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Myths and Realities of Aging and Wearing Running Backs

Over the past few seasons there have been a number of articles written about aging and wearing running backs. We used to hear that the age where a running back would drop was 31 but more recently we have also heard 30 and sometimes even 28. Many are also suggesting that payers decline when they reach 2,000 carries in their career. I decided to test out all these theories to find out once and for all, when do running backs really decline?

The first step was to look at the chances of running backs suffering injuries or not seeing the ball anymore as they get older. I decided to look at the number of running backs that had 200 touches in a given season and then see how many managed to have 200 touches in the following season as well:

As you can see, as running backs get older there is a smaller number that reach 200 touches. However, the interesting number is the percentage that can keep it up in the following year. It seems there are two interesting drops: the first one is when running backs turn 28 in the following season and the other one is when they turn 30. However, the percentage of running backs that continue to have 200 touches is higher for running backs turning 31 and 32 than for those turning 28 and 29. In other words, this would mean that running backs that manage to get past the age of 30 are not at risk until they turn 33; for me that does not make much sense. In my opinion, that 36.8% is just a coincidence and you just need to be aware that running backs who are 28 years of age or older are more at risk.

The next step is to look at whether or not running backs see a decline in performance as they get older. In this chart we will look at the average fantasy points for the running backs that had 200 touches or more in two consecutive seasons:

As you can see, until running backs turn 32 there seems to be no significant drop in performance. Running backs turning 30 actually perform better than at any other age if they get their 200 touches. This could be due to other factors and our sample is too small to come to any conclusions on that. Here is a chart where we grouped running backs who are 25 and 26 (turning 26 and 27) together and those 27 to 30 (turning 28-31) together:

As you can see, the difference between the two groups is only 2.0% or about six fantasy points which is nothing to worry about. This shows that the performance of running backs declines when they reach the age of 32 but not before that. This season, Thomas Jones falls in that category.