Team:
Baltimore Ravens Position: Running Back
Height: 5-10 Weight: 215 lbs Born: 08-19-79 Experience: 9th season
Past three seasons:
Rushing
Receiving
Year
Team
G
GS
Att
Yds
Avg
TD
Rec
Yds
Avg
TD
2007
Baltimore
Ravens
15
15
294
1,207
4.1
7
43
231
5.4
1
2006
Buffalo
Bills
14
14
259
990
3.8
6
18
156
8.7
0
2005
Buffalo
Bills
16
15
325
1,247
3.8
5
28
178
6.4
0
Career: Willis McGahee’s career with the University of Miami had an unfortunate ending as
he suffered a horrifying knee injury in the 2003 Fiesta Bowl against the Ohio State
Buckeyes. He tore several ligaments in his left knee and scouts were very concerned with
his health entering the NFL Draft which caused him to drop to the 23rd pick where the
Buffalo Bills were very happy to select him. McGahee spent the entire 2003 season
rehabilitating but when he was healthy in 2004, he managed to break the 1,000 yards mark
and also had 13 touchdowns. In his next season, McGahee once again broke the 1,000 yards
mark but his yards per carry average dropped to a disappointing 3.8 and he only had six
rushing touchdowns. The 2006 season was as disappointing for McGahee because his yards per
carry average stayed at 3.8 and he also missed two games due to a broken rib. Many in
Buffalo criticized McGahee for his lack of stamina and he was traded to the Baltimore
Ravens last off-season in return for several draft picks. In his first season with the
Ravens, McGahee improved over his previous performances in Buffalo and had his highest
career yards per carry average with 4.1. McGahee may not have the best career statistics
but he has never had the opportunity to run behind a top offensive line. He has still
shown that he can reach the 1,000 yards mark year after year and has the abilities to
score often in the red zone.
Supporting Cast: The Baltimore Ravens have been a team focused mainly on defense ever since Brian
Billick took over as head coach in 1999. Under Billick, the Ravens only ranked in the top
10 for points scored once which was in 2003 and also only ranked once in the top 15 for
yards when they ranked 14th in 2001. Things are likely to change with new head coach John
Harbaugh and newly hired offensive coordinator Cam Cameron. Although Cameron had a
difficult year as head coach in Miami with a 1-15 record, he was very impressive as an
offensive coordinator with San Diego from 2002-2006, and even with Miami, Ronnie Brown was
on pace for a career year before his injury. The Ravens have yet to find a starting
quarterback and there is going to be a very good battle in training camp, especially now
that Steve McNair has announced his retirement. The inconsistent Kyle Boller as well as
2006 Heisman Trophy winner Troy Smith out of Ohio State University and 2008 first round
pick Joe Flacco are the three candidates for the job. Troy Smith would be a very
interesting option at quarterback as he is a running threat because of his speed which
would open up holes for McGahee. The Ravens offensive line may seem like a big question
mark because of the retirement of Jonathan Ogden but the situation is better than most
people think. In 2007, Ogden was inactive from weeks two through seven due to an injury
and the Ravens running game averaged 3.9 yards per carry during that period. Ogden's
replacement will be Jared Gaither who is an excellent run blocker because of his size and
strength. With Grubbs moving to left guard and Brown moving to center, the left side of
the line will be very powerful in run blocking. For more details you are encouraged to
read the full analysis of Baltimore's offensive
line but this line should be slightly better than it was last season in run blocking
even without Ogden.
Job Security: Willis McGahee is the clear starter for the Baltimore Ravens in 2008 but the team did
daft Ray Rice in the second round to push McGahee and eventually replace him. The Ravens
surprisingly exercised McGahee’s 2009 option bonus one year early which is a clear
sign that the new management believes in McGahee and that he is their man. Rice will be
used as a change of pace back for McGahee but should not be a threat to steal the starting
job this year. Furthermore, there is no threat on the Ravens roster to steal goal line
carries from McGahee therefore if the offense gets on track; there is no ceiling for his
touchdown number.
Fantasy Outlook: Willis McGahee’s statistics in 2008 are highly dependent on the performance of
his offensive line. He is the sure starter in Baltimore and as long as he remains healthy
should carry the ball close to 300 times. He should be able to match his 2007 performance
with around 1,200 yards and 6 to 8 touchdowns. McGahee was targeted much more in the
passing game in 2007 with Baltimore than he had been previously with Buffalo and as he
continues to improve in that department, his number of receptions should continue to
increase. As mentioned in my breakout running backs article, McGahee is a candidate to
have a breakout season based on his statistics which could easily happen if the offensive
line starts to click. It is hard to believe that McGahee could suddenly become a top tier
running back this season because the Baltimore offensive line is still very young but the
line has a lot of upside and he is unlikely to drop because he will have the ball in his
hands very often. Willis McGahee is therefore a low risk player with medium reward.
