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Rookie Wide Receivers
(page 2)

Another interesting thing I noticed by looking at rookie wide receivers is that wide receivers drafted early in the NFL Draft performed worse compared to their average draft position than ones drafted later. Since 2000, there have been 17 wide receivers drafted in the first 12 picks of the first round and only two of them performed better than their average draft position in fantasy drafts. The following table compares rookie wide receivers drafted in the first 12 picks of the NFL Draft with non-rookie wide receivers who ranked between 21st and 60th in average draft position:

Even though the sample for rookies is quite small, there is an obvious difference between these two groups of players. This seems to indicate that rookie wide receivers drafted in the first 12 picks of the NFL Draft are generally very overrated by fantasy managers. My explanation for this would be that wide receiver is a very complicated position and those who adjust the quickest to the NFL game are not necessarily the most talented. Moreover, the statistics of a wide receiver often depend on the team they play for. Wide receivers drafted in the top 12 picks are usually on bad teams which is something that fantasy managers may not take into account as much as they should. In the past few years, Calvin Johnson, Braylon Edwards, Reggie Williams, Troy Williamson, Ted Ginn, Darrius Heyward-Bey and Mike Williams are all receivers who disappointed in their rookie season.

Now that I have shown that rookie wide receivers drafted in the top 12 picks are overvalued, let’s see how the statistics change for the group of wide receivers that were not drafted in the top 12. The following table compares the rookie wide receivers not drafted in the first 12 picks of the NFL Draft with non-rookie wide receivers that ranked between 50th and 85th in average draft position:

As you can see, this data is in favor of rookie wide receivers but the difference is only 2.9%. The edge for rookie wide receivers also increases slightly if we look at the ones drafted between the 13th pick and the end of the second round. This is especially interesting if we consider that 7 of the 11 WRs drafted in that range in the past two years performed better than their average draft position and three of them finished in the top 30.

The data presented in this article makes it quite evident that you should stay away from rookie wide receivers drafted in the top 12 picks but you won’t have to worry about this in 2010. Dez Bryant, Demaryius Thomas, Arrelious Benn and Golden Tate are all rookie wide receivers that are worth considering as they were drafted in the late first round or the second round. However, you should also keep in mind that none of the six receivers with an ADP in the top 35 performed better than their ADP so you will probably want to stay away from Dez Bryant. We have to admit that in past years we haven’t been very big on rookies but based on this data, Thomas, Benn and Tate could be good picks in 2010.

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