Newsletter

Top Quarterback or Quarterback Tandem
(page 2)

We decided to look at weekly statistics from the last five years to see which strategy would have been better if you started your QB with the most points every week. Since there are injuries, we also included an average QB you could have gotten off waivers and who played at least 14 games. For example, for 2009 we used Mark Sanchez and this makes sure the average for a top QB does not drop significantly because of a serious injury, Tom Brady in 2008 for example. Here is a table which shows the total number of points you would have gotten from your QBs using both strategies:

As you can see, using this technique, the advantage for the top QB drops to only 11 points. We thought the difference would be smaller but in this analysis, we also took out week 17 which probably gave back part of that advantage to the top 4 QBs. The difference of 19 points we had found earlier probably would have been bigger had we only looked at statistics from weeks 1 to 16.

Some might argue that it is pretty unrealistic to assume you would be able to pick the best QB every single week and they would have a point. However, we said previously that the difference was 16 points between the two strategies and now it is only 9 points; even if you don’t pick the best one every single week, that difference would still drop from 16 to about 13. The reason it is an advantage to have two QBs of similar talent is that you have a capable backup who can play when your starter faces a tough passing defense. When you have a top starter and a below average backup you will usually play your starter almost every week unless the matchup is very unfavorable.

It is still early but at this point, the QBs in the 11 to 18 range are Joe Flacco, Eli Manning, Brett Favre, Donovan McNabb, Carson Palmer, Ben Roethlisberger, Matthew Stafford and Chad Henne. As shown in this article, you can expect to earn about 13 fewer points from a QB duo composed of two of those QBs than you would with Rodgers, Brees, Manning or Brady and a weaker backup. That difference might increase to about 15 points if you earn six points per TD pass but it’s still a small one. The difference however is that you might spend a seventh round pick on Flacco and a ninth round pick on McNabb as opposed to a second or third round pick on Rodgers, Brees or Manning. You could select a WR like Roddy White or Sidney Rice in the second or third round instead of a top QB and you would be at a slight disadvantage at the QB position but would gain a large advantage at the WR position. Using averages from our Average Draft Position Analysis Article, the difference between an early 3^rd and a 12^th round pick vs a 7^th and a 9^th round pick is about 20 points at RB and 40 at WR in a non-PPR league and 30 at RB and 55 at WR in a PPR league. As you can see, you are much better off drafting your RBs and WRs earlier and waiting on your QBs.

For those who are involved in auctions, the advantage of this strategy is even easier to demonstrate. Using suggested auction prices from Ask The Commish which you can find here, the top QBs are worth between $21 and $18 while QBs in the 11 to 18 range are worth between $4 and $8. Include a backup QB at $1 and the top QB strategy will cost you about $20 on average while the QB tandem will cost you only $12 out of your $100 budget. That is 8% of your budget that you are spending on a top QB to earn less than one point per week on average.

A final advantage that you can gain from picking your QBs later is that you have a lot more options. Most websites have the top QBs ranked in the same order and if, like in 2008, Brady is injured and Manning does not have his best season, you could be in trouble. We believe it is much easier to find sleepers at the QB position than at the RB or WR position. Players like Joe Flacco, Eli Manning, Carson Palmer and even David Garrard, who is getting drafted much later, are all players with very safe jobs and who are pretty much guaranteed to finish in the top 20. However, if a couple of things go their way in 2010, they could finish in the top ten like Schaub, Roethlisberger, Manning and Favre did last year.
 

Previous Page