Newsletter

Top Quarterback or Quarterback Tandem
(page 2)

One advantage of having two QBs in the 13 to 16 range is that you will have a better backup when your starter is on his bye week. The QBs drafted in this range average 240 fantasy points while QBs drafted in the 19 to 24 range average only 182. This means that if you choose to draft two QBs in that range, your backup QB will average 58 more points than if you had a top QB and a below average backup. 56 more points is an average of 3.5 more points per week so the 27 points difference now becomes only 24 (or 31) since you will have to start that backup during your starter’s bye week.

The calculations made above assume that between your starter and your backup you will have started the QB who will have the most points at the end of the season in all weeks except his bye week. There is however one additional advantage of having two good QBs which is that you can adjust for matchups and start the one which you believe has the most favorable matchup every week.

We decided to look at weekly statistics from the last three years to see which strategy would have been better if you started your QB with the most points every week. Since there are injuries, we also included an average QB you could have gotten off waivers and who played all 16 games. For example, for 2008 we used Kerry Collins and this makes sure the average for a top QB does not drop significantly because of a serious injury, Tom Brady for example. Here is a table which shows the total number of points you would have gotten from your QBs using both strategies:

As you can see, since 2006 both strategies give you about the same amount of points on average. Unfortunately we do not have statistics to test this all the way back to 2003 but the averages from 2006 to 2008 are pretty similar than the ones from 2003 to 2005. Some might argue that it is pretty unrealistic to assume you would be able to pick the best QB every single week and they would have a point. However, we said previously that the difference was 24 points between the two strategies and now it is only two points. Even if you don’t pick the best one every single week, that difference would still drop to around 10 to 15 points depending on how often you are correct. The reason it is an advantage to have two QBs of similar talent is that you have a capable backup who can play when your starter faces a tough passing defense. When you have a top starter and a below average backup you will usually play your starter almost every week unless the matchup is very unfavorable.

It is still early but at this point the QBs in the 13 to 16 range are Carson Palmer, Matt Cassel, Eli Manning and Matt Hasselbeck. Matt Schaub and David Garrard are also around that range, both of whom are QBs that we believe could be undervalued this season. As shown in the article above, you can expect to earn about 10 to 15 fewer points from a QB duo composed of two of those QBs than you would with Brees, Manning or Brady and a weaker backup. That difference might increase to about 15 to 20 points if you earn six points per TD pass. The difference is that you might spend a ninth round pick on Cassel and a tenth round pick on Garrard as opposed to a second or third round pick on Brees, Manning or Brady. You could select a WR like Reggie Wayne or Marques Colston in the second or third round instead of a top QB and you would be at a slight disadvantage at the QB position but would gain a large advantage at the WR position.

For those who are involved in auctions, the advantage of this strategy is even easier to demonstrate. Using suggested auction prices from Ask The Commish which you can find here, Brees, Manning and Brady are worth respectively $20, $18 and $17 while QBs in the 13 to 16 range are worth between $4 and $6. Include a backup QB at $1 and the top QB strategy will cost you about $19 on average while the QB tandem will cost you only $10 out of your $100 budget. That is 10% of your budget that you are spending on a top QB to earn less than one point per week on average.

Previous Page