Ultimate Fantasy Football Strategy - ADP Analysis

ADP Analysis - Quarterbacks

Quarterbacks are certainly very interesting to analyze. They typically are amongst the highest in fantasy scoring but there are quite a few good ones so certain managers prefer to wait before drafting their starter. However, one would assume that their statistics are easier to predict than players at other positions. The following chart is based on a scoring system with four points per TD pass and one point for every 20 yards passing. This chart may seem complicated at first but it’s simple to understand. The “ADP AVG” column stands for the five year average draft position of the QB drafted in the slot listed in the first column (all ADP values were obtained from myfantasyleague.com ). The column “PTS AVG” is the average fantasy points earned by the QBs drafted at the position listed in the first column:

POS	ADP AVG	PTS AVG
1	5	331
2	14	249
3	18	270
4	25	266
5	32	212
6	37	249
7	47	185
8	48	267
9	51	276
10	56	219
11	68	233
12	71	163
13	83	274
14	87	245
15	91	242
16	100	224
17	110	160
18	118	111
19	122	197
20	127	146
21	133	114
22	136	149
23	144	165
24	154	180

We want to look at tiers so I have put that table into groups of four to make it easier to notice a trend:

POS	ADP AVG	PTS AVG
1 to 4	16	288
5 to 8	39	231
9 to 12	59	227
13 to 16	88	247
17 to 20	116	163
21 to 24	141	147

By looking at those two charts there are a few possibilities that you can use in terms of strategy. The first possibility is to draft one of the top tier QBs who have earned on average 57 more points than the second tier. The other possibility is to wait until much later in the draft to select a QB. I think from the second chart you can notice that there is a big drop around #16 which is approximately the eight or ninth round in a 12-team league. There seems to be too much uncertainty amongst the QBs outside the top four to explain spending a pick in the first three or four rounds of a draft. As you can see, there are equally good QBs available in the middle rounds of your draft. To further explain my point, if we take the average of QBs ranked 5^th to 10^th and 11^th to 16^th, the 5^th to 10^th group average 235 points and the 11^th to 16^th group average 230 points even though they were drafted on average more than four rounds later. By looking at these charts there is therefore not much doubt that the two possible strategies are to draft a top tier QB or to draft a QB you like in the sixth or seventh round. However, before coming to any definite conclusions in terms of strategy for the QB position we have to compare these numbers with those at other positions.

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