Newsletter

Offensive Line

2008 Rushing

2008 Receiving

#

Name

Team

Pos

Age

Exp

Run Blocking

Att

Yds

Avg

TD

Rec

Yds

Avg

TD

FPTS

Reward

Risk

Tier 1

1

LaDainian Tomlinson

SDC

RB

29

8

Same

320

1500

4.7

14

55

450

8.2

2

346

Medium

Low

Tomlinson has been a top 3 RB for 6 straight years but he is 29 years old; still a very safe pick and the obvious #1 though.

Tier 2

2

Brian Westbrook

PHI

RB

29

7

Same

270

1250

4.6

7

80

700

8.8

4

341

Medium

High

See Tomlinson... Westbrook gets a high number of receptions year after year so is very valuable in a PPR league but has never played 16 games in a season. Coaching staff wants to lighten his workload, Booker will get some carries.

3

Joseph Addai

IND

RB

25

3

Better

290

1300

4.5

12

50

400

8.0

2

304

Medium

Medium

Averaged 4.9 YPC and had 5 TDs last season in first 5 games before Ugoh and Diem went down but lost Jake Scott in the off-season; the injury to Saturday is a concern but Addai has a lot of room to increase his number of carries.

Tier 3

4

Clinton Portis

WAS

RB

27

7

Better

320

1350

4.2

10

45

350

7.8

1

281

Medium

Low

There are 17 RBs who are 28 years old or under that were consistently good for three straight NFL seasons which Portis would have done had he not missed 8 games in 2006. 13 of them increased or decreased by less than 10% in the next season.

5

Adrian Peterson

MIN

RB

23

2

Worse

280

1350

4.8

13

30

300

10.0

1

279

High

Medium

Dominating rookies improve PPG by about 9%, 59% remain very good, 24% dominate even more. Players in first 5 yrs with YPC between 5.2 and 6.0 and at least 200 carries decrease YPC by 18% in next season. Loss of Richardson will hurt.

6

Ryan Grant

GBP

RB

26

4

Better

275

1325

4.8

9

45

300

6.7

1

268

High

Medium

There are 15 RBs who came out of nowhere in their 2nd, 3rd or 4th season, 8 of them continued to improve. Grant had 166 pts (in a PPR) from weeks 8 to 16, projects to 295 over 16 weeks. Rodgers effect is unknown but probably slightly negative.

7

Reggie Bush

NOS

RB

23

3

Slightly Better

180

725

4.0

5

85

650

7.6

2

265

High

Medium

Of the 12 RBs who had over 200 fantasy pts in each of their first 2 seasons and whose fantasy pts increased by any % or decreased by less than 10% in their 2nd season, 10 increased or decreased by more than 10% in their 3rd season.

8

Steven Jackson

STL

RB

25

5

Slightly Better

320

1225

3.8

7

60

475

7.9

2

284

Medium

High

Only 3 of the 10 RBs 27 yrs old or younger who had a dominant season followed by a disappointing one managed to improve in the next season and none returned to the level they were at previously. New contract but still overrated.

9

Marion Barber

DAL

RB

25

4

Same

280

1300

4.6

12

30

250

8.3

2

269

Medium

Medium

Of the 13 RBs entering their 4th or 5th season that showed good improvement in their previous season, only 3 showed very nice improvement but only 3 had their performance drop by more than 10%.

10

Maurice Jones-Drew

JAC

RB

23

3

Slightly Better

230

1100

4.8

9

45

400

8.9

1

255

Medium

Low

There are few RBs who had similar statistics as MJD in their first two seasons but historically RBs have their number of carries drop by about 20% when they reach the age of 32 (Fred Taylor).

11

Willis McGahee

BAL

RB

27

5

Slightly Better

275

1100

4.0

9

55

350

6.4

1

260

Medium

Medium

See Breakout RBs Article. He will continue to get all the goal line touches. On top of that, Cam Cameron gives his RBs the ball a lot in the red zone and throws to them a lot. Knee injury makes Rice a must handcuff.

Tier 4

12

Larry Johnson

KCC

RB

29

6

Slightly Better

340

1300

3.8

8

45

350

7.8

1

264

Medium

High

There are few RBs with statistics similar to LJ and although his offensive line did improve it is still one of the worst in the NFL. The good thing however is that he will continue to get a lot of touches.

13

Jamal Lewis

CLE

RB

29

9

Same

315

1300

4.1

8

35

250

7.1

1

244

Low

Low

Lewis will be 29 and you can't expect him to improve much over last year but the line is still as good and no one can steal many carries away from him in Cleveland. Lewis averaged 23 carries a game in the 2nd half of the season.

14

Earnest Graham

TBB

RB

28

5

Same

260

1050

4.0

7

50

350

7.0

2

244

High

High

Averaged 22 carries and 4 receptions per game in 6 starts from weeks 9 to 15. Avg improvement is 4% for RBs who became starters in years 3 to 5 and had over 200 pts. Slight downgrade after injury to RG Joseph.

15

Frank Gore

SFO

RB

25

4

Slightly Worse

270

1000

3.7

6

60

500

8.3

1

252

Medium

High

See Jackson... The difference for Gore is that his offensive line is worse than last year in run blocking but it is better in pass protection. Injuries to the line are a concern.

Tier 5

16

Marshawn Lynch

BUF

RB

22

2

Same

300

1200

4.0

9

30

250

8.3

1

235

Medium

Medium

There are 10 rookies who had between 200 and 275 fantasy pts per game in a PPR in their rookie year and had over 250 carries in their 2nd season. The average improvement for those was 10%. Jackson will be more involved in the offense this year.

17

Selvin Young

DEN

RB

25

2

Slightly Better

270

1250

4.6

4

40

275

6.9

1

223

High

Medium

No Denver RB has had more than 250 carries since Droughns in 2004 but we think this will change. Selvin's job is secure now with the injury to Torain but it looks like Hall might be getting the goalline carries.

18

Edgerrin James

ARI

RB

30

10

Slightly Better

290

1150

4.0

9

30

200

6.7

0

219

Medium

Low

A few RBs managed to surprise and have exceptional seasons at 30 yrs or older like Charlie Garner in 2002 and Curtis Martin in 2004. The average 30 yrs old RB who has over 200 carries will drop by about 6% but the Arizona offense is on the way up.

19

Thomas Jones

NYJ

RB

30

9

Better

300

1200

4.0

8

30

225

7.5

0

221

High

Medium

The Jets have the most improved line in terms of run blocking for 2008. Jones has a lot of room to improve his YPC and touchdowns and is one of our favorite guys this year but make sure you handcuff him with Leon Washington.

20

Brandon Jacobs

NYG

RB

26

4

Same

250

1175

4.7

10

25

200

8.0

1

229

High

High

Jacobs had an excellent YPC average but he will be splitting carries and he struggles to stay healthy. The good news though is late in the year and in the playoffs he was finally getting the goal line carries but make sure you also draft Bradshaw.

21

Darren McFadden

OAK

RB

21

1

Slightly Better

210

950

4.5

7

35

300

8.6

1

208

High

Medium

18 RBs were taken in the top 10 picks of the NFL Draft and had over 150 carries in their rookie year. Those 18 averaged 244 fantasy pts in a PPR in their rookie season and the 11 taken in the top 5 averaged 277 pts. Fargas and Bush will steal carries.

Tier 6

22

Laurence Maroney

NEP

RB

23

3

Same

260

1050

4.0

9

25

225

9.0

0

207

High

High

SMaroney is part of the best offense in the NFL and averaged 20 carries and 1.2 TDs per game in the last 3 regular season games and 3 playoff games. However, Patriots also have Jordan, Morris and Faulk at RB and RG Neal is injured.

23

Chris Perry

CIN

RB

29

7

Slightly Better

250

975

3.9

7

30

200

6.7

1

196

High

High

Will be the starter in Cincinnati with Kenny Watson also stealing some carries.

24

Michael Turner

ATL

RB

26

5

Same

275

1150

4.2

7

15

100

6.7

0

182

High

Medium

The Falcons will run the ball more than last season but the line will be at best the same as it was last year in run blocking, they will be running a RBBC once again and Turner is not a big receiving threat.

25

Willie Parker

PIT

RB

28

5

Slightly Worse

270

1000

3.7

6

30

225

7.5

1

195

Low

Medium

12 RBs had a very good season followed by a decrease in pts of 20% to 50% (36% for Parker) at 27 yrs or under. In the next season, only 3 improved by more than 10%. Add a worse o-line and Mendenhall and it's not looking good for Parker.

26

Kevin Smith

DET

RB

22

1

Slightly Better

225

900

4.0

7

30

200

6.7

1

188

High

High

Detroit has a better run blocking offensive line than most people think, Cherilus is a very good run blocker and new zone blocking scheme should also be good. Smith seems to be the starter for now.

Tier 7

27

Maurice Morris

SEA

RB

29

7

Slightly Better

220

900

4.1

5

25

200

8.0

1

171

High

Medium

Holmgren says Morris and Jones will split carries. Jones will probably get more receptions and Duckett will likely get the goalline carries. Morris however looks to be sloghtly ahead of Jones because of his preseason performances.

28

Ronnie Brown

MIA

RB

27

4

Better

210

900

4.3

5

30

225

7.5

1

179

High

High

He is a big question mark because of his knee but he was on pace for a career year and the o-line is much better this year. However, Williams is listed as the starter on the latest depth chart because of Brown's injuries.

29

Ahman Green

HOU

RB

31

11

Better

225

950

4.2

5

30

225

7.5

1

184

Medium

High

The Houston situation is pretty complicated but this offensive line is much improved in run blocking and whoever wins the job will be a sleeper. Injured his groin on his first play of pre-season, not very promising.

30

Matt Forte

CHI

RB

23

1

Same

275

975

3.5

5

20

125

6.3

1

166

Medium

Medium

Forte will be starter from day one eventhough the Bears added Kevin Jones but Chicago's line is probably the worst in the NFL in run blocking. Injury to Chris Williams means line is even worse than we thought initially.

31

Jonathan Stewart

CAR

RB

21

1

Same

230

975

4.2

5

20

150

7.5

0

163

High

Medium

11 RBs were taken between picks 11 and 20 in the NFL Draft and had over 150 carries in their rookie year. Those 11 averaged 185 fantasy pts in a PPR in their rookie year, 5 had less than 170, 5 had more than 225. Williams will steal carries.

32

DeAngelo Williams

CAR

RB

25

3

Same

180

825

4.6

3

30

225

7.5

1

159

High

Medium

See Breakout RBs Article. Williams would have been a perfect breakout candidate had the Panthers not drafted Stewart. The Panthers still have a decent run blocking line and Williams should still get more carries than he did last year.

33

Jerious Norwood

ATL

RB

25

3

Same

150

700

4.7

3

30

275

9.2

2

158

High

Medium

See Breakout RBs Article. Norwood would have been a perfect breakout candidate had the Falcons not signed Turner. The Falcons line is still weak but somehow Norwood manages to have a great YPC average, this could be his year.

Tier 8

34

Chester Taylor

MIN

RB

29

7

Worse

130

575

4.4

5

35

250

7.1

1

154

Low

Low

Vikings line won't be as good without Richardson and Taylor will lose some carries to Peterson. Peterson does have injury concerns however and even if healthy, Taylor will still get about 10 touches a game and many receptions.

35

Chris Johnson

TEN

RB

23

1

Slightly Better

160

625

3.9

2

35

275

7.9

2

149

High

Medium

Coach Fisher said he expects a 50/50  or 60/40 split between White and rookie Chris Johnson.

36

Leon Washington

NYJ

RB

26

3

Better

100

475

4.8

2

45

350

7.8

1

146

High

Medium

See Breakout RBs Article. He won't get many carries with Jones ahead of him but Jones is 30 yrs old. Faneca might make the Jets run to the outside more or use the screen a little more and Washington becomes very useful in that situation.

37

Kenny Watson

CIN

RB

30

7

Slightly Better

130

550

4.2

4

35

250

7.1

1

145

High

Medium

Perry will be the starter but Watson will also steal some carries.

38

Ricky Williams

MIA

RB

10

2

Better

190

750

3.9

4

25

175

7.0

1

148

High

High

Huge question mark but the word out of Miami for now is that he will split carries with Brown. It is hard to believe that he could make a come back to the NFL at 31 years old but you never know. Has been very impressive in camp.

39

LenDale White

TEN

RB

24

3

Slightly Better

220

825

3.8

6

15

90

6.0

0

143

Medium

Medium

Coach Fisher said he expects a 50/50  or 60/40 split between White and rookie Chris Johnson.

40

Julius Jones

SEA

RB

27

5

Slightly Better

160

650

4.1

3

30

225

7.5

1

142

Medium

Medium

Holmgren says Morris and Jones will split carries. Jones will probably get more receptions and Duckett will likely get the goalline carries. Morris however looks to be sloghtly ahead of Jones because of his preseason performances.

41

Fred Taylor

JAC

RB

32

11

Slightly Better

190

900

4.7

4

10

70

7.0

0

131

Medium

Low

Historically 32 yrs old RBs have their performance drop by 25% on average. Of the 10 that had over 175 fantasy pts in their previous season, not a single one improved and 6 decreased by 10% to 20%.

42

Deuce McAllister

NOS

RB

30

8

Slightly Better

175

700

4.0

4

20

125

6.3

0

127

High

Medium

At 30 yrs old it is very difficult to make a comeback to the NFL for a RB and Deuce remains a big risk even if he is supposed to be the starter and healthy.

43

Justin Fargas

OAK

RB

28

6

Slightly Better

160

700

4.4

3

20

150

7.5

0

123

Medium

Low

Fargas is a solid back but he will lose carries to McFadden. He remains a good back who will get about 10 carries a game and a decent replacement for bye weeks.

Tier 9

44

Rashard Mendenhall

PIT

RB

21

1

Slightly Worse

140

550

3.9

3

25

175

7.0

1

122

Medium

Medium

13 RBs were taken between picks 21 and 30 in the NFL Draft and had between 100 and 200 carries in their rookie year. Those 13 averaged 129 fantasy pts in a PPR in their rookie year. Parker will still get most of the carries.

45

Tatum Bell

DET

RB

27

5

Slightly Better

150

600

4.0

3

25

175

7.0

1

127

Medium

High

Detroit has a better run blocking offensive line than most people think, Cherilus is a very good run blocker and new zone blocking scheme should also be good. Smith seems to be the starter, Bell has struggled in pre-season.

46

Ahmad Bradshaw

NYG

RB

22

2

Same

150

700

4.7

3

15

125

8.3

0

116

Medium

Medium

Jacobs is still ahead of him on the depth chart but he'll be used as a change of pace and is a must if you draft Jacobs as one of your top 2 backs.

47

Felix Jones

DAL

RB

21

1

Same

120

475

4.0

2

30

225

7.5

1

118

Low

Medium

13 RBs were taken between picks 21 and 30 in the NFL Draft and had between 100 and 200 carries in their rookie year. Those 13 averaged 129 fantasy pts in a PPR in their rookie year. Barber will still get most of the carries.

48

Fred Jackson

BUF

RB

27

2

Same

100

425

4.3

1

30

250

8.3

1

110