Ultimate Fantasy Football Strategy - 2008 Preseason Statistics Analysis

2008 Preseason Statistics Analysis

A few weeks ago we published an article on preseason statistics and determined that certain statistics were worth keeping an eye on during the preseason. I determined a series of formulas that predicted team statistics which were 12% better than simply using last season’s statistics. Now that all teams have played at least three preseason games, I will now look at the 2008 preseason statistics and apply my formulas to them.

The following table shows the number of fantasy points by team for quarterbacks and running backs based on our formulas using only last year’s statistics and using both last year’s statistics and this year’s preseason statistics. The last two columns show the predicted increase or decrease for each team; in other words it shows how this year’s preseason statistics could impact this year’s statistics:

Team	07 Pass	07 Rush	08 Pass	08 Rush	Pass	Rush
Arizona	283	245	277	257	-2.2%	4.9%
Atlanta	242	230	237	237	-2.0%	2.8%
Baltimore	231	247	222	234	-4.1%	-5.3%
Buffalo	218	240	210	242	-3.5%	0.7%
Carolina	231	243	228	263	-1.6%	7.9%
Chicago	244	227	249	227	1.8%	-0.1%
Cincinnati	273	246	262	236	-4.0%	-4.0%
Cleveland	275	267	283	253	2.9%	-5.2%
Dallas	296	270	299	267	0.9%	-1.0%
Denver	256	257	259	260	0.9%	1.2%
Detroit	262	234	269	245	2.7%	4.4%
Green Bay	289	256	285	253	-1.7%	-1.2%
Houston	267	250	271	262	1.8%	5.0%
Indianapolis	293	275	299	253	2.2%	-8.0%
Jacksonville	271	294	272	283	0.3%	-3.7%
Kansas City	237	218	234	217	-1.6%	-0.8%
Miami	232	243	217	247	-6.4%	1.8%
Minnesota	234	296	237	282	1.2%	-4.7%
New England	334	293	319	286	-4.5%	-2.6%
New Orleans	286	252	301	254	5.3%	0.8%
New York (A)	230	234	242	219	5.1%	-6.6%
New York (N)	255	275	249	278	-2.4%	1.0%
Oakland	229	262	211	270	-8.1%	3.2%
Philadelphia	266	264	272	252	1.9%	-4.5%
Pittsburgh	267	274	258	271	-3.3%	-1.0%
San Diego	254	279	238	294	-6.1%	5.5%
San Francisco	216	228	225	238	3.9%	4.5%
Seattle	278	251	284	272	2.2%	8.2%
St. Louis	241	228	237	236	-1.5%	3.4%
Tampa Bay	251	262	253	262	0.6%	0.1%
Tennessee	227	270	221	283	-2.5%	4.6%
Washington	253	264	251	265	-0.8%	0.4%

As you can read in the other article, the numbers predicted in the 08 column will be more accurate than the one in the 07 column about 60% of the time but the other will still be more accurate 40% of the time. That means this is something interesting to look at but you cannot look at it blindly. Indianapolis has the biggest decrease in rushing offense because in the preseason they only ran the ball 34% of the time as opposed to 45% but their yards per carry was still 4.2 as opposed to 3.8 last year. In my opinion, this is nothing worth worrying about because Manning has not played at all and there is no reason that the Colts would change their system this season. It is however very interesting to note that the Carolina Panthers who are installing a power running attack are doing very well in the preseason and that the Seattle Seahawks are much improved in the running game as well with their improved offensive line. One disappointment is that the New York Jets are only averaging 2.7 yards per carry in the preseason with their brand new offensive line so let’s hope they can start building chemistry pretty soon. I would still advise you to use caution until the final preseason games take place on Thursday and Friday at which point we will publish updated charts. Our rankings will be adjusted slightly based on these but you will see more important changes after the final preseason games.