A Look Back At Our 2008 Breakout Running Backs

In this article we are looking back at our breakout running backs from 2008, and see how they performed last season. According to our definition, a breakout running back is one who has at least 150 fantasy points in point per reception leagues and an increase of at least 40 points or 25% over the previous year. We also do not include backs that had less than 250 rushing yards in our analysis.

Second year:

1993 to 2007:
Success rate: 19 of 54 – 35.2%
Dropped by 25%: 8 of 54 – 14.8%
Average improvement for all candidates: 33 points – 23.7%

2008 candidates (who reached 300 yards):

None

Third year:

1993 to 2007:
Success rate: 16 of 33 – 48.5%
Dropped by 25%: 2 of 33 – 6.1%
Average improvement for all candidates: 64 points – 56.6%

2008 candidates (who reached 300 yards):

2008:
Success rate: 4 of 4 – 100%
Dropped by 25%: 0 of 4 – 0%
Average improvement for all candidates: 80 points – 53.5%

Fourth year:

1993 to 2007:
Success rate: 17 of 75 – 22.7%
Dropped by 25%: 16 of 75 – 21.3%
Average improvement for candidates: 13 points – 9.1%

2008 candidates (who reached 300 yards):

2008:
Success rate: 1 of 3 – 33.3%
Dropped by 25%: 0 of 3 – 0%
Average improvement for all candidates: 21 points – 10.5%

Fifth year:

1993 to 2007:
Success rate: 10 of 29 – 34.5%
Dropped by 25%: 4 of 29 – 13.8%
Average improvement for candidates: 36 points – 22.3%

2008 candidates (who reached 300 yards):

2008:
Success rate: 0 of 3 – 0%
Dropped by 25%: 2 of 3 – 66.6%
Average improvement for all candidates: -42 points – (20.4%)

Overall

Success rate: 5 of 10 – 50%
Dropped by 25%: 2 of 10 – 20%
Average improvement for candidates: 26 points – 14.2%

May 21, 2008