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ADP Analysis - Introduction

Last season Drew Brees was the highest scoring player in fantasy football which leads many people to believe that he was the most valuable player in fantasy football. Unfortunately for those managers, there is little truth to that. One of the most important things to know when you draft a fantasy football team is that the total number of points a player earns is not important; the important thing is how many points a player earns compared to others at his position. Let me give you a very simplified example of this:

Assume you are in a league with only two teams where both managers only draft one QB and one RB. Say you predict QB1 to score 400 points, QB2 - 350, RB1 - 300 and RB2 - 200. If you were selecting first you would draft RB1 since he earns 100 more points than the other RB, the other manager would then select QB1 and RB2 and you would finally pick QB2. Now if your projections are correct you would win your league by 50 points because you chose the player who is better compared to the other at his position instead of the one who scores the highest total number of points. This is a very simplified example but the same principle applies with 12 managers selecting a complete team. In the early rounds you will want players that are better than the other starters at that position. This is the reason that running backs are so valuable, there are so few of them that are dominant that you cannot afford to wait too long before drafting them.

It may be a very basic principle but you would be surprised to see how many fantasy football players do not understand it or do not apply it. However, there is another important part to this. A few websites (including Football Guys in their very famous Value Based Drafting) explain what I just explained but there is one problem with it. Many predict the Steelers to be the best defense this year and in many leagues defenses will score a lot of fantasy points. According to value based drafting you would select them relatively early in your draft if its scoring system is defense-friendly. However, the problem with defenses is that they are very inconsistent from year to year so many will wait until the later rounds to select them no matter the scoring system. If that principle applies for defenses, should it not also apply to other positions?

In the following article, I will look at average draft position (ADP) and fantasy points scored since 2003 for players at each position. This article will not only explain which players earn more points than others at their position but also which position is easier to predict before the season starts. This article will tell you in which rounds there is value at each position and will give you a large strategic advantage over your opponents.