Newsletter

2010 Breakout Running Backs - Summary

Draft Recommendation: Running backs who have between two and five years of experience in the NFL and a high yards per carry average but few carries or touchdowns are usually the best breakout candidates.

Every year there are running backs that come out of nowhere and are amongst the best fantasy performers. Although the performance of the offensive line has a big impact on a running back’s statistics, I believe there are still certain statistical criteria that can increase the chances of finding a breakout running back. Over the past two years I have developed a set of criteria that help us find those breakout running backs and the success rate has been excellent. Over the past two years, 14 of our 19 predicted breakout running backs have beaten their average draft position and the average improvement of all our candidates was 45 points.

First of all I just want to clarify that I am using the term breakout a little loosely and I still include RBs who might have had a strong rookie season, struggled in their second season and had a solid third season. The two criteria that a running back had to respect to be considered a breakout running back are: 

-At least 150 points in a point per reception scoring system
-An increase of at least 40 points per 16 games or a 25% increase in points per 16 games.

I used different criteria depending on the years of experience of the running backs but in general, running backs that had a higher yards per carry average but fewer carries and fewer touchdowns are more likely to breakout.

Here are the candidates for 2010 along with their percentage chance to breakout, assuming they play at least ten games and rush for 250 yards:

Second year – 45.7%: Arian Foster, Bernard Scott, LeSean McCoy and Shonn Greene.

Third year – 57.1%: Felix Jones, Jamaal Charles, Justin Forsett, Tashard Choice and Tim Hightower.

Fourth year – 31.3%: Fred Jackson, Marshawn Lynch and Michael Bush.

Fifth year – 36.4%: DeAngelo Williams, Jerious Norwood, Leon Washington and Mike Bell.

It is unfortunately not enough to know which players might break out and, although amongst the 16 players I mentioned there are probably six or so that will have very good seasons, there are other factors you will want to consider. The most important of those factors is where you expect these players to be drafted. Knowing that about six of these guys will breakout is a nice start but it is also important to know which running backs the average manager expects to improve in order to find value in the draft and avoid overpayments. It is also important to analyze the situation for each of those 16 running backs individually in order to increase our chances of finding the ones that will breakout. You will be able to find both of the above within the next few weeks on this website in part two of our breakout running backs article.

See the complete analysis