Ultimate Fantasy Football Strategy - Offensive Line Analysis

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Minnesota Vikings

2008 Projected Starters:
Left Tackle: Bryant McKinnie
Left Guard: Steve Hutchinson
Center: Matt Birk
Right Guard: Anthony Herrera
Right Tackle: Ryan Cook

2007 Injuries:
None

2007 Statistics:

LEFT END		LEFT TACKLE		MID/GUARD		RIGHT TACKLE		RIGHT END		Passing
ALY	Rank	ALY	Rank	ALY	Rank	ALY	Rank	ALY	Rank	Sacks	Rank
4.68	10	4.21	19	4.32	9	4.09	21	3.4	28	38	20

ALY (Adjusted Line Yards): It is an alternate measure for yards per carry developed by Football Outsiders that takes into account various factors including down, distance, situation and opponent.
� [2007] Football Outsiders, Inc. All rights reserved.

Overview:
The Minnesota Vikings led the league in rushing yards with over 2,600 in 2007. Part of the credit does go to Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor but the offensive line opened up big holes for them and deserves some respect as well. The Vikings ranking slightly above league average in adjusted line yards even though they finished first by a mile in yards per carry which seems to indicate that the running backs had a lot to do with the success of the running game. If we look at Chester Taylor’s statistics, his yards per carry average improved from 4.0 to 5.4 last season. Furthermore, if we look at Taylor’s statistics in weeks 11 and 12 when Peterson was injured, he had 53 carries for 241 yards or 4.5 yards per carry. It is true Adrian Peterson is an exceptional talent but Chester Taylor was also an excellent back last season and a lot of the credit for this great running game goes to the offensive line.

At left tackle, the Vikings can count on their 2002 first round pick Bryant McKinnie. McKinnie is a freak of nature at 6’8” and 335lbs who possesses a very large wingspan and uses it to his advantage in pass blocking. He has decent technique and feet for a big guy that make him a good pass blocking left tackle but he will get beat to the outside too often by faster defensive linemen. McKinnie is a very good run blocker but he could be much better if he built up more strength and played with more intensity. He has potential to be a Pro Bowl level left tackle but he will need to improve his attitude and work ethic if he ever wants to reach that level. McKinnie was involved in an incident outside a Miami club in February and is facing four charges in court. As a repeat offender, it is very likely that he will be suspended by NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell for at least two to four games. At right tackle, Ryan Cook will be entering his third NFL season and is a favorite of coach Childress but he lacks strength and will be overpowered too often. Cook has the ability to play all positions on the line and would probably be a much better fit at center. He is probably the weak link on this line but he has good work ethic and has shown good improvement. Chase Johnson and Marcus Johnson provide depth at the tackle position. Chase Johnson is an undrafted free agent who will get his chance to battle for the left tackle position during McKinnie’s suspension but it is likely that he will simply provide depth on the line. Marcus Johnson on the other hand has the ability to be a starter as he showed in 2005 and 2006 but was never that impressive. He could battle Cook for the starting right tackle spot this year but the younger Cook will likely win the job because of his higher potential. Nonetheless, Marcus Johnson is a good backup tackle that can step in at the right guard or right tackle position if there is an injury.

At left guard, the Vikings can count one of the best in the NFL in Steve Hutchinson. Hutchinson has been named to five straight Pro Bowls and has not missed a single start in those five seasons. Hutchinson was signed away from the Seahawks in 2006 when the Vikings offered him a contract that contained a poison pill. The contract would have forced the Seahawks to guarantee the entire 49 million offered by the Vikings because he was not the highest paid lineman on the Seahawks. The Seahawks yards per carry average dropped from 4.7 in 2005 to 4.0 in 2006 after Hutchinson’s departure. Hutchinson is the complete package with size, strength, excellent work ethic and very good awareness. Those attributes make him arguably the best run blocking guard in the NFL and an excellent pass blocker as well. On the other side of the line, Anthony Herrera is a strong guard at 6’2” and 315lbs who showed very good improvement last season. Herrera is very aggressive in run blocking and has shown great work ethic but still has to improve his technique. He remains a below average guard but will likely improve over the next few seasons and become a decent starter. Artis Hicks is a good backup who started 14 games on the line in 2006. He is another hard worker who is pretty agile for his size and has the ability to play most positions on the line. He will likely get the chance to compete as a left tackle in camp to replace the likely to be suspended McKinnie at the beginning of the season.

At center, the Vikings have another excellent starter in Matt Birk. Birk is a very smart lineman with great technique and good strength for his size. He was rewarded for his excellent season in 2007 with a second straight Pro Bowl selection, his sixth in ten seasons in the NFL. The downside with Birk is that he will be 32 when the season begins but he seems to still have a few years left in him. The Vikings added John Sullivan in the sixth round to provide depth at the center position but he is unlikely to see much action even if Birk went down with an injury and is more of a long term project.

2008 Outlook:
The Vikings had one of the best run blocking offensive lines in 2007 mainly due to the three excellent players on the left side of the line. The problem is that with McKinnie likely to be suspended, Hutchinson will have to cover for the weaker left tackle and the left side is going to be much less effective than it was last season. This will also create inconsistency along the line for the first few games which is never a good thing for an offensive line. This line was very lucky in 2007 as the five starters played all 16 games and although Marcus Johnson and Artis Hicks provide good depth, the line would take a huge hit if Hutchinson or Birk were to get hurt. The positive side is that the younger linemen have had one more season to learn the zone blocking scheme and are likely to improve this year. Overall this line should still be excellent run blocking because of Hutchinson but it won’t be as good as last season because of McKinnie’s likely suspension and it will continue to struggle in pass protection because of the weak right side. One more thing to keep in mind is that the running game will take a big hit with Pro Bowl fullback Tony Richardson signing with the Jets and being replaced by an average starter in Thomas Tapeh. In two seasons with the Vikings, Richardson missed nine games and the team averaged 4.1 yards per carry in his absence as opposed to 5.0 when he was playing.