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Breakout Wide Receivers - Part Two

Earlier this summer we published a statistical analysis to help us find wire receivers that may have breakout seasons in 2009. You can find this article by clicking here. The definition of a breakout wide receiver in that article is: at least 150 points in a point per reception scoring system and an increase of at least 40 points or 25%. In this article we will look in detail at the receivers that respect our criteria to try and determine which are more likely to breakout.

Second year:
Success rate: 27 of 62 – 43.5%
Dropped by 25%: 3 of 62 – 4.8%
Average improvement for all candidates: 47 points – 41.4%
Average improvement for breakout WRs: 98 points – 87.5%

2009 candidates:

The group of second year receivers is generally a very good one as the ones that do breakout improve by almost 100 points. According to many, Jackson is the most likely to breakout but he had 29 of his 62 catches in the first six games of the year when Curtis was out with an injury so we find it difficult to believe that he could show much improvement this year. Jordy Nelson is a very talented receiver but he will still be behind Jennings, Driver and Jones on the depth chart so he is unlikely to breakout unless one of those three get hurt. Davone Bess was very impressive in the final five games of the 2008 season when Camarillo was out. He will likely see an increased role as the #3 WR this year but it will be hard for him to improve much. This leaves Donnie Avery who, in our opinion, is the most likely breakout candidate. The Rams offense should be better with an improved offensive line and a healthy Steven Jackson. Avery should be targeted much more often with the departure of Holt and he has room to improve both his yards per reception and touchdowns per reception numbers.

Third year:
Success rate: 29 of 86 – 33.7%
Dropped by 25%: 13 of 86 – 15.1%
Average improvement for all candidates: 30 points – 24.3%
Average improvement for breakout WRs: 92 points – 71.0%

2009 candidates:

Similar to second year receivers, third year receivers have great potential but this group has a bigger downside since 15.1% see a drop of 25% or more and only 33.7% breakout. Gonzalez has caught 35 passes in the nine games that Harrison has missed in the past two years but unfortunately the average manager already expects Gonzalez to improve by 44% which would give him about 70 catches for 1,000 yards and 7 TDs. There is no doubt that he is a prime candidate to breakout but he is not a receiver that we recommend targeting because most people also expect him to improve quite a bit over last year. Ginn played very well with the Dolphins last year and he should score a few more touchdowns but he can’t get many more receptions with Camarillo and Bess right behind him. Steve Smith and Chansi Stuckey are two receivers that we have ranked higher than most experts and whom we strongly believe could breakout this season. Both were #3 receivers last year and should move up on the depth chart this year but they aren’t expected to improve all that much based on their average draft position. Smith is the more likely of the two to breakout but Stuckey could be a late sleeper and is well worth targeting in the last few rounds of your draft.

Fourth year:
Success rate: 29 of 77 – 37.7%
Dropped by 25%: 10 of 77 – 13.0%
Average improvement for candidates: 26 points – 19.1%
Average improvement for breakout WRs: 85 points – 61.1%

2009 candidates:

As you can see, the fourth year receivers are very similar to third year receivers in terms of breakout probability and average improvement. We can rule out Baskett and Avant who won’t be targeted much this year with the return of Curtis and the addition of Maclin. Holmes should improve slightly over last year but he is being drafted as a top 25 WR despite never catching more than 55 passes in a season and being the number two receiver with the Steelers. He may come close to 200 points and could improve by 40 points over last year but even if he does that, he is not worth his average draft position. Hester, Hixon and Camarillo are in our opinion three very good breakout candidates who are at the very least slightly undervalued. Hester had 25 catches in the final six games of the 2008 season and should be even better this year with Cutler as his quarterback. Hixon had 32 catches in the seven games where Burress was limited in 2008 and should only improve with one more year under his belt. He will be the #1 receiver on a very good offense and is being drafted outside the top 40. Hixon is one of those players that could really surprise and easily finish amongst the top 20 receivers in 2009. Finally, Greg Camarillo isn’t receiving much respect despite catching 55 passes in 11 games in 2008. There are rumors that he could lose his starting job this season but he is still worth a late pick based on what he showed last year.

Fifth year:
Success rate: 25 of 71 – 35.2%
Dropped by 25%: 8 of 71 – 11.3%
Average improvement for candidates: 26 points – 21.8%
Average improvement for breakout WRs: 81 points – 68.6%

2009 candidates:

There are a surprising number of receivers that surprise in their fifth NFL season but it isn’t always easy to find the right ones. Of this group of five we can rule out Clayton as a breakout receiver even though he is probably being undervalued in fantasy drafts. Rashied Davis is still fighting for the #3 receiver job in Chicago but he could still surprise with Jay Cutler as his quarterback. The main candidates to breakout however are Braylon Edwards, Mark Bradley and Nate Washington. Washington should finally get his chance this season as a top two receiver but he suffered an injury in the pre-season and could miss the beginning of the season. Braylon Edwards should bounce back after a difficult season in 2008 but the average manager already expects him to improve by close to 35% so he isn’t particularly good value this season. Bradley is a very intriguing player because he played well in 12 games with the Chiefs last year and has a much better quarterback this season but he will have to earn the number two receiver job first.

Of the 19 wide receivers named in this article, at least 15 should reach 250 receiving yards which means that based on historical statistics, five or six should breakout. The average improvement for our breakout wide receivers is about 90 points so one or more of these receivers could bring you a fantasy championship, you just have to pick the right ones.