A Look Back At Our 2008 Top 10 Undervalued Players

In this article we are looking back at our top 10 undervalued players from 2008, and see how they performed last season compared to their average draft position. If a player finished above his ADP we will consider it a correct pick, if he finished below his ADP we will consider it an incorrect pick and we will void the pick if the player missed a significant portion of the season or finished right around his ADP.

#10 Torry Holt: Holt was one of the big disappointments of the 2008 season for us but it is very hard to regret selecting him in any of our leagues. Holt was selected 13th on average amongst WRs but finished the year well-below that. Holt had his lowest numbers for receptions, yards and touchdowns since his rookie year in 1999. Incorrect

#9 Willis McGahee: Willis McGahee was another very big disappointment this season. He had 24 receptions, a 3.9 yards per carry average and 7 touchdowns but the problem is he only had 170 carries compared to 294 last year. McGahee had some pretty good games but he had many bad ones where he barely carried the ball so overall it was a disappointing season for him. Incorrect

#8 Jerricho Cotchery / Laveranues Coles: Big things were expected from these two wide receivers with the addition of Brett Favre but they seemed to take a small step backwards. Coles finished as the 24th best WR while Cotchery finished as the 27th best, which is approximately where they were being drafted before the Favre trade. We were hoping slightly better from them but they finished right around their ADP (which was between 25 and 30 when we wrote the article last year) so we will void this pick. Void

#7 Maurice Jones-Drew: Despite all the injuries on the Jacksonville offensive line, Maurice Jones-Drew managed to average 4.2 yards per carry and to score 14 touchdowns. He finished the year as the third best RB in point per reception leagues despite carrying the ball only 197 times, not bad for a player who was getting drafted in the late first or early second round. We said Jones-Drew was a very good safe pick and he certainly did not disappoint. Correct

#6 David Garrard: Garrard finished four spots ahead of his average draft position which is pretty good but we were expecting slightly better. However, if you consider that two of his starting offensive linemen missed 15 games and that his center missed the first six games of the season, we can say that Garrard had a very successful season. Correct

#5 Owen Daniels: “He is currently being drafted as the 11th best tight end which means as long as his numbers decrease by less than 10% he will be a good pick. That is a little ridiculous if you consider that he is 25 years old and his projected numbers over 16 games with Schaub are 25% higher than his actual statistics from last season.“ In 2008, with Schaub at QB, Daniels had 4.9 receptions per game but only 3.1 with Rosenfels. Daniels still finished as the fifth best TE (sixth in non-PPR) despite Schaub missing four games and despite scoring only two touchdowns. Correct

#4 Aaron Rodgers: We had some pretty high hopes for Aaron Rodgers and had him ranked higher than most experts but he still surpassed our expectations. We said that because of his rushing, Rodgers’s passing numbers only had to be 70% of what Favre’s were in 2007 for him to finish above his ADP; it turns out they were 100%. Correct

#3 Tony Scheffler: We thought Scheffler was a potential top five tight end but his injuries once again hit him and prevented him from being as efficient as he can be. Despite playing only 13 games, Scheffler still finished as the 12th best TE, one spot better than his ADP.  He was pretty inconsistent however and we can’t say he had a successful season so we will void this pick. Void

#2 Marques Colston: With Drew Brees throwing for over 5,000 yards in 2008, Marques Colston should have had an exceptional season but instead he ranked 38th amongst wide receivers. Colston suffered a thumb injury in the first game of the year which took awhile to heel and prevented him from matching his numbers from his first two seasons. Colston had only 47 receptions in 11 games but 31 of those came in the final five and if you project his numbers from those final five games, only Andre Johnson was a better receiver in 2008. It was a disappointing season for Colston but had he not been hurt, he would have finished well-above his average draft position. Void

#1 Clinton Portis: We said the following about Portis at the beginning of the year:” In six seasons in the NFL, Portis has never had less than 250 points per 16 games in a point per reception league. Portis is not a spectacular pick but remember that since 2004, only 7 of the 28 running backs that were drafted between picks 6 and 12 finished the season in the top 12.” Portis was only the tenth best RB in 2008 with 252 fantasy points but of the running backs drafted between picks 6 and 12, only he and Maurice Jones-Drew remained in the top 12. Correct

Overall – 5 for 7: Many of the players in this top 10 could have had a much better year had they not suffered an injury or had their offensive line stayed healthy. However, of the seven players that did stay healthy, five of them played better than their average draft position. Overall, in our top 10 overvalued and undervalued we were 10 for 14 with 6 void picks because of injuries or other reasons, a very impressive record.