Career: Andre Johnson had a lot of pressure coming out of the University of Miami and being
selected third overall by the Houston Texans in the 2003 NFL Draft. Johnson was drafted to
be David Carr’s standout the receiver and the tea was hoping the two of them would
build chemistry. Carr never lived up to expectations but Johnson made it to the Pro Bowl
in just his second NFL season when he had over 1,100 yards. He then had a disappointing
season in 2005 where he missed a few games because of injuries but he bounced back in 2006
with another 1,000 yards season and a second Pro Bowl selection. Last season was however
Johnson’s true breakout season with over 800 yards and eight touchdowns in only nine
games. It was the team’s first season without David Carr and they did not disappoint
ranking in the first half in yards and points for the first time in franchise history.
Supporting Cast: The Houston Texans made a big change last season when they acquired Matt Schaub from
the Atlanta Falcons. Schaub’s season was filled with injuries and he only played six
complete games. Schaub was however very impressive with completing an amazing 66% of his
passes and his return this year should help the team even though Rosenfels was good in
relief. The offensive line was equally impressive giving up only 22 sacks; it was the
first time in franchise history that they allowed less than 35. The offensive line should
be improved this year, as you can read in our full analysis of the
Houston Texans offensive line, with the additions of Duane Brown and Chris Myers. The
Texans struggled to run the ball last year but this could change with the addition of Alex
Gibbs to the coaching staff. Gibbs is the mastermind behind the zone blocking scheme being
used by more and more teams. In his nine years with the Broncos, they averaged 4.5 yards
per carry and the Falcons running backs also averaged 4.5 yards per carry in his three
years with them. The Texans which averaged only 3.8 yards per carry could easily jump up
to 4.2 or 4.3 this season with Gibbs and the improved line. The running back position is a
question mark however with Ahman Green, Chris Brown, Darius Walker and Steve Slaton. Green
is 31 years old and has missed 23 games in the past three years; Chris Brown has never
played a full season and never carried the ball more than 225 times in a season while
Darius Walker and Steve Slaton are unproven.
Job Security: There is no doubt that Andre Johnson is the number one target and the best player on
this offense. Kevin Walter had a good season in 2007 when he was given a bigger role after
Johnson suffered an injury and it will likely make him a better player this year. Andre
Davis and Jacoby Jones provide depth while tight end Owen Daniels is becoming more and
more important for this offense.
Fantasy Outlook: Andre Johnson is one of the most difficult players to evaluate considering he was
second for wide receivers in fantasy points per game right behind Randy Moss but he only
played nine games. If we project Johnson’s statistics over 16 games, he would have
had 107 receptions for 1,500 yards and 14 touchdowns. There was nothing abnormal with his
receptions total since he had 103 the year before so we can probably expect over 100 once
again. Johnson however had 14.2 yards per catch when he only had 10.9 and 11.1 in the two
previous seasons and he had eight touchdowns in nine games. Based on historical statistics
we can expect a 10% drop in yards per catch and a 40% drop in touchdowns. This would give
Johnson about 100 receptions for 1,300 yards and 10 touchdowns. The problem however is
that these decreases are assuming that Johnson had played 16 games and had been able to
keep playing as well as he did for those nine games. The only player who had similar
statistics was Terrell Owens in 2005 but he changed team the following season so it is not
a good reference. The best we can do is assume he would have been able to keep that pace
over 16 games but make Johnson a high risk player because he has missed 10 games in the
past three years and because his statistics last year were over only nine games. Johnson
also has a high reward because of what he showed last year playing with two different
quarterbacks and he could be even better with a full year with Schaub as his quarterback.
