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Myths and Realities of Aging and Wearing Running Backs - Summary

Draft Recommendation: Be extremely careful with running backs over 32 years old or who have over 3,000 career touches. The one with over 2,250 career touches require more studying but can be good picks.

Over the past few seasons there have been a number of articles written about aging and wearing running backs. We used to hear that the age where a running back would decline was 31 but more recently we have also heard 30 and sometimes even 28. Many are also suggesting that Clinton Portis will struggle this season because he has reached 2,000 carries in his career. I decided to test out all these theories to find out once and for all, when do running backs really decline?

The first step was to look at the chances of running backs suffering injuries or not seeing the ball as much as they get older. Based on our analysis we determined that running backs are slightly more at risk when they reach the age of 28 and become a huge risk when they reach the age of 33. As for a decrease in performance, the only significant drop comes at age 32, not 30 as many would lead you to believe.

We often hear that running backs start struggling after a certain number of touches in their career and are more at risk because they have more wear. Based on our data, running backs that have more career touches are as likely to continue receiving 200 touches in a season as those with less wear.

The most interesting data however is when we look at the performance for running backs based on their number of career touches. Here is a chart which shows the percentage change in fantasy points by number of career touches:

As expected, there is a very large drop when running backs reach 3,000 career touches (the exception was Curtis Martin) but there is also a drop when running backs reach 2,250 touches. The difference with running backs that had between 1,500 and 2,249 touches is about 10% which is quite interesting but we need to be able to understand why this drop happened.

When we look at more specific statistics, we notice that running backs with more career touches drop for two main reasons: fewer touchdowns and fewer receptions. This means that when you analyze a running back with more than 2,250 career touches, you need to ask yourself whether or not his team might be looking to take receptions or goal line carries away from him in the upcoming season.

Four running backs had over 200 touches last year and are now over 2,250 career touches:
Clinton Portis – 2,285, Jamal Lewis – 2,612, LaDainian Tomlinson – 3,167 and Warrick Dunn – 3,180.

You can possibly expect a small drop in yards per rush and yards per reception for Clinton Portis and Jamal Lewis but you need to judge for yourself if you believe they will see fewer receptions and goal line carries this season. Those two statistics are the only two that could explain a significant drop in performance. Jamal Lewis might be at risk with Jerome Harrison and James Davis but considering the Redskins did not draft any running backs this year, they probably plan to give Portis the ball just as much as last year.

As for LaDainian Tomlinson and Warrick Dunn, they have about a 50% chance of not even getting 200 touches this season and if they do, their fantasy points are expected to drop by about 15% on average. Dunn was released by the Buccaneers and might retire while Tomlinson needs to be considered a very risky pick, especially because of the way Darren Sproles played late last season and in the playoffs. 

In conclusion, the only two marks where running backs start declining drastically are 32 years old and 3,000 career touches. The risk is also slightly higher for running backs who are 28 years of age or older and those who have reached 2,250 career touches but it is not significant enough to stay away from them. Clinton Portis has been healthy his entire career except in 2006, has been consistent his entire career, he had a very good season in 2008 and his backup is older than he is so why should he be considered a risky pick? Simply because he’s now 28 years old and has over 2,250 career touches? Portis will slow down at some point and it could be this year or next year or three years from now but this season there are no signs of that happening and you should not rule him out simply because of his age or wear.

See the complete analysis