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In order to test this, I used statistics from the 2009 season and created two teams of nine players (one QB, two RBs, three WRs, one TE, one K and one D). Both teams had the exact same total number of points from week one to week sixteen but one team was very consistent while the other was very inconsistent from week to week. The first team had an average coefficient of variation of 0.41 while the other team’s average coefficient was 0.69. Afterwards, I used a function which randomly selected a point total for each player from the fifteen possible (week one to week sixteen minus bye week). For example I may be using player A’s week six performance, player B’s week three performance, player C’s week nine performance and so on for all nine players on the team. I did that for both teams and matched up the two teams against each other 500,000 times using different combinations. Here is a summary of the results:

(CV for an average fantasy team is about 0.56)

As you can see the more consistent team wins more often but it only has a 51.25% win percentage versus 48.69% while tied games were 0.06%. To put this in perspective, I created two more fictional teams that both have the same consistency but every player on one team averaged 0.2 points per week less than the other (3 points per player so 27 points less for the entire team). The team that averaged only 3 points per player more won 52.36% of the time.

This study shows that you are much better off focusing on drafting better players than drafting consistent players as it barely has any impact on your fantasy team’s overall performance. This does not even account for the fact that it is quite difficult to predict a player’s consistency from year to year. If we assume that: you can predict how consistent a player will be from week to week and you can draft the most consistent players on your team, your advantage will be less than a point per week for your entire team.

There is no statistical evidence that shows you should stay away from Terrell Owens or Randy Moss because they are inconsistent players. Although in theory a more consistent player should help your fantasy team win more games, with nine players on your team there are always some that will have good weeks and bad weeks so it neglects the effect of a single player’s inconsistency. Moreover, there are no NFL players that are consistent or inconsistent enough from week to week for this theory to have a real impact.

In conclusion, if another manager in your league says he is staying away from Ryan Grant because he has a low “Crank Score”, give him a fake smile and be very happy to draft him (if he’s the best player available of course).

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