Ultimate Fantasy Football Strategy - Rookie Running Backs

Rookie Running Backs
(page 2)

Another interesting thing I noticed by looking at rookie running backs is that the higher they were drafted in the NFL Draft, the better they performed compared to their average draft position. Since 2000, there have been ten running backs drafted in the first 12 picks of the first round and half of them performed better than their average draft position in fantasy drafts. The following table compares rookie running backs drafted in the first 12 picks of the NFL Draft with non-rookie running backs who ranked between 14th and 29th in average draft position:

	Average Draft Position	Average Rank	% Improve
Rookies (top 12 in NFL Draft)	21.1	27.3	50%
Non-Rookies (14 to 29)	21.3	30.9	40.8%

Even though the sample for rookies is quite small there is an obvious difference between this data and the one presented earlier. This seems to indicate that rookie running backs drafted in the first 12 picks of the NFL Draft are generally underrated by fantasy managers. My explanation for this would be that fantasy manages tend to select players based on the situation with their respective team but often forget to take into account which back is most talented. For example, last season, early first round picks Marshawn Lynch and Adrian Peterson ranked 22nd and 23rd in average draft position while late 2nd round pick Brandon Jackson ranked 32nd. Jackson was selected much earlier than he should have been because of his favorable situation with Green Bay and ended up disappointing many fantasy owners.

Now that I have shown that rookie running backs drafted in the top 12 picks are undervalued, let’s see how the statistics change for the group of running backs that were not drafted in the top 12. The following table compares the rookie running backs not drafted in the first 12 picks of the NFL Draft with non-rookie running backs that ranked between 21st and 69th in average draft position:

	Average Draft Position	Average Rank	% Improve
Rookies (non top 12 in NFL Draft)	45.1	60.0	25.5%
Non-Rookies (21 to 69)	45.3	55.6	40.8%

As you can see, this data is completely opposite to the one presented in the previous section. Your chances of making a good pick with a rookie running back are 15% lower than they are with a non-rookie running back.

The data presented in this article makes it quite evident that the only rookie running backs that might be worth drafting in your fantasy drafts are ones drafted in the first 12 picks of the NFL Draft. In 2008, Darren McFadden is the only running back likely to be drafted in the first 12 picks so I would personally stay away from all other rookie running backs. As far as McFadden is concerned, it will be interesting to see where he ends up and what his average draft position will be. One more thing to take into consideration however is that McFadden is being compared to Adrian Peterson by many and after Peterson’s exceptional rookie campaign, McFadden might be drafted earlier than he should in fantasy drafts. Once the NFL Draft is completed it will be easier to analyze his situation but as far as the other rookie running backs are concerned, they are generally overrated and are not worth the risk.