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2009 Breakout Running Backs - Summary

Draft Recommendation: Running backs who have between two and five years of experience in the NFL and a high yards per carry average but few carries are the best breakout candidates.

Every year there are running backs that come out of nowhere and are amongst the best fantasy performers. Although the performance of the offensive line has a big impact on a running back’s statistics, I believe there are still certain statistical criteria that can increase the chances of finding a breakout running back. I decided to look at all running backs in years two through five and find out which running backs are most likely to breakout. Moreover I looked at the RBs that did breakout and tried to find criteria that differentiate RBs that do breakout from the ones that do not.

First of all I just want to clarify that I am using the term breakout a little loosely and I still include RBs who might have had a strong rookie season, struggled in their second season and had a solid third season. The two criteria that a running back had to respect to be considered a breakout running back are: 

-At least 150 points in a point per reception scoring system
-An increase of at least 40 points per 16 games or a 25% increase in points per 16 games.

I used different criteria depending on the years of experience of the running backs but in general, running backs that had a higher yards per carry but fewer carries and fewer touchdowns are more likely to breakout.

Here are the candidates for 2009 along with their percentage chance to breakout, assuming they play at least ten games and rush for 250 yards:

Second year – 45.2%: Darren McFadden, Jamaal Charles, Peyton Hillis, Ray Rice and Tashard Choice

Third year – 56.0%: Ahmad Bradshaw, Fred Jackson and Michael Bush

Fourth year – 31.3%: None

Fifth year – 35.7%: Frank Gore and Cedric Benson

It is unfortunately not enough to know which players might breakout, and although amongst the ten players I mentioned there are probably three or four that will have very good seasons, there are other factors you will want to consider. The most important of those factors is where you expect these players to be drafted. Knowing that three or four of these guys will breakout is a nice start but it is also important to know which running backs the average manager expects to improve in order to find value in the draft and avoid overpayments. It is also important to analyze the situation for each of those ten running backs individually in order to increase our chances of finding the ones that will breakout. You will be able to find both of the above within the next few weeks in other articles on this website.

See the complete analysis