Ultimate Fantasy Football Strategy - ADP Analysis

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(Updated September 2, 2010)
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ADP Analysis - Wide Receivers

Wide receivers are starting to get more and more respect on draft day and many owners are drafting them in the second round instead of drafting their second running back. In the past few years, many leagues have been shifting towards a more WR friendly scoring system that gives one point for every reception (PPR) and starting three WRs instead of two. Do those changes really make WRs more valuable or are defenses simply getting too good and are now able to stop any WR by focusing on him? I have once again added another column in the chart to see the difference between PPR and non-PPR leagues. For wide receivers, the minimums used were 70 points for non-PPR and 110 for PPR:

POS	ADP AVG	PTS AVG (Non-PPR)	PTS AVG (PPR)	POS	ADP AVG	PTS AVG (Non-PPR)	PTS AVG (PPR)
1	11	165	240	29	82	104	160
2	14	171	248	30	84	106	164
3	17	180	264	31	89	96	146
4	20	156	231	32	92	122	170
5	23	183	274	33	93	110	162
6	25	158	243	34	96	105	169
7	27	139	213	35	100	83	131
8	29	149	232	36	105	112	168
9	32	115	180	37	110	110	168
10	34	145	223	38	113	74	115
11	36	125	189	39	117	100	153
12	37	137	213	40	121	131	187
13	39	142	215	41	123	114	169
14	42	146	221	42	126	143	221
15	45	145	214	43	128	110	164
16	47	134	208	44	132	104	158
17	49	137	205	45	136	100	144
18	52	144	217	46	139	101	157
19	56	126	198	47	141	88	134
20	58	112	173	48	144	106	160
21	60	117	179	49	147	99	148
22	63	107	162	50	150	103	153
23	65	118	178	51	152	98	155
24	68	123	188	52	155	83	133
25	71	137	206	53	160	84	132
26	74	92	137	54	164	99	151
27	76	142	209	55	166	74	111
28	80	139	203	56	168	91	142

POS	ADP AVG	PTS AVG (Non-PPR)	PTS AVG (PPR)
1 to 4	15	168	246
5 to 8	26	157	241
9 to 12	34	130	201
13 to 16	43	142	214
17 to 20	53	130	198
21 to 24	64	116	177
25 to 28	75	127	189
29 to 32	87	107	160
33 to 36	99	102	158
37 to 40	115	104	156
41 to 44	127	118	178
45 to 48	140	99	149
49 to 52	151	96	147
53 to 56	164	87	134

The first thing that probably jumps out at you when you look at these charts is that there is quite a difference between the top eight WRs and the rest. There is also a noticeable drop after the top 28. The ideal strategy would be to draft one of the top eight WRs and after that it does not seem to matter too much where you draft your other ones as long as you take your starters in the first six or seven rounds in a 12-team league. Here is another chart comparing two groups of WRs to help prove my point:

POS	ADP AVG	PTS AVG	PPR PTS AVG
9 to 18	41	137	208
19 to 28	67	121	183

There is only a difference of 16 points in a Non-PPR and 25 points in a PPR league for WRs who were drafted on average more than two rounds apart. This means that by drafting a WR in the fourth round instead of the sixth round you can only expect on average 16 or 25 more points in a season. This shows that there is probably a better strategy than drafting your WRs in rounds three to five like many owners do. Let�s continue this analysis by looking at the tight ends.

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