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Predicting the Top 10 Wide Receivers Based on Historical Trends

Year after year there are surprises and disappointments in the NFL even though before the season starts many seem convinced that they can predict the top five or ten players at each position. We decided to look at past seasons to try and predict which players will finish in the top ten and where the top ten in pre-season rankings will end up at the end of season. This is more of a fun article that will likely make us look foolish at the end of the season and we do not recommend drafting based on this but it offers a different perspective and hopefully will make everyone understand that there are no sure things in the NFL. In the third article of this series of three we will look at the wide receiver position.

Where does the pre-season top 10 end up?

2009 top 5 pre-season wide receivers:
Larry Fitzgerald
Andre Johnson
Randy Moss
Calvin Johnson
Reggie Wayne

Will remain in the top 5:
Our Prediction: Larry Fitzgerald and Randy Moss
Larry Fitzgerald and Randy Moss are not our two favorite receivers for the 2008 season but they are the most likely to remain in the top five. Moss has missed only six games in his NFL career and it is very hard to believe that he could finish outside the top five with Brady as his quarterback. Fitzgerald is somewhat of an injury risk, like Johnson, but he’s been a top five receiver in three of the last four seasons. Johnson, Fitzgerald and Moss should all finish amongst the five best receivers but history shows that on average no more than two do so we had to leave out Johnson. The most likely scenario that would explain a drop outside the top ten for Johnson would be an injury to him or Matt Schaub

Will finish in the 6 to 10 range:
Our Prediction: Reggie Wayne
Wayne has played every game in the past seven seasons and will be the clear #1 receiver in this offense. Even though we have Johnson ahead of Wayne in our rankings, Wayne is a safer option because he stays healthy and because of the offense he is on. We don’t believe that the #1 WR on a healthy Colts team can finish outside the top ten, especially with Harrison gone.

Will finish in the 11 to 20 range:
Our Prediction: Andre Johnson
As much as we like Andre Johnson this year and believe he will be the best receive in 2009, he had not finished amongst the top ten receivers until last year. He has been one of the best with Schaub as his quarterback but he is still the most likely to finish outside the top ten.

Will finish outside the top 20:
Our Prediction: Calvin Johnson
The Lions second overall pick in 2007 had a very impressive sophomore season finishing the year as the third best receiver in fantasy football. However, Johnson ranked 17th in the NFL for receptions and his yards per reception and touchdown numbers were higher than normal. Instead of catching one touchdown every 6.5 catches like last year, he will likely go back to about one for every 9 or 10 receptions. Add to that a small drop in yards per reception and Johnson drops at least outside the top ten receivers and possibly much more depending on the kind of season the Lions have in 2009.

2009 pre-season 6 to 10 running backs:
Greg Jennings
Steve Smith
Roddy White
Anquan Boldin
Marques Colston

Will move into the top 5:
Our Prediction: Marques Colston
Colston struggled in 2009 due to a thumb injury which he suffered in the first game of the year but he bounced back and caught 31 passes in the final five games of the year. He had caught 168 passes in the two previous seasons and showed that he is one of the best receivers in the NFL. Colston will get his #1 WR job back this season and has all the tools to be a top five receiver for the first time in his career, if he stays healthy.

Will remain in the 6 to 10 range:
Our Prediction: Steve Smith
Despite missing four games in the past three years, Smith has been a pretty consistent receiver since coming back from his leg injury suffered in the 2004 season. The Carolina offense has not changed much since last year and Smith should be able to remain in the top ten even if his yards per catch average drops (like it should).

Will finish in the 11 to 20 range:
Our Prediction: Greg Jennings
Greg Jennings has been very impressive in the past two seasons and finished the 2008 seasons as the seventh best receiver in fantasy football. Jennings should catch as many passes as he did last year but his yards per catch and touchdowns could drop slightly and leave him out of the top ten. Nonetheless Jennings is a very safe choice this season since the Green Bay offense will be very similar to 2008 and the young receivers are still ways behind him and Driver on the depth chart.

Will finish outside the top 20:
Our Prediction: Anquan Boldin and Roddy White
Despite his excellent season in 2004, Boldin is a risk to drop out of the top 20 since he has missed at least four games in three of the last five years and suffered a hamstring injury which has prevented him from practicing in the past two weeks. Boldin also asked to be traded during the off-season and doesn’t seem very happy in Arizona. Roddy White has caught 171 passes in the past two seasons but the Falcons added Tony Gonzalez this off-season so White will not be targeted nearly as often. In our player projections we have White at number 22 so it would not be a surprise at all to see him outside the top 20 even if he plays all 16 games.

Where was the top 10 drafted?

Will finish in the top 5:
Three of them as we mentioned previously should come from the pre-season top ten in Fitzgerald, Moss and Colston. This leaves one spot for a player in the 11 to 15 range and one more for a player in the 16 to 30 range. Between Welker, Owens, Bowe, Houshmandzadeh and Ochocinco we have to go with Terrell Owens. He has been a top five receiver five times in the past nine years with two different teams so and was the sixth best with a third team. Owens will make the Bills a much better team and could be a top five receiver if Edwards steps up his game. The other choice is much tougher since we don’t see anyone in the 15 to 30 range with a decent chance to move into the top five but we decided to go with Brandon Marshall. He is the most talented receiver in this group and it is up to him whether or not he decides to grow up and play football. If he does, he has the ability to catch over 100 passes for a third consecutive season and with a little luck could be a top five receiver.
Our Prediction: L. Fitzgerald, R. Moss, M. Colston, T. Owens, B. Marshall

Will finish in the 6 to 10 range:
Two of the players from this group should come from the pre-season top ten (as mentioned previously) and they are Reggie Wayne and Steve Smith. This leaves three spots which should come from the 11 to 20 range, 21 to 30 range and outside the top 30. In the 11 to 20 range we had to go with Wes Welker who finished tenth in each of the past two seasons and this year, he should get into the end zone more than he did last year. In the 21 to 30 range, the only receiver with a chance of moving into the top 10 in our opinion is Anthony Gonzalez. In both 2004 and 2006 the Colts managed to have two receivers in the top ten and they could do it again in 2009 if their offensive line stays healthy. Choosing a player from outside the top 30 always involves a lot of guessing but this year we strongly believe that Torry Holt has a chance to be a top ten receiver with the Jaguars. He has been a top ten receiver in six of the past nine years and despite a tough season in 2008, he is still only 33. This year Holt will be on a much better offense with a much better quarterback and will be the #1 target in the passing game. We have Holt slightly lower than this in our rankings but we wouldn’t be surprised to see him finish in the top ten.
Our Prediction: R. Wayne, S. Smith, W. Welker, A. Gonzalez and T. Holt

Coming up tomorrow: How to pick players for week one.