Newsletter

Offensive Line

2008 Receiving

#

Name

Team

Pos

Age

Exp

Pass Blocking

Rec

Yds

Avg

TD

FPTS

Reward

Risk

Tier 1

1

Randy Moss

NEP

WR

31

11

Same

90

1300

14.4

13

208

Medium

Low

Average decrease is 23% for WRs who had a season of over 350 pts in a PPR. Moss is still the number one receiver but don't expect another season like last year; he slowed down a little later in the year.

2

Reggie Wayne

IND

WR

30

8

Same

95

1400

14.7

10

200

Medium

Low

The average decrease is 6% for the 9 WRs who have been good for 4 straight seasons, improved by at least 5% in the year before and were between 28 and 32 yrs old. Injury to Harrison increased stats.

Tier 2

3

Marques Colston

NOS

WR

25

3

Slightly Worse

100

1300

13.0

10

190

Medium

Low

Randy Moss is the only player who had comparable numbers in his first two seasons and he was as good in his 3rd year. He is the #1 target on an excellent offense, no reason why he can't be as good as last year.

4

Terrell Owens

DAL

WR

35

13

Same

85

1300

15.3

13

208

Medium

High

6 WRs were very good at the age of 34, Harrison and Rice missed most of the season at 35; the other 4 decreased by an average of 8%. By far the best WR on an excellent offense but has been injured in past.

5

Andre Johnson

HOU

WR

27

6

Same

95

1250

13.2

10

185

High

Medium

Was 2nd in pts per 16 games for WRs (343 in a PPR). In 4 games with Schaub as QB, Johnson had 23 catches for 419 yards and 4 TDs. Pts per 16 games of similar WRs usually decrease by about 15-20%.

6

Larry Fitzgerald

ARI

WR

25

5

Same

95

1350

14.2

9

189

Medium

Medium

Average decrease is 12% for the 23 WRs 27 yrs old or under who improved by 15% to 45% (30% for Fitzgerald) and had over 250 fantasy pts in a PPR. 15 of the 60 passes completed by Leinart were to Fitz.

7

Braylon Edwards

CLE

WR

25

4

Same

75

1150

15.3

12

187

Medium

Medium

Only 3 of the 21 WRs who improved by more than 40% at 27 yrs old or under and had over 250 fantasy pts in a PPR continued to improve in the next season. Average decrease is 16%; Browns added Stallworth.

8

T.J. Houshmandzadeh

CIN

WR

31

8

Same

105

1250

11.9

10

185

Medium

Medium

The 13 WRs who have been consistently good for 2 straight seasons between the ages of 26 and 33 stayed at the same level on average. Chad Johnson is a question mark but it could only help Housh if he leaves.

9

Torry Holt

STL

WR

32

10

Better

90

1200

13.3

8

168

High

Low

Offensive line should be better this season for the Rams, his TD number is the only one that dropped last season, has missed 2 games in 9 seasons. Has the ability to get 300+pts; see Steve Smith...

Tier 3

10

Chad Johnson

CIN

WR

30

8

Same

85

1325

15.6

7

175

Medium

Medium

No one has been as consistent as Johnson over the last 5 seasons; between 87 and 97 Recs and between 7 and 10 TDs. Shoulder injury is becoming less of a concern, Johnson says he can play through it and at this point we have to believe him.

11

Steve Smith

CAR

WR

29

8

Worse

85

1150

13.5

8

163

High

Medium

Average improvement is 18% for the 14 WRs whose performance decreased by at least 5% for 2 straight seasons but had a season of at least 250 pts in the past 2 yrs. Suspended for first 2 games.

Tier 4

12

Plaxico Burress

NYG

WR

31

9

Same

75

1100

14.7

10

170

Low

Medium

Average decrease is only 2% for the 28 WRs who have been consistently good for 3 straight seasons and are under 33 yrs old. Steve Smith may draw more coverage away in his 2nd season.

13

Jerricho Cotchery

NYJ

WR

26

5

Better

90

1175

13.1

6

154

Medium

Low

13 WRs were consistently good in their 3rd and 4th NFL seasons; 4 of them improved by more than 20% in their 5th season. Cotchery could be one of those with an improved line and more consistent QB play.

14

Wes Welker

NEP

WR

27

5

Same

100

1100

11.0

8

158

Low

Low

2 of the 8 WRs who improved by at least 20% and had over 225 pts in a PPR system after moving to a new team continued to improve. Average decrease is 8%; will continue to have lots of receptions.

15

Anquan Boldin

ARI

WR

28

6

Same

95

1250

13.2

7

167

Medium

High

The average decrease is about 7% for similar up and down WRs; 15 of the 60 passes completed by Leinart were to Boldin; he has missed 12 games in the past 4 seasons. He is unhappy and could be traded.

Tier 5

16

Brandon Marshall

DEN

WR

24

3

Slightly Better

90

1200

13.3

7

162

Medium

High

The average decrease is 11% for the 9 WRs who had over 250 pts in a PPR in their 2nd or 3rd season after having less than 150 the year before. Has his supsnesion reduced to only one game.

17

Greg Jennings

GBP

WR

25

3

Same

65

1050

16.2

8

153

Medium

Medium

See Santonio Holmes... Add to that a new young quarterback whose favorite target may not be Jennings. Jennings also relied heavily on TDs last season which makes him a high risk player.

18

Santonio Holmes

PIT

WR

24

3

Same

65

1125

17.3

6

149

Medium

Medium

17 WRs had between 200 and 280 pts in their 2nd year and improved by at least 20% over their rookie year's point per 16 games numbers. Their average decrease in their 3rd year is 10%, only 6 improved.

19

Lee Evans

BUF

WR

27

5

Same

65

1000

15.4

7

142

High

Medium

17 WRs in their 3rd to 5th year had between 130 and 200 fantasy pts and decreased by at least 25%. In the next year, their average increase was 13%. Improved Edwards and addition of Hardy will help.

20

Calvin Johnson

DET

WR

23

2

Same

70

1050

15.0

6

141

High

Medium

Average improvement is 19% for the 41 WRs who had between 130 and 185 fantasy pts per 16 games in a PPR in their rookie year; 11 of 41 improved by more than 50%; played through back injuries last year.

21

Laveranues Coles

NYJ

WR

31

9

Better

85

1050

12.4

7

147

Medium

Medium

Tough WR who can play through injuries and missed action last year for the first time since 2000. Improved line and more consistent QB play could lead to a bounce back year.

22

Roy Williams

DET

WR

27

5

Same

75

1150

15.3

5

145

High

High

Based on historical data from 17 WRs who had similar statistics, there's about a 40% chance that he improves by 10-20% and a 60% chance that he drops by 20-30%.

23

Dwayne Bowe

KCC

WR

24

2

Slightly Better

65

925

14.2

7

135

High

Medium

18 rookie WRs had between 170 and 230 pts (200 for Bowe), they decreased by an average of 3% in their 2nd year. 6 improved by 10+%, 6 decreased by 10+%. 20% of Croyle's completions were to Bowe.

24

Roddy White

ATL

WR

27

4

Better

75

1150

15.3

4

139

Medium

Medium

16 WRs went from under 150 pts in their first two seasons to between 200 and 280 in their 3rd. Their average decrease was 18% in their 4th season, only one improved. Line is improved but new QB.

25

Hines Ward

PIT

WR

32

11

Same

85

1000

11.8

6

136

Medium

Medium

See Burress... Ward played through an injury last season and should now be fully healed. He is a safe pick but has not played all 16 games in any of the last 3 seasons which explains his medium risk.

26

Nate Burleson

SEA

WR

27

6

Same

65

850

13.1

8

133

Medium

Medium

Hackett is gone and Branch and Engram are injured which means Burleson will be number one for at least the first three weeks of the season

27

Marvin Harrison

IND

WR

36

13

Same

70

850

12.1

8

133

High

High

Very few WRs performed well at the age of 36 or higher and it will be even more difficult for Harrison coming back from an injury.

Tier 6

28

Reggie Brown

PHI

WR

27

4

Slightly Better

70

975

13.9

6

134

Low

Medium

Brown will be the #1 WR in Philly for the first six weeks of the year with the injury to Curtis. In 13 games as #1 in 2005 and 2006: 53 rec for 846 yards and 7 TDs. Might miss first game with hamstring injury.

29

Donald Driver

GBP

WR

33

10

Same

70

950

13.6

4

119

High

Medium

Has been consistent over the past few years but his TD numbers dropped last season. Rodgers at QB may form more chemistry with the younger WRs but he was a top 15 WR for 3 straight years.

30

Donte Stallworth

CLE

WR

28

7

Same

55

850

15.5

5

115

Medium

Low

Moving to his 4th team in 4 years and has been pretty good with all of them. Is the #2 WR behind Edwards but TE Winslow also gets a lot of receptions. Jurevicius may not play.

31

Chris Chambers

SDC

WR

30

8

Same

60

825

13.8

6

119

Medium

Medium

His stats were not much better with San Diego but he definitely has more room to improve than with Miami. Should improve with a full off-season to work with the team.

32

Sidney Rice

MIN

WR

22

2

Same

55

800

14.5

6

116

Medium

Medium

The 32 rookie WRs who had between 100 and 130 pts in their rookie year improved by an average of 30% in their 2nd year; 13 improved by more than 40%. Addition of Berrian could help a little.

33

Ronald Curry

OAK

WR

29

6

Same

60

725

12.1

6

109

Medium

Low

Oakland offense is still a mess, Walker might retire, should be #1 in Oakland this year. He's a safe option now that Carter is out for the year and Walker is still a huge question mark.

34

Santana Moss

WAS

WR

29

8

Slightly Worse

60

900

15.0

5

120

Medium

High

Moss has not done anything impressive since his 1st season with the Redskins in 2005. Devin Thomas and Malcolm Kelly will not help Moss even though he should remain the #1 WR.

Tier 7

35

Laurent Robinson

ATL

WR

23

2

Better

60

800

13.3

4

104

High

Medium

Average increase is 54% for the 36 WRs who had between 70 and 110 fantasy pts in their rookie year. Someone will have to get more receptions with Crumpler gone and Horn requesting a trade.

36

Joey Galloway

TBB

WR

37

14

Slightly Better

60

950

15.8

4

119

Low

High

Jerry Rice is the only WR who had over 200 pts at 37 years old or higher. Gruden is angry that Galloway's groins injury his keepinh him from practicing.

37

Jerry Porter

JAC

WR

30

9

Slightly Better

55

775

14.1

5

108

High

High

Porter is the best WR Jacksonville has had since Jimmy Smith and he will get his opportunity but will have to perform because there is a lot of competition. It now looks like he'll be ready for week 1,

38

Ted Ginn Jr.

MIA

WR

23

2

Same

55

750

13.6

4

99

Medium

Low

Average increase is 54% for the 36 WRs who had between 70 and 110 fantasy pts in their rookie year. Will be #1 with Booker and Chambers gone. 26 receptions in last 7 games in 2007.

39

Bernard Berrian

MIN

WR

28

5

Same

60

800

13.3

4

104

Medium

Medium

Moving from clear #1 WR on a bad passing team to #1 or #2. Jackson has the ability to throw the ball deep but will compete for receptions with Rice and Wade. His toe injury from last season is still bothering him.

40

Bobby Engram

SEA

WR

35

13

Same

60

750

12.5

4

99

High

Medium

Had career high numbers in receptions, yards and TDs at 34 years old. Similar players who surprised at that age decrease by 25% on average. Engram is will likely miss at least the first three games of the season.

41

Isaac Bruce

SFO

WR

36

15

Better

55

750

13.6

5

105

High

High

In 8 years, top 3 WRs with Martz always had over 190 receptions; Davis will steal some of those. Bruce should be #1 WR but at 36 years old we're not sure what to expect

42

Patrick Crayton

DAL

WR

29

5

Same

50

700

14.0

5

100

Medium

Medium

Crayton failed to breakout last season even after becoming the number two receiver in a solid offense. Crayton won't have 7 TDs again this year and his role won't be bigger than last year unless Owens is injured.

43

Mark Clayton

BAL

WR

26

4

Slightly Better

55

700

12.7

4

94

Medium

Low

8 of Troy Smith's 40 completions were to Clayton, WRs who had 4 to 6 TDs in a season and 0 or 1 in the next averaged 4.4 in the next season.

44

Derrick Mason

BAL

WR

34

12

Slightly Better

65

750

11.5

4

99

Medium

Medium

9 WRs improved by at least 20% and had over 200 fantasy points at 30 yrs of age or more after decreasing by at least 15% in the previous season. Their average decrease was 30% in the next season.

45

Drew Bennett

STL

WR

30

8

Better

55

700

12.7

4

94

High

Medium

Now the #2 WR with St. Louis and we saw how dangerous he can be in that role in Tennessee.

46

Vincent Jackson

SDC

WR

25

4

Same

45

700

15.6

4

94

High

Medium

Average improvement is 5% for the 18 WRs who were average and didn't show much improvement in their 3rd season. Jackson struggled after the arrival of Chambers but did play very well in the playoffs.

Tier 8

47

Reggie Williams

JAC

WR

25

5

Slightly Better

45

600

13.3

6

96

Medium

Medium

Should be #2 WR but Northcutt and Williamson are not very far behind. The 19 WRs who had between 8 and 12 TDs in years 2 to 7 and less than 200 fantasy pts averaged 40% less TDs in the next season.

48

Darrell Jackson

DEN

WR

30

9

Slightly Better

45

650

14.4

4

89

High

Medium

Struggled with the horrible passing game in SF but had 6 straight seasons of over 200 fantasy pts per 16 games before. Jackson should be #2 WR but Royal is looking better and better.

49

James Jones

GBP

WR

24

2

Same

50

750

15.0

3

93

High

High

Average increase is 25% for the 37 WRs who had between 110 and 145 fantasy pts in their rookie year. All GB receivers are pretty high risk because Rodgers is the new QB and he will choose his favorite targets.

50

Kevin Walter

HOU

WR

27

6

Same

55

700

12.7

4

94

Low

Medium

Had 22 receptions for 255 yards and 3 TDs in weeks 11 to 16 when Johnson was healthy. Average decrease is 11% for the 21 WRs who came out of nowhere in years 4 to 6 to have 150 to 200 fantasy pts.

51

Anthony Gonzalez

IND

WR

24

2

Same

45

650

14.4

3

83

High

Medium

Historically, similar rookies improve by about 25% in their 2nd season. Stokley managed to put up solid numbers as Colts #3 WR but Gonzalez could be even better if Harrison is not fully healthy.

52

Muhsin Muhammad

CAR

WR

35

13

Worse

45

650

14.4

3

83

High

Medium

Is appaently looking very good but him and Hackett will battle for the #2 spot. Both will get their chance with Smith's suspension in the first two weeks of the season.

53

Justin Gage

TEN

WR

27

6

Same

55

750

13.6

3

93

Medium

High

It now looks like that McCareins and Gage will be the 2 starters and will get most of the playing time but there is still a lot of competition and Crumpler will get a lot of receptions as well.

54

Jabar Gaffney

NEP

WR

28

7

Same

45

575

12.8

4

82

Medium

Low

With Stallworth gone and Moss and Welker already getting over 50% of the receptions, either Gaffney or Jackson will get a lot more.

55

Robert Meachem

NOS

WR

24

2

Slightly Worse

40

575

14.4

4

82

High

Medium

Missed the whole year in 2007 and is a big question mark but many think he will become the #2 WR halfway through the season.

56

Amani Toomer

NYG

WR

34

13

Same

55

650

11.8

3

83

Low

Low

Every year he is supposed to lose his number 2 WR spot to younger guys but always has about 60 receptions.

57

Bryant Johnson

SFO

WR

27

6

Better

50

650

13.0

4

89

Medium

High

In 8 years, top 3 WRs with Martz always had over 190 receptions; Davis will steal some of those. Johnson may be losing starting job to Morgan because of his injury but we still think Johnson is much more talented

58

Marty Booker

CHI

WR

32

10

Slightly Better

55

700

12.7

3

88

Medium

High

Booker is the only Chicago WR with good experience and he should be the #1 in our opinion but it's an open battle in camp. #1 WR in Chicago had at least 60 REC and 4 TD in the past 3 seasons.

59

Kevin Curtis

PHI

WR

30

6

Slightly Better

45

600

13.3

3

78

High

Medium

Curtis will have sports hernia surgery and isn, expected to return before week 8 which means he would miss the first six games of the season.

60

Derek Hagan

MIA

WR

24

3

Same

45

575

12.8

3

76

High

Medium

Hagan has had a great camp and has moved ahead of Wilford on the depth chart. Could be a surprise breakout WR in his 3rd season.

61

Matt Jones

JAC

WR

25

4

Slightly Better

40

500