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2010 Ultimate Draft Tool
(Updated September 2, 2010)
 It combines our player projections and strategy articles all into one easy to use Excel program.
Now allows you to edit our player projections to your liking and also works for keeper leagues.

 

Pay What You Want Advice will be available throughout the season!
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2009 Preseason Statistics Analysis

A few weeks ago we published an article on preseason statistics and determined that certain statistics were worth keeping an eye on during the preseason. I determined a series of formulas that predicted team statistics which were 12% better than simply using last season’s statistics. Now that the pre-season is over, I will now look at the 2009 preseason statistics and apply my formulas to them.

The following table shows the number of fantasy points by team for quarterbacks and running backs based on our formulas using only last year’s statistics and using both last year’s statistics and this year’s preseason statistics. The last two columns show the predicted increase or decrease for each team; in other words it shows how this year’s preseason statistics could impact this year’s statistics:

Team 08 Pass 08 Rush 09 Pass 09 Rush Pass Rush
Arizona 293 245 302 226 3.0% -7.8%
Atlanta 253 300 245 298 -3.1% -0.6%
Baltimore 240 294 251 280 4.7% -4.9%
Buffalo 238 263 231 253 -2.9% -4.1%
Carolina 253 308 243 306 -3.8% -0.8%
Chicago 247 260 255 261 3.1% 0.4%
Cincinnati 215 232 216 254 0.4% 9.7%
Cleveland 214 234 206 233 -3.9% -0.2%
Dallas 272 261 276 262 1.7% 0.4%
Denver 281 268 273 265 -2.9% -1.2%
Detroit 239 234 239 249 0.2% 6.3%
Green Bay 270 263 273 281 1.0% 7.0%
Houston 272 268 272 261 0.1% -2.4%
Indianapolis 276 245 271 226 -1.9% -7.7%
Jacksonville 247 263 251 238 1.8% -9.4%
Kansas City 249 253 238 238 -4.7% -6.0%
Miami 260 273 247 272 -4.8% -0.2%
Minnesota 247 285 246 297 -0.5% 4.2%
New England 263 292 263 292 -0.1% -0.1%
New Orleans 307 275 314 297 2.4% 8.0%
New York (A) 259 280 271 301 5.0% 7.5%
New York (N) 257 297 265 292 3.2% -1.7%
Oakland 217 255 232 263 6.9% 2.9%
Philadelphia 269 263 283 255 5.2% -3.0%
Pittsburgh 251 263 232 269 -7.4% 2.3%
San Diego 281 267 290 270 3.3% 0.9%
San Francisco 251 247 239 258 -4.7% 4.4%
Seattle 231 251 242 254 4.7% 0.9%
St. Louis 227 240 216 239 -4.9% -0.4%
Tampa Bay 254 261 249 261 -2.1% -0.1%
Tennessee 238 290 241 286 1.2% -1.5%
Washington 235 266 232 261 -1.4% -1.8%

As you can read in the other article, the numbers predicted in the 09 column will be more accurate than the one in the 08 column about 60% of the time but the other will still be more accurate 40% of the time. That means this is something interesting to look at but you cannot look at it blindly. Note that we already really liked Cedric Benson and to see a +9.7% for the Bengals rushing attack is great news.