Earlier
this summer we published a statistical analysis to help us find running backs that may
have breakout seasons. You can find this article by clicking here. The
definition of a breakout running back in that article is: at least 150 points in a point
per reception scoring system and an increase of at least 40 points or 25%. In this article
we will look in detail at the running backs that respect those criterions and try and
determine which are more likely to breakout.
Second
year:
Success rate: 19 of 54 – 35.2%
Dropped by 25%: 8 of 54 – 14.8%
Average improvement for all candidates: 33 points – 23.7%
Average improvement for breakout RBs: 126 points – 100.3%
2008 candidates:
2007
Points
2008
Points to Breakout
Expected
Points Based on ADP
Kenton
Keith
98
150
50
Second
year running backs are usually pretty good breakout candidates but unfortunately this is
not a very good year. Kenton Keith will have to fight for the backup job in Indianapolis
and even if he does win it, Addai will get a high percentage of the carries. There are
other candidates that met every criteria but one. Lynch respected every criterion except
less than 250 carries and the nine running backs that did that averaged a decrease of 14%
in fantasy points. As for the running backs that respected every criterion except two or
more touchdowns, they average an increase of 36% but only three had more than 150 points.
Pierre Thomas and Selvin Young are both in that situation this season.
Third
year:
Success rate: 16 of 33 – 48.5%
Dropped by 25%: 2 of 33 – 6.1%
Average improvement for all candidates: 64 points – 56.6%
Average improvement for breakout RBs: 116 points – 97.8%
2008 candidates:
2007
Points
2008
Points to Breakout
Expected
Points Based on ADP
DeAngelo
Williams
142
178
135
Jerious
Norwood
123
154
115
Laurence
Maroney
135
169
205
Leon
Washington
111
150
90
Maurice
Jones-Drew
212
265
230
There
are usually very few running backs that respect these criterions but this year there are
surprisingly five that do. This group has an amazing breakout success rate of 48.5% and
only 6.1% have a decrease of more than 25%. Looking at the expected points, only two of
these five are expected to improve and one of those is only a small improvement. Williams
and Norwood would have been perfect breakout candidates had their teams not added Stewart
and Turner. However, last year both of these guys had over 100 points as the number two
back on their team and this year they will only be behind players who have never been a
starting running back in the NFL. The risk is very low since based on their average draft
position they are expected to be worse than they were last season so they are two players
you should strongly consider drafting. Leon Washington is also going to be a backup this
year but he has the most improved offensive line in the NFL and Thomas Jones will be 30
years old when the season begins. He should improve this year and could have a huge year
if Jones has an injury; all you have to risk is a 14th round pick. Maurice Jones-Drew has
been a top 15 running back for two consecutive seasons averaging only slightly more than
10 carries per game. The worst case scenario is he once again has 170 carries but if
Taylor starts to slow down at 32 years old, imagine what Jones-Drew could do with 250 to
300 carries. Maroney is on the best offense in the NFL and should improve over last year
but he is being drafted quite early. He is a good player but not as much of a discount as
the other four in this group.
Fourth
year:
Success rate: 17 of 75 – 22.7%
Dropped by 25%: 16 of 75 – 21.3%
Average improvement for candidates: 13 points – 9.1%
Average improvement for breakout RBs: 101 points – 69.0%
2008 candidates:
2007
Points
2008
Points to Breakout
Expected
Points Based on ADP
Brandon
Jacobs
178
223
200
Frank
Gore
243
304
290
Ronnie
Brown
168
210
205
Fourth
year running backs are not great breakout candidates and almost as many drop by 25% than
increase by 25%. This year there are three running backs that fall in this group. Frank
Gore would have to increase by close to 25% for him to be worth his average draft position
and that with a much weaker offensive line than last year. He was still the seventh best
running back last season but last year was an off year for running backs which should not
be the case again this year. Brandon Jacobs and Ronnie Brown are two players that could
easily improve by 25% or drop by 25%. Both are injury-prone players that seem to be
slightly overvalued but could have huge years if they stay healthy. If you draft either of
these however, make sure that you handcuff them and that your other running backs are
pretty safe options.
Fifth
year:
Success rate: 10 of 29 – 34.5%
Dropped by 25%: 4 of 29 – 13.8%
Average improvement for candidates: 36 points – 22.3%
Average improvement for breakout RBs: 114 points – 74.1%
2008 candidates:
2007
Points
2008
Points to Breakout
Expected
Points Based on ADP
Kevin
Jones
159
199
95
Steven
Jackson
201
251
345
Willie
Parker
183
229
185
Willis
McGahee
235
294
225
There
are four running backs that fall in this group this season but unfortunately we don’t
think many will breakout. Kevin Jones is now with the Bears and will have to fight for the
starting job and even if he does win it, he has very limited potential with that offensive
line. Steven Jackson is one of the most overvalued players in fantasy football this season
by being drafted as the third running back. He is on an offense that is not what it used
to be and drafting him third ahead of much safer options like Addai and Portis does not
make much sense. Willie Parker is a good back but the Steelers drafted Rashard Mendenhall
and lost Alan Faneca both of which will hurt Parker’s numbers. This leaves Willis
McGahee who averaged 20 carries per game in his first year with the Ravens and now has Cam
Cameron as his offensive coordinator. Jonathan Ogden retired but McGahee had more points
per game in the six games that Ogden missed than in the other nine where they were both in
the line-up. McGahee could have an excellent year this year and is being very undervalued
in our opinion.
