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Top 10 - High Risk and High Reward Players The top 10 of high risk and high reward players looks at players who have great potential this season but who have either had injury problems in the past or whose role could be reduced this year. You do not want to have more than one or maybe two of these players on your team and although I always recommend drafting lower risk players, after the first few rounds you can afford to take a few gambles. #10 Matt Leinart: Leinart
has not proven much in his first two NFL seasons but there is no doubt he has talent. The
Cardinals are not getting much respect but their passing offense ranked fifth last year
and tenth in 2006. They have a good offensive
line in pass protection and have one of the best duos of wide receivers in the NFL.
Everyone in #9 Todd Heap: Heap has
been a top four tight end in four of the last six years but in the other two years he
barely played and finished outside the top 20. It is anyone’s guess as to which Todd
Heap we will see this year but he has proven he can bounce back from injuries. The #8 Roy Williams: Williams has finished outside the top 30 in three of the last four years but he was in the top ten in 2006. Last year he missed four games but would still have been a top 20 receiver had he played all 16 games. There are 17 players who had between 220 and 250 fantasy points per 16 games but had a drop of between 5% and 10% in fantasy points per 16 games from the previous season. Of these 17 players, six had more than 270 points in the next season, eight had less than 220 and three were in between. That means he basically has a 35% chance of being a top ten wide receiver but also has a 45% chance of having a difficult season. On top of that, Williams has missed nine games in only four seasons in the NFL and we are also not sure how the Lions passing game will do without Mike Martz. #7 Andre Johnson: Johnson missed seven games last season because of an injury but he is not on this list because he is an injury-prone player. Johnson has never had more than 250 fantasy points in a season or finished in the top ten in his five NFL seasons but he is bring selected as the seventh best receiver. However, if Johnson had performed as well as he did for a full 16 games season last year, he would have been the second best fantasy receiver behind Randy Moss. Last year was his first year with a quarterback other than David Carr so there is an explanation for this sudden emergence; the big question is whether or not he can keep it up for 16 games. #6 Brandon Jacobs: In his first season as a full-time starter Jacobs averaged an amazing 5.0 yards per carry. Jacobs is unbelievably tough and strong but the problem is he is so big that the only way to tackle him is to target his legs and he cannot remain healthy because of that. Jacobs had over 15 carries in eight of his eleven games last season. Had he played all 16 games like he did in those eight, he would have been the third best running back in fantasy leagues last year. He has great upside but Bradshaw could steal some carries from him and he had so many different injuries last year that no one can expect him to play a full season. #5 Marvin Harrison: No one
could have predicted before last season that Marvin Harrison would find himself on our top
ten of high risk players this year. He had missed only two games in his last eight seasons
and he had been a top ten receiver in every one of those. Last year he played five games
and ranked outside the top 100. We should have a better feel of how #4 Matt Schaub: One of the reasons that Andre Johnson was in our top ten is Matt Schaub. He attempted more than 20 passes in only eight games because of injuries but in those eight games he had over 2,100 yards. Schaub would have been a top ten quarterback if he had been able to play like that for 16 games. The problem with Schaub is that last year was his first as a starter and his only weapon on offense is Andre Johnson. Schaub has not proven anything but seven of his nine touchdown passes last year were in the four games that he and Johnson both played. If both of these players can stay healthy for a full-season, Schaub will for sure be a top ten quarterback and could be a top five. #3 Earnest Graham: In his final eight starts of the season, Graham had 175 fantasy points in point per reception leagues and would have been the second best fantasy running back right behind LaDainian Tomlinson had he been the starter for all 16 games. He is not much of an injury risk but the question is whether he can perform at that level for 16 games and whether or not he will continue to have as many touches with Warrick Dunn, Michael Bennett and Cadillac Williams on the roster. #2 Ronnie Brown: Brown has missed 13 games in only three NFL seasons and has never finished amongst the top 20 fantasy running backs. However, last year he was somehow on pace for a career year and his performance over seven games would have made him the best fantasy running back on a team that finished the year with one win. He averaged 5.1 yards per carry last season and this year the offensive line is improved. However, his knee is not fully recovered, he may have to split carries with Ricky Williams and the departure of Cam Cameron could hurt his production; all of that makes him a very high risk player. #1 Donovan McNabb: When you think high risk and high reward, you think of Donovan McNabb. He has only played all 16 games once in the past six seasons but over those six seasons he has averaged 338 fantasy points per 16 games which would make him a top three quarterback in most years. There is no doubt that McNabb is extremely talented and has a very good surrounding cast but if you draft him you have to hope he remains healthy for most of the season and that he plays during your playoffs. |