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ADP Analysis - Introduction The following is a series of articles based on a new
theory I have come up with. Last season Tom Brady was the most dominant fantasy player and
in most leagues had more points than anyone else (depending on the scoring system) which
makes many owners believe he was the most valuable to a fantasy team. Unfortunately for
those managers, there is little truth to that statement. One of the most important things
to know when you draft a fantasy football team is that the total number of points a player
earns is not important, the important thing is
how many points a player earns compared to others at his position. Let me give you a
very simplified example of this: Assume you are in a league with only two teams where both
managers only draft one QB and one RB. Say you predict QB1 to score 400 points, QB2 350,
RB1 300 and RB2 200. If you were selecting first you would draft RB1 since he earns 100
more points than the other RB, the other manager would then select QB1 and RB2 and you
would finally pick QB2. Now if your projections are correct you would win your league by
50 points because you chose the player who is better compared to the other at his position
instead of the one who scores the highest total number of points. This is a very
simplified example but the same principle applies with 12 managers selecting a full team.
In the early rounds you will want players that are better than the other starters at that
position. This is the reason that running backs are so valuable, there are so few of them
that are dominant that you cannot afford to wait to draft them. It may be a very basic principle but you would be
surprised to see how many managers do not understand it or do not apply it. However, I am
pushing this one step further. Many other websites explain what I just explained but there
is one problem with it. If you look at the number of points that team defenses earned in
your league last year you will likely notice that the Patriots and Chargers were quite
dominant. According to the principle I explained earlier you would draft one of those
relatively early in your draft. However, the problem with defenses is that it is very hard
to predict which ones will be good in the upcoming season and that is why you want to wait
later in your draft to draft them. If that principle applies for defenses, should it not
also apply to other positions? In the following articles, I will look at average draft
position (ADP) and fantasy points scored in the past five seasons for players at each
position. These articles will not only explain which players earn more points than others
at their position but also which position is easier to predict before the season starts.
These articles will tell you which position you should wait to draft and will give you a
very big strategic advantage over your opponents. |
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