2009 Breakout Running Backs
(page 3)
Fourth year RBs:
For fourth year running
backs there is some improvement that could be made but unfortunately
no running back meets these criteria in 2009. By adding the two
criteria that a running back must have had less than 0.025 TD per
touches and more than 3.7 yards per carry in his previous season, I
was able to improve the percentage from 17.3% to 31.3%.
Fifth year RBs:
Even when running backs
reach their fifth year, it is still possible to find some who will
surprise us and have nice improvements over their previous year’s
statistics. Many fifth year running backs struggled in 2008 but
Michael Turner did have an exceptional season. In order to increase
the 26.3% success rate, I applied the following three additional
criteria:
-less than 0.03 TD / Touches
-less than 275 carries
Although five breakout fifth
year running backs did not respect these criteria, there are still
15 that did out of a total of 42 that respected these criteria which
is equal to 35.7%.
2008 is not a great year for
fifth year running backs as the only two candidates that meet these
criteria are Frank Gore and Cedric Benson. Both of these running
backs have a certain amount of room to improve either with
touchdowns or yards and will definitely be two running backs to keep
in mind but a lot will depend on how their team performs.
Conclusion:
It is unfortunately not
enough to know which players might breakout, and although amongst
the ten players I mentioned there are probably three or four that
will have very good seasons, there are other factors you will want
to consider. The most important of those factors is where you expect
these players to be drafted. Knowing that three or four of these
guys will breakout is a nice start but it is also important to know
which running backs the average manager expects to improve in order
to find value in the draft and avoid overpayments. It is also
important to analyze the situation for each of those ten running
backs individually in order to increase our chances of finding the
ones that will breakout. You will be able to find both of the above
within the next few weeks in other articles on this website.
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