Newsletter

Breakout Running Backs - Part Two

Earlier this summer we published a statistical analysis to help us find running backs that may have breakout seasons in 2010. The definition of a breakout running back in that article is: at least 150 points in a point per reception scoring system and an increase of at least 40 points or 25%. In this article, we will look in detail at the running backs that respect our criteria to try and determine which of our 2010 breakout candidates are the best picks this year.

Second year:
Success rate: 16 of 35 – 45.7%
Dropped by 25%: 1 of 35 – 2.9%
Average improvement for all candidates: 60 points – 50.4%
Average improvement for breakout RBs: 130 points – 109.6%

2010 candidates:

Second year running backs are usually pretty good breakout candidates and this year, four running backs respect our criteria. All four of them are expected to reach our 250 rushing yards minimum and three of them (Foster, McCoy and Greene) are likely to enter the season as the starter. The average improvement for all candidates is 60 points and only Shonn Greene is expected to improve by more than that at the moment. The average manager expects LeSean McCoy to breakout but the expected improvement is only 56 points. Moreover, our second year breakout running backs average 249 fantasy points which means that McCoy could be a very nice bargain if he does breakout. As for Shonn Greene, he’s almost expected to reach that number already which is why we’d probably stay away from him. Foster and Scott are being drafted very late and will need to show that they deserve their playing time but Slaton and Benson are both very injury-prone. The two will get their chance in 2010 and based on their play last year, they have what it takes to breakout and could be steals late in your draft.

Third year:
Success rate: 16 of 28 – 57.1%
Dropped by 25%: 3 of 28 – 10.7%
Average improvement for all candidates: 56 points – 43.3%
Average improvement for breakout RBs: 102 points – 68.7%

2010 candidates:

There usually aren’t many running backs that respect these criteria but this year there are five. 40 of Choice’s 64 carries in 2009 came when Barber or Jones was hurt so we don’t really expect him to reach out 250 yards minimum this year unless there’s an injury. We’ll also rule out Tim Hightower, even though we believe he is undervalued, because it would be very surprising if he improved over last year. This leaves Felix Jones, Jamaal Charles and Justin Forsett who are all 1A running backs and whose number of carries will depend highly on how they perform. They are all excellent candidates to breakout and at least one of them should improve by 100 fantasy points over last year.

Fourth year:
Success rate: 10 of 32 – 31.3%
Dropped by 25%: 9 of 32 – 28.1%
Average improvement for candidates: 8 points – 4.4%
Average improvement for breakout RBs: 88 points – 55.2%

2010 candidates:

Fred Jackson and Marshawn Lynch are both hurt right now and although they should be back for week one or shortly after, neither will improve over last year because of rookie C.J. Spiller. Michael Bush on the other hand received 38 carries to McFadden’s 24 in the final three games of the 2009 season and he should continue to have a very important role in the Oakland offense. Bush is one of those players that is flying under the radar because he’s on a poor offense but a lot of things change in the NFL and if Oakland turns things around with Jason Campbell, Bush could be a huge steal. The average manager isn’t expecting him to breakout but if he does, he has the potential for 200 fantasy points.

Fifth year:
Success rate: 16 of 44 – 35.7%
Dropped by 25%: 9 of 44 – 21.4%
Average improvement for candidates: 47 points – 25.1%
Average improvement for breakout RBs: 126 points – 92.9%

2010 candidates:

Fifth year running backs have been excellent in the past but unfortunately this isn’t a great year for them. Norwood, Washington and Bell are going undrafted in a number of drafts and aren’t in very good situations. Norwood had to deal with injuries in the past few months and will have to fight for his number two job, Washington is the third RB in Seattle and Bell always seems to get hurt and is well behind McCoy on the depth chart. This leaves DeAngelo Williams who is being drafted as a top ten RB even though he will be splitting carries with Jonathan Stewart. You might want to take a chance on Norwood or Washington late in your draft in very deep leagues but other than that we recommend staying away from these guys in 2010.

Of the 16 running backs who respect our various criteria, 12 or 13 of them are expected to reach 250 rushing yards which means that about 5 should breakout and the average improvement for those is on average over 100 fantasy points.

Of the ten running backs named in this article, at least seven or eight should reach 250 rushing yards which means that based on historical statistics, three or four should breakout. The average improvement for our breakout running backs is over 100 points so one or more of these running backs could bring you a fantasy championship, you just have to pick the right ones. Based on ADP, Shonn Greene is the only player expected to improve by over 100 points so if you pick the right ones amongst the ones we listed, it could really payoff. Here is our breakdown for 2010:

Undervalued and good breakout potential:
Arian Foster
Bernard Scott
LeSean McCoy
Felix Jones
Jamaal Charles
Justin Forsett
Michael Bush

Overvalued or not expected to improve over 2009:
Shonn Greene
Tim Hightower
Fred Jackson
DeAngelo Williams

May not reach 250 rush yards or likely non-factors in their offense:
Jerious Norwood
Leon Washington
Marshawn Lynch
Mike Bell
Tashard Choice

Follow us on Twitter or through our RSS Feed to make sure you don’t miss part two of our breakout WRs article which should be released within the next few days.