskett has won the #2 WR job behind Reggie Brown. Brown will be healthy next week so Baskett won’t get as many looks and he’ll get even less when Kevin Curtis returns in two or three weeks. Baskett is a decent replacement for the next few weeks but you’ll probably want to drop him after Curtis comes back.
A few wide receivers we would stay away from even if they had six receptions:
Jabar Gaffney: Had a decent week but this offense is not what it was last year and he is behind Moss and Welker.
Steve Smith (NYG): He had seven receptions but he is still behind Burress and Toomer on the depth chart so don’t expect a whole lot from him.
Unfortunately there is not enough data on tight ends to do an analysis as we did for wide receivers but the trend is likely the same. You are looking for players who had a good number of receptions and want to avoid those who had a good week because of a long catch, a touchdown or injuries to wide receivers.
Billy Miller: Shockey is out for three to six weeks and we all know Brees loves to spread the ball. Miller is now the starting TE on one of the best offenses in the NFC and is worth starting over quite a few other TE’s in the next few weeks with Colston and Shockey out.
Jerramy Stevens: He was inactive for the first two weeks of the season but he is the starting TE on an offense that could surprise some people this year. He could be worth picking up if you are thin at the TE position or if your starter has his bye in the coming weeks.
There are a number of wide receivers that surprised this week so you have to be very careful that you pick up the right ones. For those of you that have further questions about this list, feel free to post them in our forums and an expert will answer them as quickly as possible.
Also, for those looking for start or sit advice, I’d like to remind you that every Sunday morning from 11AM until 12:30 PM ET, you can ask your questions in our forums and have them answered within 30 minutes.