2010 Breakout Wide Receivers
(page 2)
Second year WRs:
As shown in the first part
of this article, although second year wide receivers are not as
hyped as third year wide receivers on fantasy draft day, they do
have a better chance of having a breakout season. To increase the
36.8% chance from the first part of the article, I added two more
criteria which are the following:
-less than 7 TDs (instead of 9)
-less than 0.12 TD per reception
Those two criteria eliminate
20 players of the 87 while only losing 3 breakout candidates and
they make the percentage jump from 36.8% to 43.3%. It is also
interesting to note that only 3 of the 62 wide receivers had their
performance decrease by 25% or more compared to the 29 that improved
by 25% or more so drafting players that meet these criteria is a low
risk and high reward strategy.
Unbelievably, there are 12
wide receivers that meet those requirements for the 2010 season and
they are: Brandon Gibson, Brian Hartline, Jeremy Maclin, Johnny
Knox, Julian Edelman, Kenny Britt, Louis Murphy, Michael Crabtree,
Mike Thomas, Mohamed Massaquoi, Percy Harvin and Sammie Stroughter.
Based on past statistics
four or five of these should improve their performance by at least
25% and reach at least 150 fantasy points. At this point in the
off-season it is too early to tell which of these, if any, have a
favorable situation for next season but they are 12 players to keep
in mind for your drafts.
Third year WRs:
Third year wide receivers
are in demand on draft day and although there are many of them that
breakout, many of them do not and it is difficult to predict which
ones will. In order to increase the 29.9% chance from the first part
of the article, I added two more criteria:
-less than 17 YPC
-less than 0.15 TD per reception
These two criteria will
eliminate the players that performed well the previous year because
of catching a few long balls and will also eliminate those that had
few receptions but a lot of touchdowns. This now leaves us with 30
out of 88 receivers that breakout in their third year for a 34.1%
success rate. Unfortunately it was not as easy as for second year
wide receivers to improve the breakout percentage but 34.1% is still
pretty good. Out of the 88 wide receivers remaining, there are 30
that increased by 25% or more but still 14 that saw their production
drop by 25% or more. This is still pretty good and does show that
some third year wide receivers could be worth drafting early and
have breakout seasons but there is still a pretty high risk in
drafting them.
In 2010 the third year
receivers that respect the criteria are: Andre Caldwell, Danny
Amendola, Devin Thomas, Donnie Avery, Earl Bennett, Eddie Royal,
Jordy Nelson, Josh Morgan, Malcolm Kelly, Mario Manningham and
Pierre Garcon.
Fourth year WRs:
Fourth year receivers are
generally not thought of as great breakout candidates but there are
a surprising number that excel, the latest example is Devin Hester
who had a very good season in 2009. We were unfortunately only able
to find one criterion that improved our success rate for these
receivers:
-less than 15 YPC
31 of the 82 fourth year
receivers that respected these criteria had a breakout season for
37.8%. For the 2010 season, there are six candidates who are fourth
year wide receivers: Calvin Johnson, Dwayne Bowe, James Jones, Mike
Sims-Walker, Steve Breaston and Ted Ginn. Ted Ginn probably won’t
reach the 300 yards minimum but we expect two of the other five to
breakout so make sure you keep their names in mind on draft day.
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