Rookie Running Backs
(page 2)
Another interesting thing I
noticed by looking at rookie running backs is that the higher they
were drafted in the NFL Draft, the better they perform compared to
their average draft position. Since 2000, there have been 11 running
backs drafted in the first 12 picks of the first round and five of
them performed better than their average draft position in fantasy
drafts. The following table compares rookie running backs drafted in
the first 12 picks in the NFL Draft with non-rookie running backs
who ranked between 14th and 29th in average draft position:
|
|
Average Draft
Position |
Average Rank |
% Improve |
|
Rookies (top 12 in NFL Draft) |
20.6 |
28.6 |
45.5% |
|
Non-Rookies (14 to 28) |
20.7 |
30.2 |
40.7% |
Even though the sample for
rookies is quite small there is an obvious difference between this
data and the one presented earlier. This seems to indicate that
rookie running backs drafted in the first 12 picks of the NFL Draft
are generally underrated by fantasy managers.
Now that I have shown that
rookie running backs drafted in the top 12 picks are undervalued,
let’s see how the statistics change for the group of running backs
that were not drafted in the top 12. The following table compares
the rookie running backs not drafted in the first 12 picks of the
NFL Draft with non-rookie running backs that ranked between 21st and
69th in average draft position:
|
|
Average Draft
Position |
Average Rank |
% Improve |
|
Rookies (non top 12 in NFL Draft) |
44.1 |
57.0 |
30.4% |
|
Non-Rookies (21 to 68) |
44.4 |
54.5 |
41.6% |
As you can see, this data is
completely opposite to the one presented in the previous section.
Your chances of making a good pick with a rookie running back are
11.2% lower than they are with a non-rookie running back. This
difference is the equivalent to drafting your running backs one full
round before their average draft position.
The data presented in this
article makes it quite evident that the only rookie running backs
that might be worth drafting in your fantasy drafts are ones drafted
in the first 12 picks of the NFL Draft. In 2009, Knowshon Moreno is
the only running back who was drafted in the first 12 picks. Other
rookie running backs such as Chris Wells, Donald Brown and LeSean
McCoy are likely to be overvalued but do not rule them out
completely because in some drafts they could fall lower than
expected.
|
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