Rookie Running Backs
(page 2)
Another interesting thing I
noticed by looking at rookie running backs is that the higher they
were drafted in the NFL Draft, the better they perform compared to
their average draft position. Since 2000, there have been 12 running
backs drafted in the first 12 picks of the first round and 6 of them
performed better than their average draft position in fantasy
drafts. The following table compares rookie running backs drafted in
the first 12 picks in the NFL Draft with non-rookie running backs
who ranked between 14th and 29th in average draft position:
|
|
Average Draft
Position |
Average Rank |
% Improve |
|
Rookies (top 12 in NFL Draft) |
21.1 |
27.8 |
50.0% |
|
Non-Rookies (14 to 29) |
21.2 |
32.3 |
38.6% |
Even though the sample for
rookies is quite small there is an obvious difference between this
data and the one presented earlier. This seems to indicate that
rookie running backs drafted in the first 12 picks of the NFL Draft
are generally underrated by fantasy managers.
Now that I have shown that
rookie running backs drafted in the top 12 picks are undervalued,
let’s see how the statistics change for the group of running backs
that were not drafted in the top 12. The following table compares
the rookie running backs not drafted in the first 12 picks of the
NFL Draft with non-rookie running backs that ranked between 21st and
68th in average draft position:
|
|
Average Draft
Position |
Average Rank |
% Improve |
|
Rookies (non top 12 in NFL Draft) |
44.5 |
57.9 |
29.0% |
|
Non-Rookies (21 to 68) |
44.5 |
53.7 |
43.3% |
As you can see, this data is
completely opposite to the one presented in the previous section.
Your chances of making a good pick with a rookie running back are
14.3% lower than they are with a non-rookie running back.
The data presented in this
article makes it quite evident that the only rookie running backs
that might be worth drafting in your fantasy drafts are ones drafted
in the first 12 picks of the NFL Draft. In 2010, C.J. Spiller and
Ryan Mathews are the only running backs who were drafted in the
first 12 picks. The problem with Mathews is that he’s currently
being drafted as the 11th best RB and no rookie RB has
ever been drafted this early. Spiller, on the other hand, is being
drafted around number 30 and could be worth selecting based on this
data.
The four other rookie
running backs that you might consider this year are: Jahvid Best,
Montario Hardesty, Ben Tate and Toby Gerhart. They are four players
that we highly recommend to stay away from unless you can get them
about 20 picks after their average draft position.
|
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