Career: Braylon Edwards had an exceptional career at the University of Michigan and broke many
records including the most career receptions, yards and touchdowns as well as the single
season record for receptions and yards. Edwards was the consensus number one receiver in
the 2005 NFL Draft and was selected by the Cleveland Browns with the third overall pick.
Edwards missed part of training camp in his rookie season because of a holdout and was
therefore the team’s third receiver when the season began. His rookie season was
filled with injuries and he played in only 10 games. Edwards’s second season was much
better but it was not until last season that he truly broke out. The improved offensive
line and the emergence of Derek Anderson as one of the best starting quarterbacks in the
NFL allowed Edwards to have 80 receptions for close to 1,300 yards and an astonishing 16
touchdowns, second to only Randy Moss in 2007. Edwards was rewarded for his excellent
season with his first ever Pro Bowl selection.
Supporting Cast: The two main reasons for the Browns’ success last season were the offensive line
and Derek Anderson. Anderson will be back this season and all five starters on the line
will also return this season. There is no reason why this line will not be as good as it
was last season if everyone remains healthy but the one concern is that there is little
depth at the tackle position. You can find more details in our in-depth analysis of the Cleveland Browns
offensive line. Jamal Lewis and Kellen Winslow Jr who were two big parts of this
offense last season will also return. Lewis is getting old and the running game could
struggle if the Browns are unable to find a capable replacement in the near future.
Winslow is one of the best tight ends in the NFL and when he is healthy, draws coverage
from the safeties and allows Edwards to play against single coverage more often than he
should. This offense will be very similar this season but last year everyone was healthy
so depth remains a question mark.
Job Security: Edwards is the clear number one receiver but the Browns signed Donte Stallworth from
the New England Patriots in the off-season. The signing of Stallworth will improve the
group of receivers but his style is quite similar to Edwards, although less talented.
Jurevicius provides good depth at wide receiver and recently stated that he would
relinquish his role as the team’s number two receiver and that he would be much more
suited as a number three. The three receivers will be a very good trio but last season
Edwards caught 80 of the 141 passes completed to all wide receivers and had 16 of the 20
touchdowns, something that should change this season.
Fantasy Outlook: There is no doubt that Braylon Edwards is a very talented player but many other wide
receivers had one very good season and were never able to match those totals so you have
to be very cautious with him this year. There are 20 wide receivers that improved by more
than 30% and had over 250 fantasy points (Edwards had 305) in their first four NFL
seasons. The average decrease for those 20 was 16.5%, only one continued to improve and
ten decreased by more than 15%. If we focus on the nine that had over 280 fantasy points,
the average decrease was 17.3% and none improved. Furthermore, of the 24 wide receivers
that had over 13 touchdowns in a season and played at least 14 games in the following
season, only 12 had over 10 touchdowns the following year. Their average decrease in
touchdowns was 42% which would mean Edwards would have about 9 or 10 this year. Looking at
those statistics alone it would seem very unlikely that Edwards can even come close to
matching his totals from last year. If we also consider that Cleveland’s offense was
very healthy last season and that the Browns added Donte Stallworth at receiver, it makes
Edwards a very risky pick in the first two rounds of your draft. Edwards is very unlikely
to have more than 12 touchdowns this year and his receptions and yards could also drop
slightly. Overall, he is a medium reward and medium risk player if you project him to have
about a 15% decrease in fantasy points as we did in our 2008 Wide Receiver Rankings
and Projections.
