To
compare those numbers with those at other positions, we looked at total
touchdowns per touches (receptions + carries) for running backs that had
over 200 touches in two consecutive seasons:
|
|
Less than 0.018 |
0.018 to 0.024 |
0.024 to 0.030 |
0.030 to 0.036 |
0.036 to 0.042 |
More than 0.042 |
|
Number |
72 |
62 |
74 |
66 |
41 |
63 |
|
Avg |
0.013 |
0.021 |
0.027 |
0.033 |
0.039 |
0.052 |
|
Avg Next Year |
0.023 |
0.025 |
0.028 |
0.029 |
0.031 |
0.037 |
|
Change |
76.9% |
19.0% |
3.7% |
-12.1% |
-20.5% |
-28.8% |
As you
can see the numbers for running backs are very similar to quarterbacks.
Here is once again the formula that best predicts a running back’s total
number of touchdowns based on his previous year’s touchdown totals:
0.018 + 0.364 x previous year’s ratio. Based on that formula which is
very similar to the formula for quarterbacks, here are the five running
backs whose touchdown numbers are expected to increase the most and the
five who are expected to decrease the most:
|
Top 5 Decrease |
|
Top 5 Increase |
|
|
LenDale White |
-39% |
Cedric Benson |
+147% |
|
DeAngelo Williams |
-37% |
Jamal Lewis |
+72% |
|
Brandon Jacobs |
-37% |
Ryan Grant |
+55% |
|
Maurice Jones-Drew |
-30% |
Willie Parker |
+13% |
|
Brian Westbrook |
-27% |
Clinton Portis |
+10% |
Three
very interesting players on the list of increases are Cedric Benson,
Jamal Lewis and Ryan Grant. All three should still receive the large
majority of carries for their team as they did last year so they are
prime candidates to have very nice increases in touchdowns scored in
2009. You do need to be careful with this list however because even if
Maurice Jones-Drew should see a decrease in touchdowns per touches, he
will see an increase in touches this year so you shouldn’t necessarily
stay away from him (we actually believe he is undervalued this year).
Here are
the same charts as well as the formula for wide receivers that had over
40 receptions in two consecutive seasons:
|
|
Less than 0.05 |
0.05 to 0.07 |
0.07 to 0.09 |
0.09 to 0.11 |
0.11 to 0.13 |
More than 0.13 |
|
Number |
141 |
139 |
177 |
135 |
108 |
150 |
|
Avg |
0.033 |
0.061 |
0.080 |
0.100 |
0.119 |
0.164 |
|
Avg Next Year |
0.075 |
0.079 |
0.079 |
0.089 |
0.088 |
0.113 |
|
Change |
127.3% |
29.5% |
-1.3% |
-11.0% |
-26.1% |
-31.1% |
Formula:
0.062 + 0.271 x previous year’s ratio
As you
can see from the formula, wide receivers have the most inconsistent
numbers compared to quarterbacks and running backs. The following chart
shows the five guys who are expected to see the biggest increase or
biggest drop compared to last year but I removed receivers who changed
teams or whose role is expected to decrease significantly this year:
|
Top 5 Decrease |
|
Top 5 Increase |
|
|
Randy Moss |
-34% |
Steve Smith (NYG) |
+281% |
|
Calvin Johnson |
-33% |
Wes Welker |
+157% |
|
Bernard Berrian |
-30% |
DeSean Jackson |
+119% |
|
Kevin Walter |
-26% |
Ted Ginn |
+101% |
|
Lance Moore |
-24% |
Greg Camarillo |
+98% |
The top
five who are expected to increase are not always great sleepers because
sometimes you don’t know which ones will maintain their number of
receptions but Welker seems to be a very good bet to increase his number
of touchdowns. As far as the ones who are expected to decrease, you will
find some of our most overvalued players in this group but you have to
be careful with a guy like Randy Moss who has high touchdown numbers
every year.
The data
is a little too limited to come up with a formula for tight ends but I
assume that this would also apply to them. Some of the tight ends that
had high ratios that you might want to be careful with are Anthony
Fasano, Kevin Boss and Vishante Shiancoe while players like Jeremy
Shockey, Chris Cooley, Zach Miller and Owen Daniels could improve.
In
conclusion I hope this article has made you understand that players with
a lot of touchdowns will not necessarily be able to repeat those numbers
in the following season and you should not assume that they will. When
you are studying a player and deciding whether or not to draft him, take
a look at his touchdown number and keep in mind that it will likely vary
much more than his other statistics.
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