Career: Terrell Owens has had a career filled with controversy but there is no doubt that he
is one of the best wide receivers in the past decade. Owens was an excellent athlete and
played basketball, football and ran track at the University of Tennessee at Chattanooga.
Owens was a dominant player in college but his statistics took a hit in his senior season
as he had to play against double coverage very often which caused his stock to drop for
the 1996 NFL Draft. Owens was selected by the San Francisco 49ers in the third round and
made an impact in his second season with 60 catches. In 2004, Owens signed with the
Philadelphia Eagles after the 49ers had traded him to the Ravens, believing that they
still held Owens’s rights. Everything was settled and Owens spent the next two
seasons in Philadelphia but Owens was then unhappy with his contract with the Eagles and
they deactivated him in the middle of the 2005 season. Owens then signed with the Dallas
Cowboys and had double-digit touchdown numbers for the sixth and seventh time in his
12-year career.
Supporting Cast: The Dallas Cowboys finished the 2007 season with 13 wins but lost to the New York
Giants and failed to advance to the NFC Championship. The Cowboys finished second in the
NFL in points scored and third in yards of offense and many see them as the favorites to
represent the NFC in the Super Bowl this year. Tony Romo will return as the starting
quarterback for a third consecutive season and although he has failed to take his game to
another level in the playoffs, he has shown he is one of the best in the regular season.
The offensive line will return its five starters but as you can see in our in-depth
analysis of the Dallas
Cowboys offensive line, age is starting to become problem. The Cowboys have the oldest
offensive line in the NFL with an average age of 30 years old, including starting left
tackle Flozell Adams who is 33. The line has some pretty good depth but replacing Adams or
Davis could be difficult if either were to be injured. The Cowboys hired Hudson Houck as
their offensive line coach after Tony Sparano took the head coaching job with the Miami
Dolphins. Since 2001, offensive lines coached by Houck have given up on average 31 sacks
but they averaged 41 the year before he arrived and the year after he left.At running back the Cowboys lost Julius Jones who
signed with the Seattle Seahawks but drafted Felix Jones to replace him. Julius Jones
struggled last season and his loss should not be much of a factor for this offense.
Overall, the Cowboys offense should be as good if not better with Houck replacing Sparano
and Felix Jones replacing Julius Jones but Flozell Adams is a big key to this offense and
must stay healthy at 33 years old.
Job Security: Owens is the clear number one receiver in Dallas with Jason Witten also getting his
share of receptions at tight end. The problem is that after Owens and Witten there is
little depth at the position. Terry Glenn is a question mark at 34 years old with his knee
injuries so much that the Cowboys want him to sign an injury waiver. Patrick Crayton and
Sam Hurd are the other two receivers on the team but neither of those will draw coverage
away from Owens.
Fantasy Outlook: Terrell Owens is very talented but he will be 35 years old in December and you have to
wonder if he can continue to perform at a high level. Owens has played all 16 games in a
season only twice in the past nine years (four if you include that he sat out the last
game in 2003 and 2007) but there is no doubt that when he plays, he puts up impressive
numbers. Since 2000, his lowest number of receptions per game is 5.3 which equals to 85
receptions over 16 games. There is a concern however that two of his lowest receptions per
16 games totals came in the last two years with Dallas. Furthermore, receivers who turn 35
years old during the season tend to struggle. Those who play more than 12 games and had
over 200 fantasy points have a decrease of 16% on average and many struggle with injuries
like Marvin Harrison did last year. If we look more closely at Owens’s statistics
last season we notice he had his highest yards per reception average ever. If we look at
wide receivers between the ages of 28 and 35 who had similar averages, Owens should drop
to about 15 yards per reception in 2008. His touchdown numbers were also very high and
based on historical averages should drop to about 12 this season. This means that to match
last year’s total of 307 fantasy points in a PPR league, Owens would need 94
receptions; a number he has not reached since 2002. Even if he has a very respectable 80
receptions, Owens would drop to 272 fantasy points which would have ranked him 10th
amongst wide receivers last season.Overall, he
is a medium reward player because he would really need to beat the odds to improve over
last year and is a high risk player because he is 35 years old and has struggled with
injuries throughout his career. As you can see in our 2008 Wide Receiver Rankings
and Projections, Owens is still a top receiver but he is unlikely to finish in the top
three like last year.
