Team:Dallas
Cowboys Position: Tight End
Height: 6-5 Weight: 265 lbs Born: 05-06-82 Experience: 6th season
Past three seasons:
Receiving
Year
Team
G
GS
Rec
Yds
Avg
TD
2007
Dallas Cowboys
16
16
96
1,145
11.9
7
2006
Dallas Cowboys
16
15
64
754
11.8
1
2006
Dallas Cowboys
16
16
66
757
11.5
6
Career: Jason Witten was recruited as a defensive end in college but made the switch to tight
end, a position he also played in high school, because of the lack of depth at the
position at Tennessee. Witten left Tennessee after his junior season after breaking the
record for the most receptions and receiving yards in a season by a tight end. He was
selected in the third round of the 2003 NFL Draft and surprisingly the fifth tight end to
be drafted. Witten still had a lot to learn at the position and started only seven games
in his rookie season but he rapidly became one of the best in the league as he was named
to his first Pro Bowl in only his second season. His receptions dropped from 87 to 66 in
his third season when Drew Bledsoe became the starting quarterback. The arrival of Terrell
Owens in 2006 made Witten the number three target in the passing game behind him and Glenn
so his red zone looks werelimited. Last season, Terry Glenn suffered a knee injury which
kept him out for the entire 2007 season and allowed Witten to become the number one tight
end in the NFL.
Supporting Cast: There is no doubt that the Cowboys have one of the best offenses in the NFL and many
would argue they are the most talented team in the NFC. The Cowboys still have the 28 year
old Tony Romo at quarterback who has been named to two consecutive Pro Bowls after taking
over for Drew Bledsoe in the middle of the 2006 season. The Cowboys still have one of the
best offensive lines in the league but starting left tackle Flozell Adams may start to
slow down at 33 years old. The line was quite lucky in 2007 as it stayed intact for the
first 14 games so it probably performed at the best of its abilities last season. The
Cowboys do have pretty good depth so they should be able to deal reasonably well with
injuries but Adams will have to keep up his solid play for this passing game to remain
effective. The departure of Tony Sparano as assistant head coach and offensive line coach
could hurt but his replacement Hudson Houck is also a very well respected offensive line
coach. You can find a detailed analysis of the Cowboys offensive line here. At wide
receiver, Terrell Owens is by far the number one target with Terry Glenn still a question
mark for the 2008 season. The Cowboys could use a better number two receiver but Patrick
Crayton did a pretty good job last season in his fourth year in the NFL. Sam Hurd is
entering his third season in the NFL and provides depth at the position but with Owens now
at 34 years old, the Cowboys will soon have to add more depth at the wide receiver
position. The loss of Julius Jones at running back should not be too difficult to deal
with since Marion Barber was the better of the two last season and the Cowboys also added
Felix Jones in the 2008 NFL Draft.
Job Security: Jason Witten’s job as the number one tight end is very secure but the Cowboys did
add TE Martellus Bennett in the second round of the 2008 NFL Draft. Bennett will replace
Anthony Fasano as the number two tight end but this could be good new for Witten who may
be used in the slot much more this season.
Fantasy Outlook: Jason Witten became the number one tight end in 2007, a title which Gates had held for
three straight years. The average decrease for the 14 tight ends who had breakout seasons
similar to Witten is 11% but by looking more closely at Witten’s statistics we will
notice a few interesting things. Witten’s yards per receptions average has been
between 11.3 and 11.9 for four straight seasons so it is safe to assume that it will once
again be around that number. Over the last four seasons, the percentage of balls thrown
his way that he has caught has also been pretty consistent and has stayed between 68% and
74%. Witten only had one touchdown in 2006 but had six in both 2004 and 2005 and had seven
last season. It is quite safe to assume that 2006 was an anomaly and that Witten will
continue to have at least six touchdowns but it could be much more with Owens getting
older. To be conservative, we will say that Witten’s number of targets will drop by
15% in 2008 which means he would be targeted 120 times. We mentioned earlier that Witten
had shown he consistently catches 68% of his number of targets for between 11.3 and 11.9
yards on average which would give him 82 receptions for about 950 yards. Those
conservative projections show that Witten will still be one of the top tight ends in this
league even if Crayton and Glenn are targeted more often in 2008. Overall Witten is a low
risk player with medium reward if selected in the late fourth round. It is very rare that
a tight end you select this early will make you win your league but a player like Witten
is a safe selection that will not make you lose your league.
