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Running backs can see a drop in fantasy points for a large number of reasons and knowing this can prevent you from making big mistakes in your draft. In this chart we compare specific statistics between the 1500-2249 and 2250-2999 groups:

The running backs with 2,250 to 2,999 carries actually see a drop in every one of those categories compared to their previous season. We notice a small difference between the two groups in yards per carry and yards per reception but the bigger difference is in terms of receptions and touchdowns. It makes sense since when running backs are nearing the end of their career, teams will look to save them so they will have less receptions and less goal line carries. Part of the reason for the -17.6% is that those backs averaged 11.5 TDs the year before. As we’ve mentioned time and time again TD numbers are inconsistent but despite that higher number, there was still a noticeable drop in TD per touches which can be explained by the fact that they have more wear. This means that when you analyze a running back with more than 2,250 career touches, you need to ask yourself whether or not his team might be looking to take receptions or goal line carries away from him in the upcoming season.

Four running backs had over 200 touches last year and are now over 2,250 career touches:
Clinton Portis – 2,285, Jamal Lewis – 2,612, LaDainian Tomlinson – 3,167 and Warrick Dunn – 3,180.

You can possibly expect a small drop in yards per rush and yards per reception for Clinton Portis and Jamal Lewis but you need to judge for yourself if you believe they will see fewer receptions and goal line carries this season. Those two statistics are the only two that could explain a significant drop in performance. Jamal Lewis might be at risk with Jerome Harrison and James Davis but considering the Redskins did not draft any running backs this year, they probably plan to give Portis the ball just as much as last year.

As for LaDainian Tomlinson and Warrick Dunn, they have about a 50% chance of not even getting 200 touches this season and if they do, their fantasy points are expected to drop by about 15% on average. Dunn was released by the Buccaneers and might retire while Tomlinson needs to be considered a very risky pick, especially because of the way Darren Sproles played late last season and in the playoffs. 

In conclusion, the only two marks where running backs start declining drastically are 32 years old and 3,000 career touches. The risk is also slightly higher for running backs who are 28 years of age or older and those who have reached 2,250 career touches but it is not significant enough to stay away from them. Clinton Portis has been healthy his entire career except in 2006, has been consistent his entire career, he had a very good season in 2008 and his backup is older than he is so why should he be considered a risky pick? Simply because he’s now 28 years old and has over 2,250 career touches? Portis will slow down at some point and it could be this year or next year or three years from now but this season there are no signs of that happening and you should not rule him out simply because of his age or wear.

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