Ultimate Fantasy Football Strategy - ADP Analysis

Enter your email here to join our newsletter and receive occasional updates of new content available on the site and more.

Home

About Us

Player Rankings

Strategy Articles

Draft Information

Links

Contact Us

Forums

Pay What You Want Advice - Start / Sit - Trade - Waivers

ADP Analysis - Running Backs

Running back is the position that is the most in demand on draft day and in most drafts there are usually at least eight RBs drafted in the first round of a 12-team league. There are so few good running backs, especially with the large number of running back by committee that fantasy owners will generally jump on running backs in the first two rounds. Many managers are starting to draft a WR or QB in the late first round to move away from the running back trend. Is it justified to go RB-RB in the first two rounds of your draft no matter who is available? In this chart, I have also included the average points in a system where players earn one point per reception (PPR). For running backs, the minimums used were 80 points for non-PPR and 100 for PPR. Let’s take a look:

POS	ADP AVG	PTS AVG (Non-PPR)	PTS AVG (PPR)	POS	ADP AVG	PTS AVG (Non-PPR)	PTS AVG (PPR)
1	1	309	362	25	57	208	250
2	2	279	314	26	58	178	205
3	3	142	166	27	61	167	202
4	4	196	244	28	67	122	148
5	6	221	267	29	70	175	208
6	7	150	176	30	75	150	173
7	9	202	254	31	78	132	161
8	10	205	238	32	81	130	153
9	12	166	211	33	84	151	174
10	13	120	145	34	92	109	125
11	15	151	178	35	96	130	160
12	17	171	194	36	101	95	118
13	19	167	210	37	104	83	105
14	21	146	170	38	107	113	139
15	24	165	203	39	113	138	173
16	29	151	183	40	118	106	125
17	31	178	205	41	120	108	140
18	33	125	157	42	127	131	154
19	36	180	223	43	135	81	107
20	41	194	221	44	141	139	167
21	45	149	172	45	148	102	122
22	47	136	156	46	158	81	105
23	51	110	135	47	163	87	106
24	53	112	132	48	167	89	113

POS	ADP AVG	PTS AVG (Non-PPR)	PTS AVG (PPR)
1 to 4	3	232	272
5 to 8	8	194	234
9 to 12	14	152	182
13 to 16	23	157	192
17 to 20	35	169	202
21 to 24	49	127	149
25 to 28	61	168	201
29 to 32	76	147	174
33 to 36	93	122	144
37 to 40	110	110	135
41 to 44	131	114	142
45 to 48	159	90	111

There are three noticeable drops in the charts which are after #5, after #20 and after #29. Now you didn’t need me to tell you to draft a RB if you had a top five pick in the draft but if you needed a proof that it is a no-brainer well now you have it. Now there is something very interesting to notice in these charts. The 5^th to 12^th running backs drafted have averaged only 10 more points than the 13^th to 20^th running backs to be drafted in a non-PPR system and 11 more points in a PPR system. That is a very small difference considering there is a difference of 18 in average draft position for the two groups.

This seems to indicate that there is not much point in drafting RBs in the late first round or early second round since they only earn a few more points than the ones drafted in the third round or fourth round. However, as mentioned previously, there is a noticeable drop after the 21^st RB so you definitely want to have two running backs on your team by the middle of the fourth round but these tables do seem to question the common RB-RB strategy. FantasyStrategies.com also offers an interesting strategy for drafting running backs.

The final drop is somewhere in the seventh round for a 12-team league so by then you will definitely want to have three RBs on your team and possibly even four depending on who your starters are. It’s important to remember however that I am looking at average draft position so these are general trends to consider but nothing is set in stone. If you have a RB you love that falls to you in the late first or early second round he could be a very good choice but just be aware that he is no guarantee and you should consider your other options. Let’s take a look at the wide receivers next and see how they compare.

Quarterbacks

Wide Receivers

Newsletter