Ultimate Fantasy Football Strategy - ADP Analysis

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Pay What You Want Advice - Start / Sit - Trade - Waivers

ADP Analysis - Running Backs

Running back is the position that is the most in demand on draft day and in most drafts there are usually at least ten RBs drafted in the first round of a 12-team league. There are so few good running backs, especially with the emerging running back by committee strategy that coaches seem to want to use more and more, that fantasy owners will generally jump on running backs in the first two rounds. Many managers are starting to draft a WR or QB in the late first round to move away from the running back trend. Is it justified to go RB-RB in the first two rounds of your draft no matter who is available? In this chart, I have also included the average points in a system where players earn one point per reception (PPR). For running backs, the minimums used were 80 points for non-PPR and 100 for PPR. Let’s take a look:

POS	ADP AVG	PTS AVG (Non-PPR)	PTS AVG (PPR)	POS	ADP AVG	PTS AVG (Non-PPR)	PTS AVG (PPR)
1	1	298	354	25	56	237	289
2	2	282	323	26	58	175	201
3	3	155	188	27	62	130	153
4	4	215	258	28	67	125	149
5	6	247	298	29	70	153	182
6	7	193	227	30	75	157	181
7	8	206	250	31	77	111	139
8	9	192	229	32	82	135	155
9	11	186	229	33	85	149	173
10	13	157	177	34	91	109	125
11	15	167	204	35	95	114	138
12	17	193	222	36	99	100	117
13	19	164	202	37	104	82	104
14	20	191	228	38	108	121	149
15	23	165	200	39	113	125	149
16	27	124	158	40	119	109	136
17	29	183	215	41	121	124	158
18	32	118	145	42	127	109	136
19	34	192	233	43	133	97	119
20	41	169	194	44	141	121	146
21	45	174	202	45	149	87	108
22	47	112	134	46	157	81	104
23	51	114	140	47	160	89	109
24	53	137	161	48	163	88	111

POS	ADP AVG	PTS AVG (Non-PPR)	PTS AVG (PPR)
1 to 4	3	237	281
5 to 8	8	210	251
9 to 12	14	176	208
13 to 16	22	161	197
17 to 20	34	165	197
21 to 24	49	134	159
25 to 28	61	167	198
29 to 32	76	139	164
33 to 36	92	118	138
37 to 40	111	110	134
41 to 44	130	113	139
45 to 48	157	86	108

There are three noticeable drops in the charts which are after #5, after #21 and after #30. Now you didn’t need me to tell you to draft a RB if you had a top five pick in the draft but if you needed a proof that it is a no-brainer well now you have it. Now there is however something very interesting to notice in these charts. The 6^th to 13^th running backs drafted have averaged only 18 more points than the 14^th to 21^st running backs to be drafted in a non-PPR system and 20 more points in a PPR system. That is a very small difference considering there is a difference of 19 in average draft position for the two groups.

This seems to indicate that there is not much point in drafting RBs in the late first round or early second round since they only earn a few more points than the ones drafted in the third round or fourth round. However, as mentioned previously, there is a noticeable drop after the 21^st RB so you definitely want to have two running backs on your team by the middle of the fourth round but these tables do seem to question the common RB-RB strategy. FantasyStrategies.com also offers an interesting strategy for drafting running backs.

The final drop is in the beginning of the seventh round for a 12-team league so by then you will definitely want to have three RBs on your team and possibly even four. It’s important to remember however that I am looking at average draft position so these are general trends to consider but nothing is set in stone. If you have a RB you love that falls to you in the late first or early second round he could be a very good choice but just be aware that he is no guarantee and you should consider your other options. Let’s take a look at the wide receivers next and see how they compare.

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Wide Receivers

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