Ultimate Fantasy Football Strategy

Frank Gore

Team: San Francisco 49ers
Position: Running Back
Height: 5-9
Weight: 223 lbs
Born: 05-14-83
Experience: 4th season

Past three seasons:

				Rushing				Receiving
Year	Team	G	GS	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	Rec	Yds	Avg	TD
2007	San Francisco 49ers	15	15	260	1102	4.2	5	53	436	8.2	1
2006	San Francisco 49ers	16	16	312	1695	5.4	8	61	485	8	1
2005	San Francisco 49ers	14	1	127	608	4.8	3	15	131	8.7	0

Career:
Frank Gore was selected in the third round of the 2005 NFL Draft by the San Francisco 49ers out of the University of Miami. Gore only saw limited action in his rookie year but his 4.8 yards per carry average opened some eyes. In his second season, Gore became the starting running back from day one after the departure of Kevan Barlow and was third in the NFL in rushing yards behind only LaDainian Tomlinson and Larry Johnson. Offensive coordinator Norv Turner left in the 2007 off-season to become head coach the San Diego Chargers. The 49ers had the worst offense in the NFL in both yards and points scored in 2007 after his departure. Gore still managed to reach 1,100 yards but had his worst yards per carry average in three years.

Supporting Cast:
The biggest change for the San Francisco 49ers this off-season was the signing of Mike Martz as offensive coordinator. Martz is known for favoring the passing game as we saw in the past two seasons with Detroit and in St. Louis previously. The Lions ranked last in the NFL in rushing attempts in each of the last two seasons with an average of only 19.6 attempts per game and they had 25.2 in 2005 before Martz arrived. Furthermore, the Rams averaged only 24.1 rushing attempts per game in six years under Martz while they had 26.9 the year before Martz arrived and 26.5 the year after he left. Looking at those numbers it is evident that Martz prefers to pass the ball and does neglect the run at times. The 49ers ranked 31^st in the NFL in rushing attempts last season with 22.3 per game and it is hard to believe that number will increase much in 2008. There will be big changes to the 49ers offensive line with the likely retirement of Larry Allen and the loss of Justin Smiley. The line will be better in pass protection with Staley moving to left tackle but Larry Allen was a very good run blocker and his loss will hurt the team as they averaged 0.9 yards per carry less in the five games that he missed in 2006. There will be an interesting battle between Alex Smith and Shaun Hill for the quarterback position in training camp but Smith is expected to win the job. At wide receiver the 49ers added Bryant Johnson and Isaac Bruce but let go Darrell Jackson in the off-season. This wide receiver group is much weaker compared to the one Martz had in Detroit which leads us to believe that he may have to run the ball slightly more than he did last season.

Job Security:
Frank Gore is the number one running back for the 49ers even though they added DeShaun Foster in the off-season. Foster will compete with Michael Robinson for the backup job but neither is much of a threat to steal goal line carries and Gore is still expected to have about 75% to 80% of the carries.

Fantasy Outlook:
There are plenty of question marks for Frank Gore this season with the arrival of Mike Martz and the weaker offensive line. There are 15 running backs who had a season of over 275 fantasy pts (Gore had 333 points) followed by a decrease in performance of 10% to 35% at 26 years old or under (Gore decreased by 22% at 24 years old). The average decrease in performance in the next season for those 15 running backs was 2.5% and only three managed to improve by more than 10%. By looking solely at these historical statistics, we would expect Gore’s fantasy points total to decrease slightly and drop to about 250 per 16 games in a PPR scoring system. These statistics combined with the question marks on the offensive line as well as Mike Martz, whose teams have averaged about 60 to 70 carries less than they did before he arrived and after he left, make Frank Gore a high risk player. Gore has shown that he is a good running back but the situation in San Francisco is not very favorable so he is only a medium reward player and it is difficult to expect much more than the 1,500 rushing and receiving yards and 6 touchdowns he had in 2007.