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Breakout Running Backs - Part Two

Earlier this summer we published a statistical analysis to help us find running backs that may have breakout seasons in 2009. You can find this article by clicking here. The definition of a breakout running back in that article is: at least 150 points in a point per reception scoring system and an increase of at least 40 points or 25%. In this article we will look in detail at the running backs that respect our criteria to try and determine which are more likely to breakout.

Second year:
Success rate: 14 of 31 – 45.2%
Dropped by 25%: 1 of 31 – 3.2%
Average improvement for all candidates: 59 points – 49.3%
Average improvement for breakout RBs: 123 points – 103.5%

2009 candidates:

Second year running backs are usually pretty good breakout candidates and this year, five running backs respect our criteria. Choice and Charles are unlikely to reach the 250 yards minimum to be included in our analysis but the other three should see significant playing time this year. Unfortunately, McFadden and Rice are already expected to breakout based on their average draft position but both could still surprise. The average improvement for the ones that do breakout is 123 points and McFadden and Rice are only expected to improve by 63 and 51 points respectively. Another very intriguing player is Peyton Hillis who was very impressive in limited action last year and has been equally impressive in training camp this year. Assuming all three of these guys get at least 250 rushing yards, their average improvement is expected to be close to 60 points and the average manager expects McFadden to improve by 63, Rice by 51 and Hillis to be worse than last year. In other words, McFadden and Rice are probably a little undervalued since both have a good chance of breaking out and Hillis could be very undervalued.
 

Third year:
Success rate: 14 of 25 – 56.0%
Dropped by 25%: 3 of 25 – 12.0%
Average improvement for all candidates: 56 points – 42.1%
Average improvement for breakout RBs: 104 points – 66.8%

2009 candidates:

There are usually very few running backs that respect these criteria but this year there are surprisingly three that do. Unfortunately none of them hold the starting job on their respective teams but they could all see an increased role if they impress. Based on average draft position, none of the three are expected to breakout and the average manager expects them to improve by an average of six points while historically they should improve by an average of 56. One of these three guys will probably surprise in 2009 and could be the key to a fantasy championship. In our opinion that guy will be Fred Jackson because of the improved line in Buffalo and because he will get a chance to show what he can do in the first three games of the year with Lynch’s suspension.
 

Fourth year:
Success rate: 10 of 32 – 31.3%
Dropped by 25%: 9 of 32 – 28.1%
Average improvement for candidates: 8 points – 4.4%
Average improvement for breakout RBs: 89 points – 55.6%

2009 candidates: none

Fifth year:
Success rate: 15 of 42 – 35.7%
Dropped by 25%: 9 of 42 – 21.4%
Average improvement for candidates: 36 points – 24.5%
Average improvement for breakout RBs: 130 points – 97.4%

2009 candidates:

This group of running backs is the one that is the most surprising since the ones that do breakout improve by an average of 130 points. Both Gore and Benson are undervalued by about 20 points if we compare their projected improvement based on ADP and the average improvement for fifth year players that respected our criteria. We strongly believe that Benson will have an excellent season in 2009 and will surpass his average draft position. Even if he is on the Bengals, a starting running back who had 200 carries in the final 10 games of 2008 should not be the 32nd RB drafted. With the return of Carson Palmer, this team will move the ball on offense and will score touchdowns. People seem to forget that from 2004 to 2006, Rudi Johnson carried the ball 1,039 times and scored 36 touchdowns. As for Frank Gore, he has plenty of room to improve in terms of carries and touchdowns but Glen Coffee has been impressive and could steal some carries.

Of the ten running backs named in this article, at least seven or eight should reach 250 rushing yards which means that based on historical statistics, three or four should breakout. The average improvement for our breakout running backs is over 100 points so one or more of these running backs could bring you a fantasy championship, you just have to pick the right ones.