Newsletter

Top 10 - Overvalued Players

#10 Cedric Benson:  We were big fans of Cedric Benson last year in his second season with the Bengals but a lot of things have changed this year. Benson finished the 2009 season as the 20^th best RB in PPR leagues and would have been a top 10 RB if he had stayed healthy. It’s true that Benson played only 13 games and was a top 20 RB but in those 13 games, he had 301 carries.  Can we really expect that number to increase with the impressive Bernard Scott as his backup, the addition of Terrell Owens at WR and Benson’s inability to stay healthy throughout his career? Benson will probably have a few more receptions and touchdowns than last year but he won’t have nearly as many carries per game and is very unlikely to live up to his average draft position of 13.

#9 Dez Bryant: He hasn’t caught a single pass in the NFL yet but we’ve heard about him all summer.  We don’t question Bryant’s abilities but to live up to his average draft position, he would need to catch about 55 to 60 passes. Well let’s say Romo completes about 350 passes like last year. Witten should get at least 90, as he has in two of the past three years (the reason he had only 81 in 2008 is the injury to Romo), and Austin should get about 90 as well considering he had 87 in his last 12 regular season games and 2 playoff games. The RBs should catch at least 60 passes and the backup TE’s at least 15 as they’ve both done in the last three years. That leaves 95 receptions for Bryant, Williams, Crayton, Ogletree and Hurd. We’d be surprised if any WR caught more than half of those so the only way for Bryant to live up to his average draft position is to cut into Austin or Witten’s receptions, seems very unlikely.

#8 Pierre Garcon: Pierre Garcon is in the same situation as Dez Bryant. We did the same breakdown as we did for Bryant in our forums and there are at most 110 receptions to split between Pierre Garcon, Austin Collie and Anthony Gonzalez. Is it really possible that Garcon will catch 65 to 70 passes and finish as a top 25 WR when he had 54 receptions to Collie’s 47 in their final 12 games?  It’s true that Garcon had 21 catches in the three playoff games but Manning had 87 completions in those three games and we can guarantee you that he won’t complete over 450 passes in 2010. 65 receptions would be within reach for Garcon if Gonzalez wasn’t on the roster but you can’t forget about a player who caught 57 passes two years ago.

#7 DeAngelo Williams: There is no doubt that DeAngelo Williams is an extremely talented running back. He is one of only three running backs who averaged 5.0 yards per carry and above in three consecutive seasons where he had over 100 carries. The problem for him is that he has Jonathan Stewart on his team who is stealing a lot of carries and who started getting goal line touches last season. In the first 11 games last year, before Williams started dealing with an injury, Williams had 62% of the carries and only 7 of the 13 touchdowns. We’re aware that his numbers from those first 11 games would have made him the 6^th best RB last year but two things will change this year. First, since Stewart played very well in those final three games, his role will likely increase this season. Second, the Panthers had 85 more carries and 5 more rushing TDs than the league average in 2009 and it wouldn’t be surprising to see both of those numbers drop in 2010. If one of those happens, DeAngelo Williams probably won’t be a top 10 running back in 2010.

#6 Philip Rivers: Rivers is ranked pretty much where he finished last season but a number of things have changed since then. First, the Chargers drafted Ryan Mathews with the intention of running the football more in 2010. We wouldn’t have made much of this in normal circumstances but the Chargers are also in real danger of playing the 2010 season without their star left tackle Marcus McNeill and their top WR Vincent Jackson. If both of these players choose to sit out, not only will Rivers be much less effective (especially without McNeill) but he will also get fewer opportunities because the Chargers will run more than last year when they had those two guys. These are two big question marks that you don’t want to have with your starting quarterback, especially one that is being drafted as the 7^th best.