Ultimate Fantasy Football Strategy - ADP Analysis

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Pay What You Want Advice - Start / Sit - Trade - Waivers

ADP Analysis - Wide Receivers

Wide receivers are starting to get more and more respect on draft day and many owners are drafting them in the first or/and second round instead of drafting their starting running backs. In the past few years, many leagues have been shifting towards a more WR friendly scoring system that gives one point for every reception (PPR) and starting three WRs instead of two. I have once again added another column in the chart to see the difference between PPR and non-PPR leagues. For wide receivers, the minimums used were 70 points for non-PPR and 110 for PPR:

POS	ADP AVG	PTS AVG (Non-PPR)	PTS AVG (PPR)	POS	ADP AVG	PTS AVG (Non-PPR)	PTS AVG (PPR)
1	11	167	248	29	82	105	161
2	14	173	248	30	85	108	167
3	17	166	246	31	89	105	159
4	20	157	232	32	91	120	172
5	21	198	296	33	93	119	171
6	24	154	234	34	97	112	178
7	26	164	253	35	101	90	141
8	28	126	200	36	105	96	149
9	31	115	187	37	110	109	165
10	32	170	256	38	115	82	126
11	35	122	194	39	119	88	139
12	36	148	220	40	123	131	190
13	38	143	213	41	126	102	157
14	40	135	208	42	129	113	182
15	43	139	204	43	135	152	230
16	45	140	213	44	138	81	127
17	47	162	235	45	142	85	127
18	51	109	168	46	148	95	144
19	55	145	221	47	150	82	128
20	58	142	219	48	153	90	138
21	60	102	157	49	157	97	149
22	62	124	189	50	159	87	136
23	64	105	160	51	163	107	165
24	67	115	177	52	165	83	134
25	70	166	250	53	169	92	142
26	73	86	129	54	172	86	131
27	75	120	179	55	174	79	121
28	78	133	200	56	177	92	147

POS	ADP AVG	PTS AVG (Non-PPR)	PTS AVG (PPR)
1 to 4	15	166	243
5 to 8	25	161	246
9 to 12	33	139	214
13 to 16	42	139	210
17 to 20	53	140	211
21 to 24	63	111	171
25 to 28	74	126	190
29 to 32	87	110	165
33 to 36	99	104	160
37 to 40	117	103	155
41 to 44	132	112	174
45 to 48	148	88	134
49 to 52	161	94	146
53 to 56	173	87	136

The first thing that probably jumps out at you when you look at these charts is that there is quite a difference between the top seven WRs and the rest. There are also noticeable drops after the top 25 and also top 43. The ideal strategy would be to draft one of the top seven WRs and after that it does not seem to matter too much where you draft your other ones as long as you take your starters in the first six or seven rounds in a 12-team league. Here is another chart comparing two groups of WRs to help prove my point:

POS	ADP AVG	PTS AVG	PPR PTS AVG
8 to 16	36	138	211
17 to 25	59	130	197

There is only a difference of 8 points in a Non-PPR and 14 points in a PPR league for WRs who were drafted on average about two rounds apart. This means that by drafting a WR in the third or fourth round instead of the fifth or sixth round you can only expect on average 8 or 14 more points in a season. This shows that there is probably a better strategy than drafting your WRs in rounds three or four like many owners do. Let�s continue this analysis by looking at the tight ends.

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