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Strength of Schedule - Summary

Draft Recommendation: Defenses are so unpredictable that 2010 strength of schedule has very little meaning and you are much better off looking at which player had inflated or deflated stats in 2009 because of an easier or harder schedule.

Strength of schedule is one of the many factors that fantasy football players often include in their player rankings to try and get an edge over their opponents. One of the problems with it however is that there is so much parity in the NFL that a bad run defense can become one of the best ones in the following year.

The goal was to determine how much a team’s statistics from a given season impact that team’s statistics for the next season. Our analysis shows us that it is very difficult to predict how defenses will perform in the upcoming season and only 20% to 35% (depending on the position) of the previous year’s statistics help us predict next year’s statistics. For those who doubt this, here is an interesting statistic: four of the top ten defenses against QBs in 2009 had finished in the bottom half in 2008.

Based on those statistics, the difference is less than 5% between the teams with the easiest schedules and the teams with the hardest schedules. For example the San Francisco 49ers have the second easiest schedule for running backs but we can expect the defenses they will face to allow only 2.2% more fantasy points to running backs than the league average. This means that if you project Frank Gore to have 310 fantasy points, his easier 2010 schedule would mean you can expect him to have 317 fantasy points. As you can see, it makes absolutely no sense to look at strength of schedule for 2010 based on last year’s defensive statistics as the difference is minimal. Some sites do adjust strength of schedule based on off-season changes but can they really increase the percentage that much? Personally I have big doubts about this and it may be worth using as a tiebreaking method between a few players but no more than that.

There is one factor that I haven’t seen mention on any website but which is much more important: last year’s strength of schedule. To go back to our example of Frank Gore, instead of giving him a boost because his opponents in 2010 were below average in run defense in 2009, would it not make more sense to look at the opponents he faced in 2009 and see if his stats were inflated because of an easier schedule?

The difference is quite remarkable between the teams with the easiest schedules and the teams with the hardest schedules. Aaron Rodgers for example had 395 fantasy points but he faced defenses that allow 7.0% more points than the league average. On the other hand, Tom Brady had 329 fantasy points but he faced defenses that allow 8.2% less than the league average. Had they faced the same opponents, Rodgers and Brady probably would have ended the season within 20 fantasy points of each other and not 66.

Our numbers show much easier or harder a team’s strength of schedule is compared to the year before but by giving much more importance to the 2009 strength of schedule since we don’t know which defenses will be good or bad in 2010. Here is our 2010 strength of schedule chart by position.

Many sites including FFToolbox publish a strength of schedule chart by position. They say it is an “important arsenal of serious fantasy football drafters” and that “you’ll be able to make the hard decisions between two players.” If you look at their chart, you’ll see that the New England Patriots have the sixth toughest schedule for quarterbacks which might keep you away from Tom Brady. However, if you look at our chart, you’ll see that last year, he also had one of the toughest schedules against the pass and he still performed very well. It is a fact that last year he had a tough schedule, this year no one knows how tough his schedule will be and it is very likely to be easier than the sixth toughest. Based on historical projections, his schedule should be 7.7% easier this season than last season; a valid reason to move Brady up in your rankings, not stay away from him as you might have done by looking at a regular strength of schedule chart.

One more thing that many fantasy football players do is look at match-ups when choosing their backup quarterback. For example, if you select Aaron Rodgers as your starter, you’ll look for a backup QB who faces a weak opponent in week 10. For example, Trent Edwards facing the Lions or Alex Smith facing the Rams would probably be good picks. However, the odds of your starter getting hurt or having a difficult season are much greater than the odds of your backup with a “projected easy opponent” actually helping you. Because of that, we strongly recommend to simply draft the best player available in your opinion.

The chart above will allow you to adjust player statistics and compare players much more accurately and should give you an edge over other fantasy football players in your draft, especially those who give a lot of importance to 2010 strength of schedule.

See the complete analysis