Earlier
this summer we published a statistical analysis to help us find wide receivers that may
have breakout seasons. You can find this article by clicking here.
The definition of a breakout wide receiver in that article is: at least 150 points in a
point per reception scoring system and an increase of at least 40 points or 25%. In this
article we will look in detail at the wide receivers that respect those criterions and try
and determine which are more likely to breakout.
Second
year:
Success rate: 17 of 33 – 51.5%
Dropped by 25%: 3 of 33 – 9.1%
Average improvement for all candidates: 54 points – 26.8%
Average improvement for breakout WRs: 101 points – 53.8%
2008 candidates:
2007
Points
2008
Points to Breakout
Expected
Points Based on ADP
Dwayne
Bowe
200
240
216
Calvin
Johnson
159
196
224
James
Jones
127
159
110
Anthony
Gonzalez
113
150
183
As
you can see, you can find some very good breakout wide receivers amongst this group.
According to historical statistics, two of these should breakout. Calvin Johnson is the
most likely of the group since he will be the number two wide receiver in Detroit while
Gonzalez will be number two or three depending on Harrison and Jones should be number
three in Green Bay. Dwayne Bowe already had an exceptional rookie year and the only one in
the group of 33 that had similar statistics is Andre Johnson in 2003 and he had 229 points
in his second season; it is however too small of a sample to come to a conclusion. Based
on the average improvement for the players that respected the same criterions as these
three, people expect Johnson and Gonzalez to breakout this season (based on ADP) and Jones
is quite undervalued. Jones might not breakout but he is the number three receiver on a
very good offense and could be a steal late in drafts.
Third
year:
Success rate: 27 of 74 – 36.5%
Dropped by 25%: 16 of 74 – 21.6%
Average improvement for all candidates: 24 points – 18.0%
Average improvement for breakout WRs: 93 points – 70.5%
2008 candidates:
2007
Points
2008
Points to Breakout
Expected
Points Based on ADP
Santonio
Holmes
196
236
230
Holmes
had a solid season last year but the problem with third year receivers is that they are
hit or miss. There is a high percentage that drops by more than 25% and that is a big risk
to take on a guy you will likely have to draft in the fourth round. This year, the
Steelers lost LG Alan Faneca, added WR Limas Sweed and WR Hines Ward should be fully
healthy; three things that should hurt Holmes this year. Holmes did have his 196 points in
only 13 games last year but even then, in our opinion, he is being overvalued this year.
Fourth
year:
Success rate: 13 of 32 – 40.6%
Dropped by 25%: 4 of 32 – 12.5%
Average improvement for candidates: 31 points – 22.9%
Average improvement for breakout WRs: 82 points – 57.1%
2008 candidates:
2007
Points
2008
Points to Breakout
Expected
Points Based on ADP
Mark
Clayton
101
150
143
Nate
Washington
104
150
50
Vincent
Jackson
121
151
150
Washington
probably won’t improve over last year with the addition of Limas Sweed and you could
probably draft him in the last round of your draft. That leaves Mark Clayton and Vincent
Jackson as the two potential breakout candidates. Vincent Jackson is slightly undervalued
based on average draft position and Clayton is slightly overvalued but both are pretty
accurate. However, the fourth year receivers that do breakout usually have monstrous
seasons. Welker in 2007, Stallworth in 2005, Bennett and Wayne in 2004 and Ward in 2001
all respected these criterions. The average improvement is over 100 points or 83.2% for
receivers such as Clayton and Jackson that breakout. Jackson had a difficult year but he
really stepped up his game in the playoffs with 18 receptions for 300 yards and 2
touchdowns in 3 games so he could be in for big things in 2008. Clayton struggled last
year but 34 year old Derrick Mason won’t have 103 catches again so Clayton should
steal some of those and could also have a big year. These two players can be drafted in
rounds 11 and 12 so the risk is relatively low and if the statistics prove true, one of
them could be a big sleeper.
Fifth
year:
Success rate: 15 of 43 – 34.9%
Dropped by 25%: 3 of 43 – 7.0%
Average improvement for candidates: 37 points – 31.0%
Average improvement for breakout WRs: 103 points – 88.8%
2008 candidates:
2007
Points
2008
Points to Breakout
Expected
Points Based on ADP
D.J.
Hackett
88
150
150
Devard
Darling
69
150
75
Devery
Henderson
79
150
75
Drew
Carter
114
150
75
Keary
Colbert
65
150
75
Lee
Evans
170
210
214
Michael
Clayton
52
150
75
Michael
Jenkins
130
163
92
Roy
Williams
177
217
233
As
you can see there are a lot of potential candidates but there is one criterion that we did
not address and it is that the players had to have over 300 yards to be considered in the
analysis. Looking at these receivers, Darling is third on Kansas City, Henderson fourth on
New Orleans, Carter third on Oakland, Colbert fourth on Denver, Jenkins third on Atlanta
and Clayton third on Tampa Bay. These six players barely reached 300 yards last season and
many of them might not be able to this year. The one in this group that could be worth
some consideration is Michael Clayton since the two receivers ahead of him on the depth
chart are 36 and 32 years old so he may be worth a late selection in very deep leagues.
This leaves Hackett, Evans and Williams as three who could breakout. One or two of these
could breakout but all three are overvalued compared to the average improvement that
similar receivers had. It doesn’t seem like Williams is worth the gamble since you
will have to draft him too early, Evans has shown he could be a top receiver but has to
form a connection with Edwards and Hackett is very talented but has to beat out Muhammad
for the number two spot in Carolina. All in all most of these guys are being overvalued
too much to be worth drafting but keep an eye on Hackett since he is the most likely
breakout candidate out of this group if he is the number two receiver in Carolina.
