ADP Analysis - Quarterbacks
Typically, quarterbacks are
amongst the highest in fantasy scoring but there are quite a few
good ones so certain managers prefer to wait before drafting their
starter. However, one would assume that their statistics are easier
to predict than players at other positions. The following chart is
based on a scoring system with one point for every 20 yards passing
and either four or six points per TD pass. This chart may seem
complicated at first but it’s simple to understand. The “ADP AVG”
column stands for the average draft position of the QB drafted in
the slot listed in the first column (all ADP values were obtained
from
myfantasyleague.com ). The column “PTS AVG” is the average
fantasy points earned by the QBs drafted at the position listed in
the first column. For example, last year Tom Brady was the first
quarterback selected in drafts in 2008 so his ADP and fantasy points
are included in the averaged for the first position. One slight
difference however is that we gave a minimum of 150 points (or 170
points for 6 pts per TD pass) to any player who did not reach those
numbers just to ensure that the averages would not be skewed.
|
POS |
ADP AVG |
PTS AVG (TD - 4) |
PTS AVG (TD - 6) |
|
1 |
7 |
303 |
358 |
|
2 |
13 |
302 |
354 |
|
3 |
18 |
309 |
368 |
|
4 |
25 |
245 |
285 |
|
5 |
32 |
227 |
263 |
|
6 |
36 |
217 |
248 |
|
7 |
44 |
255 |
298 |
|
8 |
48 |
246 |
285 |
|
9 |
51 |
251 |
289 |
|
10 |
55 |
267 |
310 |
|
11 |
63 |
237 |
277 |
|
12 |
68 |
235 |
270 |
|
13 |
78 |
215 |
246 |
|
14 |
85 |
302 |
355 |
|
15 |
92 |
224 |
257 |
|
16 |
96 |
243 |
282 |
|
17 |
104 |
221 |
255 |
|
18 |
111 |
202 |
232 |
|
19 |
117 |
206 |
237 |
|
20 |
123 |
219 |
255 |
|
21 |
129 |
169 |
194 |
|
22 |
135 |
216 |
248 |
|
23 |
145 |
166 |
190 |
|
24 |
149 |
227 |
263 |
We want to look at tiers so I put that table
into groups of four to make it easier to notice a trend:
|
POS |
ADP AVG |
PTS AVG (TD - 4) |
PTS AVG (TD - 6) |
|
1 to 4 |
15 |
290 |
341 |
|
5 to 8 |
40 |
236 |
274 |
|
9 to 12 |
59 |
248 |
286 |
|
13 to 16 |
88 |
246 |
285 |
|
17 to 20 |
113 |
212 |
245 |
|
21 to 24 |
139 |
195 |
224 |
By looking at those two
charts there are two possible strategies that stand out. The first
possibility is to draft one of the top tier QBs who have earned on
average 54 (or 67) more points than the second tier. The other
possibility is to wait until much later in the draft to select a QB.
From the second chart you can notice that there is a big drop around
#16 which is approximately the eight or ninth round in a 12-team
league. There seems to be too much uncertainty amongst the QBs
outside the top four to explain spending a pick in the first three
or four rounds of a draft. As you can see, there are equally good
QBs available in the middle rounds of your draft.
To further explain my point, if we take the average of QBs ranked 5th
to 10th and 11th to 16th, the 5th
to 10th group only averages one more point than the 11th
to 16th group even though they were drafted on
average more than four rounds later. Before coming to any definite
conclusions in terms of strategy for the QB position we have to
compare these numbers with those at other positions.
|
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