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Top Quarterback or Quarterback Tandem - Summary

Draft Recommendation: Drafting two quarterbacks between the seventh and tenth round proves to be a much better strategy than drafting one of the top quarterbacks.

One of the questions that many fantasy football players ask themselves is when to draft their starting quarterback. Many sites suggest waiting before drafting your starting QB because there is generally good value in later rounds. In our Average Draft Position Analysis Article we came to the conclusion that the two groups that have value at QB are the top four and the 11 to 18 group. However, the problem with the 11 to 18 range is that there are some risky picks in that group so this made us think: what if we selected two QBs in that 11 to 18 range to increase our chances of finding a big sleeper and reduce the risk of being left without a starter? In the following article, we will compare the strategy of drafting a top QB with a below average backup to the strategy of drafting two QBs in the 11 to 18 range.

Based on our analysis, a top QB and a below average backup will earn on average 19 more points than two QBs in the 11 to 18 range. However, those calculations assume that between your starter and your backup you will have started the QB who will have the most points at the end of the season in all weeks. There is however one additional advantage of having two good QBs which is that you can adjust for matchups and start the one which you believe has the most favorable matchup every week.

We decided to look at weekly statistics from the last five years to see which strategy would have been better if you started your QB with the most points every single week. That advantage drops from 19 points to only 11 points. If you pick the best starter in most weeks (but not all) we estimate that advantage to be about 13 points.

It is still early but at this point, the QBs in the 11 to 18 range are Joe Flacco, Eli Manning, Brett Favre, Donovan McNabb, Carson Palmer, Ben Roethlisberger, Matthew Stafford and Chad Henne. As shown in this article, you can expect to earn about 13 fewer points from a QB duo composed of two of those QBs than you would with Rodgers, Brees, Manning or Brady and a weaker backup. That difference might increase to about 15 points if you earn six points per TD pass but it’s still a small one. The difference however is that you might spend a seventh round pick on Flacco and a ninth round pick on McNabb as opposed to a second or third round pick on Rodgers, Brees or Manning. You could select a WR like Roddy White or Sidney Rice in the second or third round instead of a top QB and you would be at a slight disadvantage at the QB position but would gain a large advantage at the WR position. Using averages from our Average Draft Position Analysis Article, the difference between an early 3rd and a 12th round pick vs a 7th and a 9th round pick is about 20 points at RB and 40 at WR in a non-PPR league and 30 at RB and 55 at WR in a PPR league. As you can see, you are much better off drafting your RBs and WRs earlier and waiting on your QBs.

A final advantage that you can gain from picking your QBs later is that you have a lot more options. Most websites have the top QBs ranked in the same order and if, like in 2008, Brady is injured and Manning does not have his best season, you could be in trouble. We believe it is much easier to find sleepers at the QB position than at the RB or WR position. Players like Joe Flacco, Eli Manning, Carson Palmer and even David Garrard, who is getting drafted much later, are all players with very safe jobs and who are pretty much guaranteed to finish in the top 20. However, if a couple of things go their way in 2010, they could finish in the top ten like Schaub, Roethlisberger, Manning and Favre did last year.

See the complete analysis