Supporting Cast: The Arizona Cardinals took a big step forward last season winning eight games for the
first time since 1999 under first year head coach Ken Whisenhunt. There will once again be
a quarterback controversy in Arizona between former first round pick Matt Leinart and
veteran Kurt Warner. Last season Leinart was the starter until he was injured and Kurt
Warner was very impressive when he replaced him in the final 11 games of the season.
However, even when Leinart was healthy, Whisenhunt often replaced him with Warner when the
Cardinals approached the red zone. Whisenhunt has said that Leinart is the starter for now
but with Warner not very far behind because of how he performed last year. The Cardinals
offensive line was much improved last season under new offensive line coach Russ Grimm,
formerly of the Pittsburgh Steelers. As you can read in our full analysis of the
Arizona Cardinals offensive line, the Cardinals have all five starters returning but
could be improved since last year they only played seven full games together because of
injuries. This line is very young with an average age of 27 years old and could become one
of the good offensive lines in this league if everyone stays together for a few years.
Veteran Edgerrin James will be the starter at running back for a third consecutive season.
James will be 30 years old when the season begins but he has carried the ball over 2,800
times in his career so you have to wonder how much more he can take. Last season he had 25
less touches than the year before and the coaching staff may look to decrease that number
again this year but none of the other backs have done much to earn more carries. Overall
we can expect more of the same with all the starters returning this year and the only
notable loss being third wide receiver Bryant Johnson.
Job Security: Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin are one of the most devastating duos of wide
receivers in the NFL. Last year the two of them combined for 171 receptions which was the
fourth highest in the NFL for a duo of wide receivers. Bryant Johnson who had 45
receptions last season signed a one-year deal with the San Francisco 49ers in the hopes of
becoming a starter. This could allow fourth year receiver Jerheme Urban to take a bigger
place in the offense but he will have to compete with rookie Early Doucet and second year
Steve Breaston.
Fantasy Outlook: Larry Fitzgerald finished the 2007 season as the fifth best wide receiver in fantasy
leagues, his second top five in three years. The question however is whether he will
respond better to the pressure of being a top receiver this year than he did in 2006. The
best way to predict how Fitzgerald might react is to look at historical statistics and see
how others in the same situation performed. There are 11 wide receivers 28 years old and
under who had a season of more than 200 fantasy points, followed by a decrease of at least
10%, and in the following season had an increase of 10% and over 200 fantasy points. These
are wide receivers who managed to bounce back after a difficult season but we want to know
if they can keep that level of play for two consecutive seasons. The average decrease for
these 11 receivers is 9%. It is a very small sample but if we only look at players who had
an improvement of between 15% and 45% in the previous season (Fitzgerald improved by 30%
last year), their average decrease is 12%. One would have to believe that the average
decrease is less for a player who has been good in two of the past three seasons than for
one who was only good for one season. The quarterback situation should not have much of an
impact on Fitzgerald because both Leinart and Warner used him as their number one receiver
last year and either one could play this year. The departure of Johnson can only help but
should not have much of an impact since he had 20 of his 45 receptions in the five games
that Boldin or Fitzgerald missed. In terms of injuries, Fitzgerald has missed four games
in the past two seasons but he had not missed one in his first two NFL seasons so he is
not more of an injury risk than other receivers. Overall he is a medium risk player with
medium reward who should have very similar statistics as last year if he manages to play
all 16 games.
