Players in green moved up in the latest rankings and
players in red moved down.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Offensive Line |
2008 Rushing |
2008 Receiving |
|
|
|
|
|
# |
Name |
Team |
Pos |
Age |
Exp |
Run Blocking |
Att |
Yds |
Avg |
TD |
Rec |
Yds |
Avg |
TD |
FPTS |
Reward |
Risk |
|
|
Tier 1 |
|
|
1 |
LaDainian Tomlinson |
SDC |
RB |
29 |
8 |
Same |
320 |
1500 |
4.7 |
14 |
55 |
450 |
8.2 |
2 |
346 |
Medium |
Low |
|
|
Tomlinson has been a top 3 RB for 6 straight years but he is 29
years old; still a very safe pick and the obvious #1 though. |
|
|
|
Tier 2 |
|
|
2 |
Brian Westbrook |
PHI |
RB |
29 |
7 |
Same |
270 |
1250 |
4.6 |
7 |
80 |
700 |
8.8 |
4 |
341 |
Medium |
High |
|
|
See Tomlinson... Westbrook gets a high number of receptions year
after year so is very valuable in a PPR league but has never played
16 games in a season. Coaching staff wants to lighten his workload,
Booker will get some carries. |
|
|
|
3 |
Joseph Addai |
IND |
RB |
25 |
3 |
Better |
290 |
1300 |
4.5 |
12 |
50 |
400 |
8.0 |
2 |
304 |
Medium |
Medium |
|
|
Averaged 4.9 YPC and had 5 TDs last season in first 5 games before
Ugoh and Diem went down but lost Jake Scott in the off-season; the
injury to Saturday is a concern but Addai has a lot of room to
increase his number of carries. |
|
|
|
Tier 3 |
|
|
4 |
Clinton Portis |
WAS |
RB |
27 |
7 |
Better |
320 |
1350 |
4.2 |
10 |
45 |
350 |
7.8 |
1 |
281 |
Medium |
Low |
|
|
There are 17 RBs who are 28 years old or under that were
consistently good for three straight NFL seasons which Portis would
have done had he not missed 8 games in 2006. 13 of them increased or
decreased by less than 10% in the next season. |
|
|
|
5 |
Adrian Peterson |
MIN |
RB |
23 |
2 |
Worse |
280 |
1350 |
4.8 |
13 |
30 |
300 |
10.0 |
1 |
279 |
High |
Medium |
|
|
Dominating rookies improve PPG by about 9%, 59% remain very good,
24% dominate even more. Players in first 5 yrs with YPC between 5.2
and 6.0 and at least 200 carries decrease YPC by 18% in next season.
Loss of Richardson will hurt. |
|
|
|
6 |
Ryan Grant |
GBP |
RB |
26 |
4 |
Better |
275 |
1325 |
4.8 |
9 |
45 |
300 |
6.7 |
1 |
268 |
High |
Medium |
|
|
There are 15 RBs who came out of nowhere in their 2nd, 3rd or 4th
season, 8 of them continued to improve. Grant had 166 pts (in a PPR)
from weeks 8 to 16, projects to 295 over 16 weeks. Rodgers effect is
unknown but probably slightly negative. |
|
|
|
7 |
Reggie Bush |
NOS |
RB |
23 |
3 |
Slightly Better |
180 |
725 |
4.0 |
5 |
85 |
650 |
7.6 |
2 |
265 |
High |
Medium |
|
|
Of the 12 RBs who had over 200 fantasy pts in each of their first 2
seasons and whose fantasy pts increased by any % or decreased by
less than 10% in their 2nd season, 10 increased or decreased by more
than 10% in their 3rd season. |
|
|
|
8 |
Steven Jackson |
STL |
RB |
25 |
5 |
Slightly Better |
320 |
1225 |
3.8 |
7 |
60 |
475 |
7.9 |
2 |
284 |
Medium |
High |
|
|
Only 3 of the 10 RBs 27 yrs old or younger who had a dominant season
followed by a disappointing one managed to improve in the next
season and none returned to the level they were at previously. New
contract but still overrated. |
|
|
|
9 |
Marion Barber |
DAL |
RB |
25 |
4 |
Same |
280 |
1300 |
4.6 |
12 |
30 |
250 |
8.3 |
2 |
269 |
Medium |
Medium |
|
|
Of the 13 RBs entering their 4th or 5th season that showed good
improvement in their previous season, only 3 showed very nice
improvement but only 3 had their performance drop by more than 10%. |
|
|
|
10 |
Maurice Jones-Drew |
JAC |
RB |
23 |
3 |
Slightly Better |
230 |
1100 |
4.8 |
9 |
45 |
400 |
8.9 |
1 |
255 |
Medium |
Low |
|
|
There are few RBs who had similar statistics as MJD in their first
two seasons but historically RBs have their number of carries drop
by about 20% when they reach the age of 32 (Fred Taylor). |
|
|
|
11 |
Willis McGahee |
BAL |
RB |
27 |
5 |
Slightly Better |
275 |
1100 |
4.0 |
9 |
55 |
350 |
6.4 |
1 |
260 |
Medium |
Medium |
|
|
See Breakout RBs Article. He will continue to get all the goal line
touches. On top of that, Cam Cameron gives his RBs the ball a lot in
the red zone and throws to them a lot. Knee injury makes Rice a must
handcuff. |
|
|
|
Tier 4 |
|
|
12 |
Larry Johnson |
KCC |
RB |
29 |
6 |
Slightly Better |
340 |
1300 |
3.8 |
8 |
45 |
350 |
7.8 |
1 |
264 |
Medium |
High |
|
|
There are few RBs with statistics similar to LJ and although his
offensive line did improve it is still one of the worst in the NFL.
The good thing however is that he will continue to get a lot of
touches. |
|
|
|
13 |
Jamal Lewis |
CLE |
RB |
29 |
9 |
Same |
315 |
1300 |
4.1 |
8 |
35 |
250 |
7.1 |
1 |
244 |
Low |
Low |
|
|
Lewis will be 29 and you can't expect him to improve much over last
year but the line is still as good and no one can steal many carries
away from him in Cleveland. Lewis averaged 23 carries a game in the
2nd half of the season. |
|
|
|
14 |
Earnest Graham |
TBB |
RB |
28 |
5 |
Same |
260 |
1050 |
4.0 |
7 |
50 |
350 |
7.0 |
2 |
244 |
High |
High |
|
|
Averaged 22 carries and 4 receptions per game in 6 starts from weeks
9 to 15. Avg improvement is 4% for RBs who became starters in years
3 to 5 and had over 200 pts. Slight downgrade after injury to RG
Joseph. |
|
|
|
15 |
Frank Gore |
SFO |
RB |
25 |
4 |
Slightly Worse |
270 |
1000 |
3.7 |
6 |
60 |
500 |
8.3 |
1 |
252 |
Medium |
High |
|
|
See Jackson... The difference for Gore is that his offensive line is
worse than last year in run blocking but it is better in pass
protection. Injuries to the line are a concern. |
|
|
|
Tier 5 |
|
|
16 |
Marshawn Lynch |
BUF |
RB |
22 |
2 |
Same |
300 |
1200 |
4.0 |
9 |
30 |
250 |
8.3 |
1 |
235 |
Medium |
Medium |
|
|
There are 10 rookies who had between 200 and 275 fantasy pts per
game in a PPR in their rookie year and had over 250 carries in their
2nd season. The average improvement for those was 10%. Jackson will
be more involved in the offense this year. |
|
|
|
17 |
Selvin Young |
DEN |
RB |
25 |
2 |
Slightly Better |
270 |
1250 |
4.6 |
4 |
40 |
275 |
6.9 |
1 |
223 |
High |
Medium |
|
|
No Denver RB has had more than 250 carries since Droughns in 2004
but we think this will change. Selvin's job is secure now with the
injury to Torain but it looks like Hall might be getting the
goalline carries. |
|
|
|
18 |
Edgerrin James |
ARI |
RB |
30 |
10 |
Slightly Better |
290 |
1150 |
4.0 |
9 |
30 |
200 |
6.7 |
0 |
219 |
Medium |
Low |
|
|
A
few RBs managed to surprise and have exceptional seasons at 30 yrs
or older like Charlie Garner in 2002 and Curtis Martin in 2004. The
average 30 yrs old RB who has over 200 carries will drop by about 6%
but the Arizona offense is on the way up. |
|
|
|
19 |
Thomas Jones |
NYJ |
RB |
30 |
9 |
Better |
300 |
1200 |
4.0 |
8 |
30 |
225 |
7.5 |
0 |
221 |
High |
Medium |
|
|
The Jets have the most improved line in terms of run blocking for
2008. Jones has a lot of room to improve his YPC and touchdowns and
is one of our favorite guys this year but make sure you handcuff him
with Leon Washington. |
|
|
|
20 |
Brandon Jacobs |
NYG |
RB |
26 |
4 |
Same |
250 |
1175 |
4.7 |
10 |
25 |
200 |
8.0 |
1 |
229 |
High |
High |
|
|
Jacobs had an excellent YPC average but he will be splitting carries
and he struggles to stay healthy. The good news though is late in
the year and in the playoffs he was finally getting the goal line
carries but make sure you also draft Bradshaw. |
|
|
|
21 |
Darren McFadden |
OAK |
RB |
21 |
1 |
Slightly Better |
210 |
950 |
4.5 |
7 |
35 |
300 |
8.6 |
1 |
208 |
High |
Medium |
|
|
18 RBs were taken in the top 10 picks of the NFL Draft and had over
150 carries in their rookie year. Those 18 averaged 244 fantasy pts
in a PPR in their rookie season and the 11 taken in the top 5
averaged 277 pts. Fargas and Bush will steal carries. |
|
|
|
Tier 6 |
|
|
22 |
Laurence Maroney |
NEP |
RB |
23 |
3 |
Same |
260 |
1050 |
4.0 |
9 |
25 |
225 |
9.0 |
0 |
207 |
High |
High |
|
|
SMaroney is part of the best offense in the NFL and averaged 20
carries and 1.2 TDs per game in the last 3 regular season games and
3 playoff games. However, Patriots also have Jordan, Morris and
Faulk at RB and RG Neal is injured. |
|
|
|
23 |
Chris Perry |
CIN |
RB |
29 |
7 |
Slightly Better |
250 |
975 |
3.9 |
7 |
30 |
200 |
6.7 |
1 |
196 |
High |
High |
|
|
Will be the starter in Cincinnati with Kenny Watson also stealing
some carries. |
|
|
|
24 |
Michael Turner |
ATL |
RB |
26 |
5 |
Same |
275 |
1150 |
4.2 |
7 |
15 |
100 |
6.7 |
0 |
182 |
High |
Medium |
|
|
The Falcons will run the ball more than last season but the line
will be at best the same as it was last year in run blocking, they
will be running a RBBC once again and Turner is not a big receiving
threat. |
|
|
|
25 |
Willie Parker |
PIT |
RB |
28 |
5 |
Slightly Worse |
270 |
1000 |
3.7 |
6 |
30 |
225 |
7.5 |
1 |
195 |
Low |
Medium |
|
|
12 RBs had a very good season followed by a decrease in pts of 20%
to 50% (36% for Parker) at 27 yrs or under. In the next season, only
3 improved by more than 10%. Add a worse o-line and Mendenhall and
it's not looking good for Parker. |
|
|
|
26 |
Kevin Smith |
DET |
RB |
22 |
1 |
Slightly Better |
225 |
900 |
4.0 |
7 |
30 |
200 |
6.7 |
1 |
188 |
High |
High |
|
|
Detroit has a better run blocking offensive line than most people
think, Cherilus is a very good run blocker and new zone blocking
scheme should also be good. Smith seems to be the starter for now. |
|
|
|
Tier 7 |
|
|
27 |
Maurice Morris |
SEA |
RB |
29 |
7 |
Slightly Better |
220 |
900 |
4.1 |
5 |
25 |
200 |
8.0 |
1 |
171 |
High |
Medium |
|
|
Holmgren says Morris and Jones will split carries. Jones will
probably get more receptions and Duckett will likely get the
goalline carries. Morris however looks to be sloghtly ahead of Jones
because of his preseason performances. |
|
|
|
28 |
Ronnie Brown |
MIA |
RB |
27 |
4 |
Better |
210 |
900 |
4.3 |
5 |
30 |
225 |
7.5 |
1 |
179 |
High |
High |
|
|
He is a big question mark because of his knee but he was on pace for
a career year and the o-line is much better this year. However,
Williams is listed as the starter on the latest depth chart because
of Brown's injuries. |
|
|
|
29 |
Ahman Green |
HOU |
RB |
31 |
11 |
Better |
225 |
950 |
4.2 |
5 |
30 |
225 |
7.5 |
1 |
184 |
Medium |
High |
|
|
The Houston situation is pretty complicated but this offensive line
is much improved in run blocking and whoever wins the job will be a
sleeper. Injured his groin on his first play of pre-season, not very
promising. |
|
|
|
30 |
Matt Forte |
CHI |
RB |
23 |
1 |
Same |
275 |
975 |
3.5 |
5 |
20 |
125 |
6.3 |
1 |
166 |
Medium |
Medium |
|
|
Forte will be starter from day one eventhough the Bears added Kevin
Jones but Chicago's line is probably the worst in the NFL in run
blocking. Injury to Chris Williams means line is even worse than we
thought initially. |
|
|
|
31 |
Jonathan Stewart |
CAR |
RB |
21 |
1 |
Same |
230 |
975 |
4.2 |
5 |
20 |
150 |
7.5 |
0 |
163 |
High |
Medium |
|
|
11 RBs were taken between picks 11 and 20 in the NFL Draft and had
over 150 carries in their rookie year. Those 11 averaged 185 fantasy
pts in a PPR in their rookie year, 5 had less than 170, 5 had more
than 225. Williams will steal carries. |
|
|
|
32 |
DeAngelo Williams |
CAR |
RB |
25 |
3 |
Same |
180 |
825 |
4.6 |
3 |
30 |
225 |
7.5 |
1 |
159 |
High |
Medium |
|
|
See Breakout RBs Article. Williams would have been a perfect
breakout candidate had the Panthers not drafted Stewart. The
Panthers still have a decent run blocking line and Williams should
still get more carries than he did last year. |
|
|
|
33 |
Jerious Norwood |
ATL |
RB |
25 |
3 |
Same |
150 |
700 |
4.7 |
3 |
30 |
275 |
9.2 |
2 |
158 |
High |
Medium |
|
|
See Breakout RBs Article. Norwood would have been a perfect breakout
candidate had the Falcons not signed Turner. The Falcons line is
still weak but somehow Norwood manages to have a great YPC average,
this could be his year. |
|
|
|
Tier 8 |
|
|
34 |
Chester Taylor |
MIN |
RB |
29 |
7 |
Worse |
130 |
575 |
4.4 |
5 |
35 |
250 |
7.1 |
1 |
154 |
Low |
Low |
|
|
Vikings line won't be as good without Richardson and Taylor will
lose some carries to Peterson. Peterson does have injury concerns
however and even if healthy, Taylor will still get about 10 touches
a game and many receptions. |
|
|
|
35 |
Chris Johnson |
TEN |
RB |
23 |
1 |
Slightly Better |
160 |
625 |
3.9 |
2 |
35 |
275 |
7.9 |
2 |
149 |
High |
Medium |
|
|
Coach Fisher said he expects a 50/50 or 60/40 split between White
and rookie Chris Johnson. |
|
|
|
36 |
Leon Washington |
NYJ |
RB |
26 |
3 |
Better |
100 |
475 |
4.8 |
2 |
45 |
350 |
7.8 |
1 |
146 |
High |
Medium |
|
|
See Breakout RBs Article. He won't get many carries with Jones ahead
of him but Jones is 30 yrs old. Faneca might make the Jets run to
the outside more or use the screen a little more and Washington
becomes very useful in that situation. |
|
|
|
37 |
Kenny Watson |
CIN |
RB |
30 |
7 |
Slightly Better |
130 |
550 |
4.2 |
4 |
35 |
250 |
7.1 |
1 |
145 |
High |
Medium |
|
|
Perry will be the starter but Watson will also steal some carries. |
|
|
|
38 |
Ricky Williams |
MIA |
RB |
10 |
2 |
Better |
190 |
750 |
3.9 |
4 |
25 |
175 |
7.0 |
1 |
148 |
High |
High |
|
|
Huge question mark but the word out of Miami for now is that he will
split carries with Brown. It is hard to believe that he could make a
come back to the NFL at 31 years old but you never know. Has been
very impressive in camp. |
|
|
|
39 |
LenDale White |
TEN |
RB |
24 |
3 |
Slightly Better |
220 |
825 |
3.8 |
6 |
15 |
90 |
6.0 |
0 |
143 |
Medium |
Medium |
|
|
Coach Fisher said he expects a 50/50 or 60/40 split between White
and rookie Chris Johnson. |
|
|
|
40 |
Julius Jones |
SEA |
RB |
27 |
5 |
Slightly Better |
160 |
650 |
4.1 |
3 |
30 |
225 |
7.5 |
1 |
142 |
Medium |
Medium |
|
|
Holmgren says Morris and Jones will split carries. Jones will
probably get more receptions and Duckett will likely get the
goalline carries. Morris however looks to be sloghtly ahead of Jones
because of his preseason performances. |
|
|
|
41 |
Fred Taylor |
JAC |
RB |
32 |
11 |
Slightly Better |
190 |
900 |
4.7 |
4 |
10 |
70 |
7.0 |
0 |
131 |
Medium |
Low |
|
|
Historically 32 yrs old RBs have their performance drop by 25% on
average. Of the 10 that had over 175 fantasy pts in their previous
season, not a single one improved and 6 decreased by 10% to 20%. |
|
|
|
42 |
Deuce McAllister |
NOS |
RB |
30 |
8 |
Slightly Better |
175 |
700 |
4.0 |
4 |
20 |
125 |
6.3 |
0 |
127 |
High |
Medium |
|
|
At 30 yrs old it is very difficult to make a comeback to the NFL for
a RB and Deuce remains a big risk even if he is supposed to be the
starter and healthy. |
|
|
|
43 |
Justin Fargas |
OAK |
RB |
28 |
6 |
Slightly Better |
160 |
700 |
4.4 |
3 |
20 |
150 |
7.5 |
0 |
123 |
Medium |
Low |
|
|
Fargas is a solid back but he will lose carries to McFadden. He
remains a good back who will get about 10 carries a game and a
decent replacement for bye weeks. |
|
|
|
Tier 9 |
|
|
44 |
Rashard Mendenhall |
PIT |
RB |
21 |
1 |
Slightly Worse |
140 |
550 |
3.9 |
3 |
25 |
175 |
7.0 |
1 |
122 |
Medium |
Medium |
|
|
13 RBs were taken between picks 21 and 30 in the NFL Draft and had
between 100 and 200 carries in their rookie year. Those 13 averaged
129 fantasy pts in a PPR in their rookie year. Parker will still get
most of the carries. |
|
|
|
45 |
Tatum Bell |
DET |
RB |
27 |
5 |
Slightly Better |
150 |
600 |
4.0 |
3 |
25 |
175 |
7.0 |
1 |
127 |
Medium |
High |
|
|
Detroit has a better run blocking offensive line than most people
think, Cherilus is a very good run blocker and new zone blocking
scheme should also be good. Smith seems to be the starter, Bell has
struggled in pre-season. |
|
|
|
46 |
Ahmad Bradshaw |
NYG |
RB |
22 |
2 |
Same |
150 |
700 |
4.7 |
3 |
15 |
125 |
8.3 |
0 |
116 |
Medium |
Medium |
|
|
Jacobs is still ahead of him on the depth chart but he'll be used as
a change of pace and is a must if you draft Jacobs as one of your
top 2 backs. |
|
|
|
47 |
Felix Jones |
DAL |
RB |
21 |
1 |
Same |
120 |
475 |
4.0 |
2 |
30 |
225 |
7.5 |
1 |
118 |
Low |
Medium |
|
|
13 RBs were taken between picks 21 and 30 in the NFL Draft and had
between 100 and 200 carries in their rookie year. Those 13 averaged
129 fantasy pts in a PPR in their rookie year. Barber will still get
most of the carries. |
|
|
|
48 |
Fred Jackson |
BUF |
RB |
27 |
2 |
Same |
100 |
425 |
4.3 |
1 |
30 |
250 |
8.3 |
1 |
110 |
|