Strength of Schedule
(page 3)
Here is our 2010 strength of
schedule chart by position (higher number means a favorable
schedule):
|
QB |
RB |
WR |
|
|
2009 |
2010 |
Diff |
|
2009 |
2010 |
Diff |
|
2009 |
2010 |
Diff |
|
MIA |
0.912 |
0.989 |
1.085 |
DET |
0.945 |
0.982 |
1.039 |
OAK |
0.942 |
1.010 |
1.072 |
|
NE |
0.918 |
0.988 |
1.077 |
CAR |
0.969 |
1.006 |
1.038 |
KC |
0.948 |
1.001 |
1.056 |
|
ATL |
0.938 |
0.996 |
1.063 |
KC |
0.990 |
1.024 |
1.035 |
ATL |
0.953 |
0.999 |
1.048 |
|
TB |
0.953 |
1.001 |
1.050 |
OAK |
0.977 |
1.007 |
1.031 |
NO |
0.952 |
0.996 |
1.046 |
|
OAK |
0.955 |
1.003 |
1.050 |
CLE |
0.955 |
0.983 |
1.030 |
TB |
0.956 |
0.998 |
1.045 |
|
KC |
0.958 |
0.996 |
1.040 |
TB |
0.978 |
1.007 |
1.029 |
NE |
0.944 |
0.986 |
1.044 |
|
NYG |
0.975 |
1.008 |
1.034 |
CIN |
0.973 |
0.995 |
1.022 |
NYG |
0.972 |
1.010 |
1.040 |
|
BUF |
0.980 |
1.007 |
1.028 |
CHI |
0.968 |
0.989 |
1.021 |
DAL |
0.979 |
1.013 |
1.035 |
|
NYJ |
0.976 |
1.002 |
1.027 |
DEN |
0.999 |
1.016 |
1.017 |
SD |
0.976 |
1.009 |
1.034 |
|
PHI |
0.988 |
1.013 |
1.025 |
STL |
1.009 |
1.021 |
1.012 |
PHI |
0.981 |
1.011 |
1.031 |
|
TEN |
0.979 |
1.003 |
1.024 |
SD |
1.010 |
1.021 |
1.011 |
CAR |
0.975 |
1.005 |
1.030 |
|
CAR |
0.981 |
1.004 |
1.023 |
TEN |
0.983 |
0.991 |
1.008 |
WAS |
0.985 |
1.011 |
1.027 |
|
DAL |
0.997 |
1.011 |
1.014 |
NYG |
0.986 |
0.992 |
1.006 |
MIA |
0.967 |
0.988 |
1.022 |
|
NO |
0.992 |
1.000 |
1.008 |
SEA |
1.013 |
1.018 |
1.005 |
DEN |
0.984 |
1.006 |
1.022 |
|
IND |
0.994 |
1.002 |
1.008 |
MIA |
0.993 |
0.995 |
1.002 |
CIN |
0.969 |
0.990 |
1.022 |
|
DEN |
0.996 |
0.999 |
1.003 |
ATL |
0.999 |
1.001 |
1.002 |
BUF |
0.986 |
1.002 |
1.016 |
|
CLE |
0.987 |
0.988 |
1.001 |
IND |
0.996 |
0.996 |
1.000 |
NYJ |
0.993 |
0.997 |
1.003 |
|
CIN |
0.990 |
0.990 |
1.000 |
BAL |
1.000 |
0.999 |
0.999 |
PIT |
0.984 |
0.986 |
1.002 |
|
JAC |
1.000 |
0.999 |
0.999 |
SF |
1.027 |
1.022 |
0.996 |
CLE |
0.994 |
0.990 |
0.996 |
|
SD |
1.004 |
1.002 |
0.998 |
NE |
1.000 |
0.990 |
0.990 |
BAL |
0.998 |
0.985 |
0.987 |
|
HOU |
1.003 |
0.997 |
0.994 |
GB |
1.001 |
0.990 |
0.989 |
TEN |
1.029 |
1.004 |
0.976 |
|
WAS |
1.025 |
1.014 |
0.990 |
PIT |
1.010 |
0.998 |
0.989 |
IND |
1.029 |
1.004 |
0.976 |
|
DET |
1.017 |
1.000 |
0.983 |
ARI |
1.039 |
1.020 |
0.982 |
JAC |
1.027 |
1.001 |
0.975 |
|
BAL |
1.017 |
0.989 |
0.973 |
BUF |
0.995 |
0.977 |
0.981 |
DET |
1.020 |
0.994 |
0.975 |
|
PIT |
1.030 |
0.989 |
0.960 |
DAL |
1.013 |
0.993 |
0.980 |
CHI |
1.023 |
0.998 |
0.975 |
|
STL |
1.042 |
0.998 |
0.959 |
NO |
1.014 |
0.994 |
0.980 |
MIN |
1.027 |
0.998 |
0.972 |
|
SEA |
1.056 |
0.999 |
0.946 |
PHI |
1.010 |
0.990 |
0.980 |
HOU |
1.051 |
1.004 |
0.956 |
|
MIN |
1.058 |
1.000 |
0.946 |
HOU |
1.020 |
0.998 |
0.978 |
GB |
1.046 |
0.999 |
0.955 |
|
CHI |
1.064 |
1.003 |
0.942 |
MIN |
1.011 |
0.987 |
0.977 |
SEA |
1.064 |
0.999 |
0.939 |
|
ARI |
1.062 |
1.000 |
0.942 |
JAC |
1.056 |
1.020 |
0.966 |
ARI |
1.071 |
1.003 |
0.936 |
|
GB |
1.070 |
1.007 |
0.941 |
NYJ |
1.025 |
0.984 |
0.960 |
SF |
1.087 |
1.002 |
0.921 |
|
SF |
1.085 |
1.001 |
0.922 |
WAS |
1.036 |
0.994 |
0.960 |
STL |
1.088 |
1.002 |
0.921 |
Many sites including
FFToolbox publish a
strength of schedule chart by position. They say it is an
“important arsenal of serious fantasy football drafters” and that
“you’ll be able to make the hard decisions between two players.” If
you look at their chart, you’ll see that the New England Patriots
have the sixth toughest schedule for quarterbacks which might keep
you away from Tom Brady. However, if you look at our chart, you’ll
see that last year, he also had one of the toughest schedules
against the pass and he still performed very well. It is a fact that
last year he had a tough schedule, this year no one knows how tough
his schedule will be and it is very likely to be easier than the
sixth toughest. Based on historical projections, his schedule should
be 7.7% easier this season than last season; a valid reason to move
Brady up in your rankings, not stay away from him as you might have
done by looking at a regular strength of schedule chart.
One more thing that many
fantasy football players do is look at match-ups when choosing their
backup quarterback. For example, if you select Aaron Rodgers as your
starter, you’ll look for a backup QB who faces a weak opponent in
week 10. For example, Trent Edwards facing the Lions or Alex Smith
facing the Rams would probably be good picks. However, how do you
know that the Lions and Rams will still be poor against the pass?
Fine, the Lions may be an exception because they’ve always been
awful but the Rams were around the league average in the past few
years. In nine weeks, every defense will have to face a number of
injuries and if one of these two defenses can stay healthier, it
might make them below average match-ups in week 10. Furthermore,
four of the opening day starters in 2009 were either hurt by week 10
or had lost their starting job so a QB you pick-up on waivers might
be your starter for week 10. Finally, a player with the easiest
opponent in any given week will have only about a 4 pts edge over a
player facing an average opponent. The odds of your starter getting
hurt or having a difficult season are much greater than the odds of
your backup with a “projected easy opponent” actually helping you.
Because of that, we strongly recommend to simply draft the best
player available in your opinion.
The chart above will allow
you to adjust player statistics and compare players much more
accurately and should give you an edge over other fantasy football
players in your draft, especially those who give a lot of importance
to 2010 strength of schedule.
|
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