A Look Back At Our 2008
Breakout Wide Receivers
In this article we
are looking back at our
breakout wide receivers from 2008, and see how they performed
last season. According to our definition, a breakout wide receiver
is a receiver who has at least 150 fantasy points in point per
reception leagues and an increase of at least 40 points or 25% over
the previous year. We also do not include receivers that had less
than 300 receiving yards in our analysis.
Second year:
1993 to 2007:
Success rate: 17 of 33 – 51.5%
Dropped by 25%: 3 of 33 – 9.1%
Average improvement for all candidates: 54 points – 26.8%
2008 candidates (who reached 300 yards):
|
|
2007 Points |
2008 Points to Breakout |
Expected Points Based on ADP |
2008 Points |
Breakout? |
Beat ADP? |
|
Dwayne Bowe |
200 |
240 |
216 |
230 |
No |
Yes |
|
Calvin Johnson |
159 |
196 |
224 |
283 |
Yes |
Yes |
|
Anthony Gonzalez |
113 |
150 |
183 |
147 |
No |
No |
2008:
Success rate: 1 of 3 – 33.3%
Dropped by 25%: 0 of 3 – 0%
Average improvement for all candidates: 63 points – 39.8%
Third year:
1993 to 2007:
Success rate: 27 of 74 – 36.5%
Dropped by 25%: 16 of 74 – 21.6%
Average improvement for all candidates: 24 points – 18.0%
2008 candidates (who reached 300 yards):
|
|
2007 Points |
2008 Points to Breakout |
Expected Points Based on ADP |
2008 Points |
Breakout? |
Beat ADP? |
|
Santonio Holmes |
196 |
236 |
230 |
168 |
No |
No |
2008:
Success rate: 0 of 1 – 0%
Dropped by 25%: 0 of 1 – 0%
Average improvement for all candidates: -28 points – (14.3)%
Fourth year:
1993 to 2007:
Success rate: 13 of 32 – 40.6%
Dropped by 25%: 4 of 32 – 12.5%
Average improvement for candidates: 31 points – 22.9%
2008 candidates (who reached 300 yards):
|
|
2007 Points |
2008 Points to Breakout |
Expected Points Based on ADP |
2008 Points |
Breakout? |
Beat ADP? |
|
Mark Clayton |
101 |
150 |
143 |
143 |
No |
- |
|
Nate Washington |
104 |
150 |
50 |
123 |
No |
Yes |
|
Vincent Jackson |
121 |
151 |
150 |
218 |
Yes |
Yes |
2008:
Success rate: 1 of 3 – 33.3%
Dropped by 25%: 0 of 3 – 0%
Average improvement for all candidates: 53 points – 48.5%
Fifth year:
1993 to 2007:
Success rate: 15 of 43 – 34.9%
Dropped by 25%: 3 of 43 – 7.0%
Average improvement for candidates: 37 points – 31.0%
2008 candidates (who reached 300 yards):
|
|
2007 Points |
2008 Points to Breakout |
Expected Points Based on ADP |
2008 Points |
Breakout? |
Beat ADP? |
|
Devery Henderson |
79 |
150 |
75 |
133 |
No |
Yes |
|
Lee Evans |
170 |
210 |
214 |
185 |
No |
No |
|
Michael Clayton |
52 |
150 |
75 |
93 |
No |
Yes |
|
Michael Jenkins |
130 |
163 |
92 |
146 |
No |
Yes |
|
Roy Williams |
177 |
217 |
233 |
91 |
No |
No |
2008:
Success rate: 0 of 5 – 0%
Dropped by 25%: 1 of 5 – 20%
Average improvement for all candidates: 8 points – 6.6%
Overall
Success rate: 2 of 12 – 16.7%
Dropped by 25%: 1 of 12 – 8.3%
Average improvement for candidates: 30 points – 22.3%
May 20, 2008 |